Justise Winslow: Seizing his role and increased opportunity
By Cole Zwicker
It’s easy to lose perspective on a player’s skill and impact potential transitioning from college to the pros, based on role utilization and usage. Nerlens Noel personified the former last season, playing out of position at the 4 spot trying to fit next to the non-versatile Okafor. In doing so, Noel was pulled away from the basket on both sides of the ball, guarding perimeter players on defense, of which he’s fully capable of, but it diminished his rim protection impact, and operating foul-line extended on offense, enhancing his negative shooting and limiting his space to dive to the basket for finishes with Okafor clogging the paint. Noel’s optimal role and usage is as a finisher and selective passing spread pick-and-roll 5 dive man, a la Cauley-Stein. Yet, he will likely never see that role utilization in Philadelphia due to personnel, overshadowing his underrated skill level and true impact. While Noel personifies the former, Justise Winslow’s rookie season might render him the poster boy for both.
Winslow was predominately utilized at Duke manning the 4 spot in a space happy 4-out system surrounding Okafor’s interior scoring exploits. He was the go-to crunch time scorer, and often the primary initiator for the offense, allowing him to display his overall playmaking versatility as a handler, passer, and creator. In his rookie season, his on-ball usage and role utilization was the diametric opposite.
Winslow finished 132nd out of 139 qualified wings per ESPN.com in usage rate at 11.9 percent last season. Only Kirk Hinrich, Andre Roberson, Alonzo Gee, Thabo Sefolosha, Kyle Singler, Anthony Brown and Tayshaun Prince used less possessions. For context , Stanley Johnson, Winslow’s mortal NBA twitter enemy, sported a 19.1 usage rate, good for 19th among ESPN qualified small forwards.
Winslow simply did not have the role opportunity to really showcase his game next to three top 81 usage takers in Wade, Dragic, and Bosh. Only 9.5 percent of Winslow’s finishing possessions on offense came in primary creation settings via isolation or pick-and-roll ball-handler, per Synergy Sports. Winslow morphed his game to fill the role needed in Miami, and impressively was still able to have a plus impact on a playoff team as a rookie, which few wings in that setting do. But in that role reversal, part of what made Winslow such a special talent coming out of Duke was lost in translation and replaced with a generic “D and no 3” label.
Fast forward to July where Wade went full Little Bear “You refused the call” on Pat Riley, taking his 8th overall 2015-16 regular season 30.5 usage rate to Chicago, coupled with Deng’s departure and Bosh’s uncertain medical status remaining in flux (I am very sad), and suddenly there is a sizable on-ball void there for the taking in South Beach. Dragic will still play the primary initiator role, while Whiteside continues to offer no. 2 status as an interior finisher. Outside of those two however, stud sophomore Josh Richardson, matched RFA Tyler Johnson and Winslow will vie for legitimate touches in the offense on the wing. The stars are aligning for Winslow to showcase his multi-faceted talent in an enhanced offensive role, and the following will display Winslow’s under the radar skills, and illuminate what the overall product could look like.
Versatility
If you just started watching Winslow last year at a birds eye view, you might not think he’s capable of something like this:
This was one of the most impressive offensive plays of his season which showcased Winslow’s ability to initiate the offense in pick-and-roll, euro-step to create space, and finish with his right hand. Elite stuff, yet entirely under the radar. This instead probably looks more like Justise’s 15-16 offensive game, a garbage man hustle put back:
The best part about Justise’s game is that he’s a Swiss army knife, chameleon capable of filling whatever role is required of him and doesn’t need the ball to positively impact a game . He adapts to survive, and most of that can be attributed to his high level basketball intelligence. I like to call him Old Man Justise, not in a Perry Ellis context, but because his game is so subtly advanced for his age. We’re talking about a very cerebral player armed with razor-sharp instincts:
This is one of my favorite plays of Winslow’s last year, which is admittedly weird, but how many players instinctively do this? He gets the rebound and immediately locates and shovels the ball to his primary scorer while attempting to shield Bogut from the shot contest. That’s a bang-bang play and for a 19-year-old to have that recognition is special.
Here is another low key advanced play by Justise, who delivers the entry pass on point to Amar’e:
Stoudemire’s defender is sealed on his outside hip, already affording him a half-step advantage with an on point pass, and presents a right hand target towards the baseline. Winslow throws a high velocity air dart perfectly on target, allowing Amar’e to catch and finish with his left hand, leaving Mahinmi no chance to block it. If that pass isn’t on point, Amar’e likely sacrifices his advantage. You’d be surprised how many players in the league can’t make that entry pass, let alone how many rookies can’t.
