Titans at Dolphins: Game Preview, odds, and prediction
By Matt Kerns
As a new quarter of the season begins on Sunday, both the Tennessee Titans (1-3) and the Miami Dolphins (1-3) hope to begin a new chapter on the winning side.
Neither the Titans nor the Dolphins have had much stability at quarterback throughout the first four games of the season. And you can bet that there’s a correlation between poor quarterback play and their 1-3 records. Miami’s Ryan Tannehill is the No. 31 quarterback per Football Outsiders while Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota is No. 33 among 33 qualifiers.
It’s clear this won’t be a game filled with downfield pass plays. According to NFL Savant, 79.45 percent of the Titans passing game is made up of short throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Tannehill’s short throws have accounted for 80.29 percent of their offense.
Against the Texans last week, Mariota had very few positive plays. According to Pro Football Focus, Mariota threw 21 passes with a clean pocket and completed 10 for 137 yards. 41 percent of his 202 passing yards came on two plays in the first half.
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Mariota must be able to get in tune with tight end Delanie Walker against Miami. He had eight targets Sunday but caught just two of them. On one of his targets, Mariota threw an ugly interception with Walker’s head turned away. It appeared to be a miscommunication between the two.
Odds
Line: Miami -3.5
Over/Under: 44.5
Over/Under seem high to anyone? These two teams are ranked 28th (Miami) and 32nd (Tennessee) in scoring this season. Miami is averaging 17.8 points per game compared to Tennessee’s 15.5. The Titans scoring margin per game is -5.5 with the Dolphins at-4.5.
The Titans rely on running back DeMarco Murray who has been a great acquisition, but the problem is they are riding Murray and their rushing attack too much. 36 percent of their total yards are made up of rushing yards, which is fourth in the game for rushing percentage.
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If Miami can stop Murray, the Dolphins should win this game. While Tennessee does have a good, effective rushing attack, the Titans haven’t done a great job building off of that ground success with Mariota failing to take the next step in his development.
Prediction
Miami’s offense is slightly better than the Titans and Tannehill is playing better than Mariota. I give a slight edge to the Dolphins defense because their front seven is better than the Titans. Miami has 10 sacks so they’ve been able to get some fairly decent pass rush on the QB. Mariota has been frantic under pressure, which will be a long day for him if the Titans don’t pick up the Dolphins edge rushers.