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NFL Week 4: Five best bets

By Jeff Glauser

Sep 25, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Minnesota Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen (97) reacts after making a sack in the fourth quarter. The Vikings defeated the Panthers 22-10 at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 25, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Minnesota Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen (97) reacts after making a sack in the fourth quarter. The Vikings defeated the Panthers 22-10 at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports /
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Dec 27, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) is sacked by Minnesota Vikings defensive end Brian Robison (96) during the second quarter at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 27, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) is sacked by Minnesota Vikings defensive end Brian Robison (96) during the second quarter at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports /

In every NFL season, there are times when very little seems to make sense during a given week’s schedule of games. Week 3 was one of those times.

It was a time when the betting novice may question him or herself: Are the St. Louis Rams actually not terrible? Are the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings contenders? Is it time to write the Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals off?

All could be true — and odds are a couple might be — but that’s why, in gambling and in golf, there are mulligans. And in the words of the legendary coach Jim “PLAYOFFS??” Mora, there are still 13 GAMES TO PLAY! THIRTEEN GAMES!

Your post-game sound bites never get old, Jim.

The good people at FiftyFourPercent.com emphasize how placing bets on the NFL is a marathon, not a sprint. Last week, like many others navigating through mass amounts of unpredictability, they tripped on their shoelaces. But fortunately, they possess ample amounts of catch-up speed and stamina.

On the docket this week:

  • The Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants. If it wasn’t for a late-game choke by the G-Men, we’d be talking about a 6-0 combined record between one team minus its two franchise players and the other that was supposed to be in rebuild mode.
  • The Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams. Raise your hand if you had the Rams with a better record than the Cards going into Week 4. Put your hand down, Coach Fisher.
  • The Oakland Raiders and Baltimore Ravens. Raise your hand if you had this as a very possible AFC playoff preview going into the season. Put your hand down, anyone.
  • The New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. Raise your hand if you had the fan in the third row playing quarterback for the Pats on Sunday. It could happen.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs. One of the better Sunday night match-ups we’ve seen in a while. Sorry, Family Guy.

Odds are based on consensus sportsbook lines through Wednesday, September 28.

Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) vs. New York Giants

FiftyFourPercent:

Mike Zimmer, backed by a top-notch coaching staff, is entering into the top coaches discussion. Minnesota is 27-9 against the spread since Zimmer took over in 2014. The Vikings have covered 16 of their last 18 games, which is 89 percent. The Giants threw $200 million down to make defensive repairs, but the Vikings don’t have a defensive weakness and now have a huge home-field advantage with their glitzy, new $16 billion indoor stadium. The noise level at U.S. Bank Stadium can match any facility, including Seattle’s outdoor Century Link Field.

Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Asiata combined for 1,108 rushing yards and 71 receptions in 2014 when Adrian Peterson had to miss nearly that entire season. The sad truth is the 31-year-old Peterson was showing his age, averaging 1.6 yards per carry on 31 attempts before suffering his knee injury. Sam Bradford provides Minnesota better quarterbacking than it was getting from Teddy Bridgewater, whose main asset was down-the-road potential.

Combine an improved Vikings offense with a defense that yielded 14 points to the Packers, 16 points to the Titans and a mere 10 to the Panthers and you have yourself a serious Super Bowl contender. The Giants don’t have the necessary power ground attack to combat the Vikings and set up Eli Manning against this quality of defense in this most difficult of settings. Unlike the Vikings, the Giants commit lots of turnovers and penalties.

Glauser:

As the late, great Vikings Coach Dennis Green would say, I’m not ready to crown Minnesota’s asses just yet (and just like that, it’s Homage to Former Coach Quotes Day!). Yes, Bradford and the running-back-by-committee has held the fort thus far. But Bradford is still just one sack away from tearing something important on his body and, to terribly paraphrase somebody (probably a former coach), if you have two starting running backs, you have zero starting running backs, especially when all of them are averaging two yards per carry, allowing a formidable Giants front seven to stack the box and dare Bradford to beat them, a tall task.

That said, the Giants also have a running game in flux and a quarterback known to give games away (although he also has two rings, so there). Regardless, both teams are likely overachieving at this juncture, but both will position themselves quite in winnable divisions with a victory here.

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