FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for September 22
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB lineups. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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Thursday MLB schedule kicks off at 7:05PM EST with a 10 game FanDuel MLB slate to choose from!
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher % | Hitter % | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 255.4 | $ 8,645 | 25% | 75% | $ 3,294 | 7.30 |
| 5 Day | 241.5 | $ 9,200 | 26% | 74% | $ 3,225 | 6.90 |
| Prev Day | 250.5 | $ 11,300 | 32% | 68% | $ 2,963 | 7.16 |
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
Looking over the main slate, I can certainly see the merit in paying up for David Price or Justin Verlander however it may be a better point per dollar move to slide down in price for your starting pitcher. Both aces are putting up over 40 points per game over the last month however Price has a dangerous match up in Baltimore and Verlander will be facing wet and cold weather in Minnesota.
Seth Lugo ($7,700) may be one of the best point per dollar plays on the day and allows you incredible flexibility when building your lineup due to his reasonable price point.
Over the last 30 days, only Verlander and Price have averaged more than Lugo’s 36 points per game and his presence in the Mets rotation has been one of the biggest reasons for the Mets postseason run!
Lugo comes into the game as a solid home favorite and faces a Phillies team that has put up the highest strikeout rate (27.7%) of any team in baseball over the last 30 days.
I expect Lugo will go overlooked and considering Lugo has put up 42 points in 3 of his last 5 starts, he has the ability to deliver a top pitching performance at a fraction of the cost.
Angels bats versus Mike Fiers: One of my favorite spots for offense on this slate is to attack Mike Fiers with the Angels lineup as I expect this game in Houston to provide one of the best spots for offense.
Fiers is a difficult pitcher to figure out from a DFS perspective as he has a high ground ball rate but also has elevated (33%+) hard contact rates to hitters from both sides of the plate. Fiers actually exhibits reverse splits, especially at home this season, giving up a .349 wOBA and .500 slugging percentage to right-handed batters.
Mike Trout ($4,300) is the best bat on the slate and with two high-priced pitchers in play, we may see Trout under owned across the board. In Wednesday night’s slate, Trout was under 10% owned in large field tournaments as the high dollar pitching choices made it difficult to fit Trout in. To be able to get the best hitter in baseball at single digit ownership is incredible and I will go back to the well with Trout on Thursday.
Albert Pujols ($3,000) feels entirely too cheap at this price and is easy to stack alongside Trout while attacking the same righty-righty match up. I will continue to utilize Andrelton Simmons ($2,600) who bats in the heart of the Angels order and is constantly overlooked despite his prime lineup position.
Gary Sanchez ($4,100): Honestly at this point, can you afford to fade Sanchez on a small slate? After another two home runs on Wednesday I expect the ownership will be through the roof on Thursday and although the strategic fade is in play, I see this as a spot to eat the chalk and go contrarian elsewhere. I also like the idea of pairing Trout and Sanchez as I do not expect most gamers will look to pay over $4k for both bats in the same lineup!
Below you will find my initial lineup for Thursday’s Main FanDuel MLB slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.
Pitcher: Seth Lugo ($7,700)
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Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Best of luck tonight gamers!