FanDuel NFL: Running Backs Week 5
By Matt Rogers
FanDuel NFL: Running Backs Week 5 is a column highlighting the best player, most affordable, and best value options for your FanDuel NFL lineups focusing on salary versus expected points. The intention of this article is to help you build your FanDuel NFL lineup for the most likely big payday each week.
I like to lean on FantasyPros for weekly point projections, the information is a result of consensus from many fantasy football experts. I check the point projection results, which update daily, with the salary set by FanDuel for players each week. Entering week 5, we’ll continue to see salaries fluctuate, as we learn who the top Running Backs will be for the 2016 season. This week, there are four teams on a ‘bye’, so we can already cut the following players from our lineups:
To help you optimize your FanDuel NFL lineups each week, we’re focusing on the Most Points, Best Affordable, and Most Value options. This article will focus on the Running Backs position. Here’s a brief description of each category:
- Most Projected Points – Evaluation of top projected point options from FantasyPros
- Best Affordable – Your most affordable, best player, options leaving you with enough money for good players in other positions
- Most Value – Identify the cheapest players with the highest upside
Now, let’s take a look at the players everyone’s targeting:
Next: Most Projected Points - RB
Most Projected Points – RB
Le’Veon Bell ($8,600 / 17.6) had quite the welcome back to the NFL party last week, scoring 20.3 FanDuel NFL RB points in one game, on a $8,300 salary. That’s a reasonable salary for the amount of points he scored. FantasyPros has Bell projected 2nd among running backs. Even though Bell looked fantastic last week, and is fresh with no injury concerns, I’m concerned about his matchup this week. The Jets passing defense has been atrocious, but somehow they’ve been able to maintain the 2nd best run defense in the NFL, behind only Green Bay. Giving up so many passing yards and losing three out of four games may wear down the defensive line of the Jets, but there’s little evidence that’s happening going into their battle with the Steelers this week. I’m avoiding Bell in week 5.
The top projected FanDuel NFL running back for week 5 is David Johnson ($9,000 / 18). I rarely like to pay for the top running back options, because you can usually do better paying in the high $7,000 or low $8,000 and save salary for a nice QB/WR combination. However, this week, David Johnson is facing a San Francisco 49ers running defense, who’s last in the NFL. The 49ers are giving up 140.5 yards per game, and 4.3 yards per rushing attempt. Their defense allows teams like the Cardinals to slow the game down after they take a lead. Also, the Cardinals are likely without Carson Palmer this week (Concussion). Even if Palmer plays, Arizona will lean on DJ to grind out some yards. Johnson is also a big player in the passing game, and if the Cardinals use Stanton at QB, you’ll likely see a lot of short-yardage passing attempts to David. Johnson is averaging 18.5 FanDuel NFL points per game, 3rd in the NFL for running backs. This week, he should be the top running back.
Four weeks into the 2016 NFL season, DeMarco Murray ($8,400 / 16.1) leads all running backs in FanDuel NFL points per game, with 21.78. That’s an incredibly high number, especially considering Murray has hovered around the $7,000 salary mark most of the year. For week 5, Murray’s salary has climbed to $8,400. That’s still reasonable. This week, the Titans take on a Miami defense whose 29th in the NFL defending rushing yards per game. The Dolphins have forced five fumbles and only given up two rushing touchdowns, but DeMarco should be able to gain around 100 rushing yards this week and he’s been able to be effective in the passing game as well. If you’re avoiding Thursday Night’s game this week, DeMarco Murray is your next best option, after David Johnson.
Rounding out the top five are C.J. Anderson ($8,000 / 15.2) and Ezekiel Elliott ($7,900 / 14.8). After a dynamic first two games, Anderson has cooled off against the Bengals and Buccaneers. In Tampa, Anderson found the end zone, but he had few rushing yards and only one receiving target. C.J. has a favorable matchup against the Falcons this week, but I’m more confident in Murray and David Johnson, and I’m not sure he’s worth the $8K salary week 5.
Elliott started the season sputtering against the Giants, and fumbling twice against the Redskins. However, Zeke seemed focused against the Bears and 49ers, rushing over 135+ yards each game and finding the end zone twice against the Bears and once against the 49ers. However, the Bears and 49ers rushing defense has been terrible this year. This week, Elliott faces a top 15 Cincinnati Bengals defense. I suspect we may see a pull-back in Zeke’s performance week 5.
Next: Best Affordable - RB
Best Affordable – RB
In the 2016 NFL season, Melvin Gordon is either rushing for big yards, or scoring multiple touchdowns, or both. This is the Gordon many fantasy football team owners were expecting from Melvin in his 2015 rookie debut. Gordon just needed a year to get his feet wet. Through four games, Melvin has six touchdowns. So even though Gordon is only rushing for 3.2 yards per carry, he’s a lock to get at least one touchdown each game. Also, Gordon is averaging 18.48 FanDuel NFL points per game, 4th among all running backs.
This week, Gordon and the Chargers are playing a Oakland Raiders team who has struggled on the defensive side of the ball. The Raiders have given up over 134 yards/game, 31st in the NFL. With Gordon getting one to two touchdowns a game, adding a few big rushing gains should land Gordon among the top fantasy running backs in week 5.
Rookie Jordan Howard ($7,200 / 13.9), a 5th round running back out of Indiana, had an impressive week against the Lions, earning 13 FanDuel NFL points all through rushing and receiving yards. This week the Bears face an Indianapolis Colts run defense on the fringe between mediocre and bad. The Colts are giving up 105.8 rushing yards per game, 18th in the NFL. The Colts are also giving up over one rushing touchdown per game. So this is a chance for Howard to finally get into the end zone. Paying $7,200 for someone likely to get over 13 FanDuel NFL points, is a reasonable bargain in week 5.
Next: Most Value - RB
Most Value – RB
The Baltimore Ravens seem to have found their running back, Terrance West ($6,400 / 11). The Ravens have had an on-again off-again relationship with Justin Forsett. At first, it looked as though the Ravens were moving on from Forsett, cutting him at the end of the pre-season. However, Baltimore quickly re-signed Justin as the season began. The Ravens are also keen on Kenneth Dixon, a rookie out of Louisiana Tech. But Dixon has struggled with injuries recently. Last week, against the Oakland Raiders, the Ravens finally made a decision to stick with West. Terrance had 21 rushing attempts for 113 yards and a rushing touchdown. West ended the day with 17.3 FanDuel NFL points, 12th among all running backs in week 4.
Terrance had an incredibly low $4,900 salary in week 4. Clearly FanDuel’s salary model didn’t expect West would start, nor get the bulk of the Ravens’ carries. So in week 4, Terrance West was easily the best Running Back value for DFS. In week 5, West salary increased $1,500 to $6,400. Still, that’s a cheap salary. Also, West is playing a Washington Redskins run defense giving up 133 yards/game, 30th in the NFL. The Redskins have also given up two rushing touchdowns per game this year, tied with the Saints for worst in the NFL. West should have another big game against a very terrible Redskins run defense. Plug Terrance West into your lineup to give you salary in other positions, and still get a high point return for week 5.
Wrapping up, the top running back plays of the week are David Johnson on Thursday Night and DeMarco Murray this weekend. The top affordable options are Melvin Gordon and Jordan Howard, but Terrance West provides fantastic value this week and should be in every lineup.