Tom Brady’s return is the last thing the 0-4 Cleveland Browns need ahead of hosting the New England Patriots in Week 5.
The onus now goes onto the 22nd-ranked defense in the league to try and stop the quarterback with a live-in chip perched permanently on his shoulder. Still, it’s not all doom and gloom for the Cleveland Browns as they prepare for Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.
Sure, the defense is struggling, but coordinator Ray Horton has a play to frustrate Brady and the Patriots. Cleveland also owns the top-rated running game in the NFL, a weapon capable of keeping Brady stewing on the sidelines. However, even the most optimistic member of the Dawg Pound can’t deny the scale of the challenge the Browns will face this Sunday at home.
The Pats haven’t always looked as impressive as their 3-1 record suggests. They should have lost to a last-gasp field goal despite dominating the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1. Even Week 3’s demolition of the Houston Texans flattered New England.
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Yet the Patriots are still superbly coached by a staff prizing fluid thinking and adaptability above core strengths. The Pats can gash you with a power-based running game or have Brady air it out. Their underrated defense is tough in the middle and diverse in bringing pressure.
Odds
Line: NE (-10)
Over/Under: 47
It’s Horton and the Browns defense that will need to reach into a bag of tricks. He had the formula right when he helped the Cardinals stun Brady and the Patriots in New England in Week 2 of the 2012 season.
Horton coordinated a unit that sacked Brady four times and snatched an interception to inspire a 20-18 Cards win, per Pro Football Reference. Yet Horton had more to work with in 2012. Specifically, he had cornerback Patrick Peterson to shut down one side of the field, while Calais Campbell wrecked the pocket up front.
Horton has a quality cover man with Joe Haden but he’s missing the inside pass-rusher his preferred 2-4-5 front demands, with Desmond Bryant on the shelf. Bryant’s absence is particularly unfortunate against a Pats offensive line that’s missed its share of blocking assignments through four games. In fact, Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald detailed the guilty parties in New England’s blocking schemes:
Blocking miscues through Week 4: pic.twitter.com/UN3KOrafKy
— Jeff Howe (@jeffphowe) October 3, 2016
The numbers show there are problems at every area, something Cleveland’s edge-rushers may be able to exploit. Unheralded players Cam Thomas and Corey Lemonier have combined for three sacks already. Thomas bossed Pro bowl left tackle Trent Williams against the Washington Redskins in Week 4.
Horton may also get a little more daring with how he sends pressure to compensate for the lack of disruptive forces along the line. He did it last week when he sent inside linebacker Chris Kirksey and cornerback Briean Boddy-Calhoun through the middle, while lineman Gabe Wright bailed out into zone coverage. The well-designed blitz let Boddy-Calhoun sack Redskins passer Kirk Cousins on 3rd-and-18 in the fourth quarter.
Horton will need to knock Brady out of his stride and exploit the rust that’s natural after four games out. Cleveland head coach Hue Jackson must also do his part with a deceptively capable offense. In particular, Jackson needs to settle young quarterback Cody Kessler early against Pats defensive that forces quarterbacks to play out of their comfort zone. Fortunately for Kessler, he has weapons who can help him keep things simple.
Specifically, pass-catching running back Duke Johnson who can be a mismatch in space against New England’s heavy and downhill inside linebackers. Working the short game enough could open the vertical routes for Terrelle Pryor. The quarterback-turned-wide receiver is thriving in his new position, having caught 19 passes for 290 yards this season. Ironically, Belichick and the Patriots passed on the chance to acquire Pryor’s diverse set of skills, according to Mark Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com.
#Patriots Bill Belichick wouldn't elaborate on why he didn't sign Terrelle Pryor last year when he spent 3 or 4 days in New England
— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) October 5, 2016
Despite any motivation to prove the Pats wrong, it won’t be Pryor who decides this game for the Browns. Instead, the success of a dynamic running game led by Isaiah Crowell will be key.
He’s averaging 6.5 yards per rush after amassing 120 yards against Washington, his second 100-yard rushing effort out of three. But Crowell might struggle to replicate the form against a Patriots front seven loaded with size.
Tackle tandem Malcom Brown and the hugely underrated Alan Branch clog running lanes and draw double teams. They create chasms for decisive, seek-and-destroy linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower to attack.
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Jackson has to establish the ground game even if it means overloading the line of scrimmage with extra linemen. If the Browns can’t run, Kessler will be at the mercy of Belichick’s devilish blends of disguised coverage and delayed pressures.
Then there’ll be no hope at all of keeping pace with Brady.
Pick: Patriots 27, Browns 20