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Falcons at Saints: Odds, trends and more

By John Buhler

Jan 3, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman (24) runs against New Orleans Saints defensive back Brian Dixon (20) during the second half at the Georgia Dome. The Saints defeated the Falcons 20-17. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 3, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman (24) runs against New Orleans Saints defensive back Brian Dixon (20) during the second half at the Georgia Dome. The Saints defeated the Falcons 20-17. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /
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The New Orleans Saints (0-2) host the Atlanta Falcons (1-1) in Week 3 on Monday Night Football. Here are the betting odds and trends to know about the game.

The New Orleans Saints (0-2) will host their arch nemesis Atlanta Falcons (1-1) in a huge NFC South rivalry game on Monday Night Football here in Week 3. Kickoff is at 8:30 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Television coverage will be provided by ESPN.

This will be the 95th meeting between these two Southeastern rivals. While Atlanta has the all-time edge in the series at 49-45, the Saints swept the Falcons in 2015. Atlanta swept New Orleans back in 2014. This game is always interesting, and Las Vegas knows what it’s doing with the point spread.

According to OddsShark.com, the Saints are a three-point home favorite on the Falcons. That’s what it should be. The home team in this rivalry series should be a three-point favorite as long as Drew Brees and Matt Ryan are both under center for their respective teams. The money lines are New Orleans -160 and Atlanta +140. This game’s over/under comes in at 53.5 combined points.

Odds

Point Spread: New Orleans -3

Moneylines: New Orleans -160, Atlanta +140

Over/Under: 53.5

On the young 2016 NFL season, Atlanta has scored 59 points while also surrendering 59 points. Naturally, the Falcons enter the game at 1-1. The Saints haven’t been as lucky. They’ve lost by a combined four points in their two defeats. We should expect a close game on Monday Night Football.

Here are a few trends to keep in mind with regards to the Falcons:

1.) Atlanta has been terrible against the spread in the Falcons’ last 14 games, going 3-11. They did cover last week in Oakland by upsetting the Raiders.

2.) Atlanta is 3-8 straight up in its last 11 games.

3.) The Falcons have gone under in 10 of their last 12 games.

For the Saints, keep an eye on these trends:

1.) The Saints are 5-2 in their last seven games against the spread.

2.) New Orleans is 4-9-1 in the Saints’ last 14 home games against the spread.

3.) The Saints have gone over in their last five home games.

This game feels like a certain shootout. With Atlanta scoring an average 29.5 points per game in 2016 and the Saints’ always porous secondary, it is a wise move to go with the over.

In terms of the point spread, it is where it needs to be at three points to the home team New Orleans. Both teams need this win for different reasons. New Orleans doesn’t want to go 0-3 with a loss to its biggest rival. The Saints are the only team in the NFC South without a win this season.

For Atlanta, head coach Dan Quinn has gone an awful 1-6 in NFC South play. Atlanta has the toughest 2016 schedule based on combined records from last season. The Falcons haven’t lost three in a row to the Saints since Atlanta lost four straight from 2010 to 2012.

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If the spread increases even half a point, take Atlanta. Should it decrease by just half a point, take New Orleans. Three points is what it needs to be. Probably go straight up instead of dealing with the spread in this one.

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