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NL Wild Card 2016: 5 reasons Mets will win

By Nathaniel Reeves

May 28, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
May 28, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports /
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Oct 2, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy (15) look on during the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 2, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy (15) look on during the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports /

4. The Giants have plenty of red flags after late-season collapse 

At the All-Star break, the Giants had the best record in the Majors at 57-33 and were basically a lock for the postseason with a 6.5-game lead in the NL West over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Since then, the Giants have gone 30-42 and had to battle down to the last day to hold off the St. Louis Cardinals in the Wild Card race.

San Francisco salvaged the season by winning their last four games, including a sweep over the Dodgers. Still, a few big concerns emerged for the roster, which could mean trouble in the Wild Card Game against a tough opponent.

The biggest culprit for San Francisco’s woes down the stretch was the bullpen, especially at the back end. San Francisco had a staggering eight blown saves in the first three weeks of September, as closer Santiago Casilla melted down.

Hunter Strickland also struggled in the final month, while Javier Lopez has fallen off as a shutdown lefty from previous years. There’s still enough talent in the Giants’ bullpen – Will Smith is an effective high-leverage reliever and Derek Law has been very good – but Bruce Bochy is going to have a tough time trusting the unit to protect a lead.

While the bullpen warranted the most attention, the Giants’ offense also struggled for much of the second half outside of Brandon Belot. After posting terrific first half numbers, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence and Brandon Crawford were all around league average in August and September, and the Giants didn’t have the depth to make up for it.

The Giants are a better team then their second half record indicates, but a cold offense and shaky bullpen is a lot to overcome against Syndergaard, even with a terrific pitcher in Bumgarner on the mound.

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