Texans at Patriots: Odds, trends, and more

With uncertainty at QB, are the Patriots a completely unknown quantity going into their Thursday night game against the Texans?

Without Jimmy Garoppolo, the Patriots are two point underdogs at home against the Texans. We know what happens when the Patriots are underdogs; just ask the Arizona Cardinals how that went in Week 1. But things COULD be different on Thursday. I say could because nobody knows for sure what exactly quarterback Jacoby Brissett can do.

He’s in line for the start on Thursday, but according to Ed Werder of ESPN, the Pats have not ruled out Garoppolo yet.

Knowing Bill Belichick, this isn’t a puzzling move. The Texans will have to prepare for both quarterbacks, but I find it hard to imagine we will see Garoppolo in this game. He’s no doubt the future of this football team. Why risk further damage to his shoulder when you’re going to get your future Hall of Famer, four-time Super Bowl champ Tom Brady, back in one more game. Miracles can happen, but unless Garoppolo is near 100 percent, it’s useless in playing him, especially up against a top three pass rush in football.

Typically in a Bill Belichick gameplan, the Patriots will erase the opponents best player. On offense, that would be receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The four-year superstar out of Clemson has racked up 1,000 receiving yards in each of his past three seasons. It’s not that he has been a non-factor against New England, but rather that the Patriots have done a phenomenal job limiting his production.

Here are a couple highlights on how they did so in last year’s Week 14 match-up:

Early in the game on this third and long, New England is in a two-man look with two high safeties (not seen on the screen) playing deep halves and the corners underneath playing man. Brian Hoyer is hit before he can deliver the ball to his running back, who looked to be the intended receiverl. Hopkins gets an inside release on Ryan, but he stays with Hopkins’ hip. The pressure is the real issue here for the Texans, but with Brock Osweiler now at quarterback, they’re getting better play at the position.

On a crucial fourth and four in the second half, the Texans needed a first down to gain some momentum as a field goal would have done them no good. New England takes away Hopkins by assigning safety Devin McCourty to take away anything on the inside as Ryan trails him.

A better offensive line, and a better quarterback could make plays like the ones above turn into splash plays like this.

Next: 5 things to know about the Houston Texans

Odds

New England are two-point home underdogs solely because of the fact that they’re likely to start an inexperienced rookie at quarterback. The over/under for the game is 41. New England is 10-1 in their last 11 games at the home underdog.