Tom Brady’s return has made the New England Patriots 10-point favorites against the Cleveland Browns in Week 5.
Naturally, these Brady led Pats are widely expected to cover the spread. Yet while he’ll obviously be fired-up for his first game back, some rust should still be expected from No. 12.
Browns defensive coordinator Ray Horton knows how to slow Brady down, having enjoyed success in the past. His task will be made easier if Rob Gronkowski’s troublesome hamstring continues to slow down the best tight end in the NFL.
No matter who catches his passes, Brady will struggle if the Patriots can’t establish balance. Although, it shouldn’t be a problem for a team with a smartly schemed, power-based running game.
Odds
Line: NE (-10)
Over/Under: 47
If so, a Browns front seven lacking game-wreckers along the line will soon be overwhelmed. Then the Patriots will do their part for those who bet on the OVER, with the initial line set at 47, per OddsShark.
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The over will look like a stronger bet if the Cleveland offense establishes its own dominance on the ground. It’s possible for a rushing attack currently topping the league’s charts thanks to Isaiah Crowell’s penchant for the big play.
The Browns’ excellence lugging the rock will be tested by a heavy Patriots front seven. New England packs size into the trenches, especially tackle duo Malcom Brown and Alan Branch, along with mammoth mike linebacker Dont’a Hightower.
Crowell has averaged 7.1 yards a carry when attacking the middle, per ESPN, but that’s where the Pats are strongest. Something has to give between a quality rushing attack and an unforgiving run front. OddsShark’s Joe Osborne highlighted this as the statistical matchup bettors should know:
"In comparing defenses, the New England Patriots own the league’s No. 11-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 92 yards per game when on the road. Cleveland, on the other hand, rates No. 5 this week in generating rushing yards at home."
Keeping the ball on the ground can help the Browns stay in touch, but the game will ultimately be decided by Brady. He inspired a pair of wins by 17 points more on the road last season, according to Osborne.
It’s what will be expected from these Patriots this week. However, Horton can flip the script by showing Brady a myriad of sophisticated zone pressure. If that happens, an underrated Cleveland offense can score enough points to not only keep things close but also wreck the Pats’ chances of covering the spread.
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After all, the Browns have their own bevy of talent at the skill positions in Crowell, fellow running back Duke Johnson and wide receiver Terrelle Pryor. This one should be closer than the oddsmakers think.