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NHL season preview 2016-17: Ottawa Senators

By Dave Stevenson

Mandatory Credit: Andre Ringuette/NHLI via Getty Images Mandatory Credit: Jana Chytilova/NHLI via Getty Images
Mandatory Credit: Andre Ringuette/NHLI via Getty Images Mandatory Credit: Jana Chytilova/NHLI via Getty Images /
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The Ottawa Senators had a very disappointing season in 2015-16, finishing with a 38-35-9 record, good (or bad, depending on how you look at it) for 18th in the league. This after they made the playoffs in 2014-15. Ottawa’s offense was good — they finished in the top 10 in goals scored — but their defense allowed the third most goals in the NHL.

They fired head coach Dave Cameron and brought in Guy Boucher, formerly of the Tampa Bay Lightning, who has a history of getting the most out of his players. But will he be able to take the Senators to the playoffs in 2016-17?

Offseason review

Here is a quick review of what the Senators have done this offseason.

Additions: C Derick Brassard (Rangers), C Chris Kelly (Bruins), D Patrick Sieloff (Flames)

Losses: D Patrick Wiercioch (Avalanche) C Mika Zibanejad (Rangers)

Retained: F Mike Hoffman, D Cody Ceci

The Senators traded Mika Zibanejad in exchange for Derick Brassard, who’s already been paid most of the money on his current contract. Zibanejad could be due for a huge raise after this season if he plays well, but Ottawa is getting a very good center in Brassard, even if his best years might be behind him.

Chris Kelly is a decent depth acquisition. It remains to be seen how much he’ll be able to contribute after missing most of last season with a significant hip injury, but he’ll help the Senators in all the faceoffs Zibanejad took.

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It’s encouraging the Senators are keeping Mike Hoffman. He’s one of the best goal scorers in the NHL, despite not seeing much playing time, and expect him to flourish under his old head coach. Boucher definitely got the most out of Hoffman during his junior career, so their relationship should be a huge benefit to Hoffman. Hoffman constantly found himself in Cameron’s doghouse despite some pretty impressive results.

The Senators don’t know precisely what they have in Cody Ceci. He has shown flashes of brilliance but has been very inconsistent. A long-term contract never made sense for the Senators, but his two-year deal should allow them to further evaluate Ceci.

Player spotlight: Erik Karlsson

On paper, Erik Karlsson had a very successful 2015-16 season. He led all NHL defensemen in points with 82 and became the first defenseman to lead the league in assists since Bobby Orr. When you do something only Orr has done, you’re in extremely good company.

Despite being nothing short of stellar for the Senators, Karlsson didn’t win the Norris Trophy. While his numbers were certainly deserving of the award, he likely suffered because he played for a bad team. Karlsson has a reputation for being a liability on defense but that’s simply untrue. Ottawa’s struggles were not due to Karlsson.

Don’t think for a second Karlsson is fine with his 2015-16 season. He seems motivated and ready to find a way to keep improving his game. If Karlsson finds a way to improve, the NHL could be in a lot of trouble. He’s already the most dynamic blue line weapon since at least Paul Coffey. The Ottawa Senators need Karlsson to lead them both on offense and defense.

There is perhaps no player in the NHL more important and valuable to his team than Karlsson. He accounts for so much of their offense and plays during all situations. Karlsson’s abilities aren’t even suited for the penalty kill, yet he still kills penalties. The Senators will need Karlsson to be at the top of his game to contend in 2016-17. But as long as they have him, they’ll always have a shot.

2016-17 outlook

Their coaching change should certainly help their playoff chances. Cameron was simply not getting the job done with the Ottawa Senators. His system failed to take advantage of the player’s gifts, he never made the necessary adjustments for the Senators to contend and his public feud with Hoffman didn’t help anyone.

Boucher had some success with the Lightning. He has learned quite a bit since his last stint in the NHL, so expect to see Boucher make far more adjustments and be willing to adapt his system more than Cameron. The best coaches in the NHL are the ones who are the best at adapting and utilizing talent. Boucher is good at both. Wing Bobby Ryan should be happy with the coaching change.

That said, the Ottawa Senators still have some issues on their blue line. Karlsson is outstanding and Dion Phaneuf is better than he’s given credit for, but Cody Ceci and Marc Methot are both inconsistent. They’ll be relying quite a bit on those four guys to eat up minutes.

The Senators should be pretty strong down the middle. Kyle Turris and Brassard are two very solid centers, as is Jean-Gabriel Pageau. Kelly provides them with valuable center depth. Zack Smith likely isn’t scoring on over 20 percent of his shots again, but he’s still a good option.

The Senators have a chance to contend in 2016-17. They have enough elite talent it’s impossible to rule them out. But it will ultimately be up to their role players to step up because hockey is a team game. Don’t rule out goalies Craig Anderson and Andrew Hammond doing well enough to sneak the Senators into the playoffs either.