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ALDS 2016: 5 reasons Texas Rangers will win

Sep 30, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre (29) and shortstop Elvis Andrus (1) smile while warming up before the sixth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 30, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre (29) and shortstop Elvis Andrus (1) smile while warming up before the sixth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
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Baseball got the division series matchup it wanted; here are five reasons the Texas Rangers will down the Toronto Blue Jays.

From bat flips to sucker punches, the rivalry that has been brewing between the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays is one of the best in baseball. Last fall’s ALDS between these two teams will forever go down in baseball lore. A controversial play allowed the Rangers to take the lead late in Game 5.

Then this happened.

The Rangers did not allow last October’s disappointment to carry over to this season. All they did was go out and win the most games in the American League. At the trade deadline, they made their team stronger at catcher, designated hitter and in the bullpen. The Rangers were a young team last year, but with an extra year of experience, this rematch could go their way.

Here are five reasons the ALDS will end with a Rangers win this time around.

Sep 25, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Marco Estrada (25) sets to pitch in the second inning against New York Yankees at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 25, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Marco Estrada (25) sets to pitch in the second inning against New York Yankees at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

5. The Jays are starting off on the wrong foot

The Blue Jays could have started their best pitcher in Game 1. Aaron Sanchez would have been fully rested and ready to go. Instead, John Gibbons tabbed Marco Estrada to pitch the first game of the series. It’s an interesting decision to say the least.

Estrada was one of the best stories in baseball last season, emerging from obscurity to become one of the most effective pitchers in the league. This year, he took a step backwards due to a lingering back injury that has affected his command at times.

Armed with one of the best changeups in the league, Estrada gets by on deception and can induce weak contact. Because of his back injury, his walk rate jumped to 3.3 per nine this season, and he posted a 4.27 ERA in the second half of the year.

Aaron Sanchez should have been the easy choice to start Game 1 coming off a near no-hitter against the Boston Red Sox. Even J.A. Happ would have been a safer bet, also on normal rest. Estrada has manged to do just enough to win while dealing with his back injury, but how will it hold up after a longer-than-normal span between starts? If the Rangers can stay patient and lay off Estrada’s changeups outside of the strike zone, they will capitalize on his underwhelming fastball.