Winslow’s high level understanding is also seen as a cutter, where as soon as his man turns his head Winslow runs right to the open spot in the defense for the finish:
And again:
He can pass too…
Winslow is a deft passer who understands timing and space manipulation to open voids in defenses:
He also has great vision and anticipation for how a play will develop:
He is an unselfish player who handles with his head up in transition, allowing him to make advance passes like this:
His unselfishness and personnel recognition also shines making the extra pass without holding the ball, like with this immediate swing pass to Bosh in the corner:
Winslow is capable of attacking closeouts and passing on the move, a skill that usually takes young wings years to master. This high velocity skip to the corner on the move was in his first regular season game:
That looks very LeBron-esque. Winslow played a lot of 4 at Duke, benefiting from the enhanced spacing to shoot over closeouts and utilizing Okafor’s gravitational pull as an interior scorer.
Success as a small-ball 4/5…
He had similar success manning the 4 spot (and even the 5 at times) his rookie year, where his advanced frame allowed him to body up bigger players, unleashing his skill and agility advantage over less mobile bigs:
Turner is one of the best recovery shot blockers in the league already, and is no slouch defending in space. He is helpless here with Winslow’s burst and separation finishing with his right. We see it again on a switch in the following clip, albeit Winslow is actually playing the three against a five in this instance:
Due to personnel constraints Winslow started at the 5 against the Raptors in the playoffs, and was able to hold his own against bigger players with his frame, affording him insane positional versatility:
The Raptors gave him the Tony Allen treatment of putting Biyombo on him and just having Biz clog up the paint. Winslow’s versatility and skill level allowed Spo to counter in multiple ways such as using Winslow as the roll man (we saw this also with Roberson for OKC):
Here, Biz leaves Winslow completely to aid an over matched Lowry in doubling Johnson in the post. Winslow smartly seals DeRozan, the help side defender on the play, to create an easy pass and finish situation:
Winslow’s ability to man the 4 spot and playmake gives him added value in a league where versatility reigns.
Defensive Juggernaut in the making…
Roughly half way into the piece necessitates a purview into the defense. Winslow’s advanced rookie year defense for a wing was that of legend, to the point video godsend Dawkins started making defensive inclusions just for him. The LeBron lite chasedown block became a thing with plays like this:
His individual on ball defense on Harden at the beginning of the season was an eye-opener to his lockdown potential:
He gets around the screen here and recovers to wall off Harden before keeping him in front a second time. His ability to sit down in an athletic stance and slide quickly, while remaining balanced, bodes well for his technique long term. He clearly has the strength to absorb contact containing dribble penetration without getting dislodged, which is rare. It’s just hard to get around or through Winslow.
Winslow’s off-ball defense via timing and anticipation are already elite, as seen here by his rotation off Rush on the weak side for the shot block (No idea why Rush is positioned so far inside):
Denying the ball on the play side and having the reactionary athleticism to defend back cuts is a difficult awareness and athleticism package to find, and Winslow is already adept at it:
He is virtually unscreenable with his frame navigating around a myriad of picks, and excels in opportunistic dig downs like this:
He rarely missed rotations last year, and his ability to get low with plus footwork allows him to change direction like in the following clip where he tags the roll man as the weak side defender and is able to recover to challenge Ariza’s shot:
His instincts in the passing lanes accruing steals is also strong:
Will his shooting improve?
As much as Winslow’s defense was praised last year, his shooting was under constant fire, and given how easy it is to monitor shooting and the actual 27.5 percent clip, it’s understandable why. Winslow’s footwork pre-shot was inconsistent, keeping him from establishing rhythm off the catch:
He makes the shot here (because it’s a highlight and misses are much harder to find), but his feet are all over the place. Winslow shoots basically every spot up shot with a ball dip, impacting his release time, but his upper body form is actually reasonably fluid, albeit still a little stiff. With more polished footwork in his shot preparation, he’ll be able to establish more consistent rhythm tendencies. We already saw improvements there as the season went on:
Winslow catches on the hop here and his overall motion is much more fluid.
And again:
The ball dip is still a concern, and he has a tendency to kick his feet out too much, but the aesthetics aren’t as troubling as the rookie shooting numbers suggest.
Winslow didn’t shoot a ton off the dribble last year, but aesthetically some of his attempts were promising:
I seldom grant shooting exceptions, but Winslow falls under that rarefied MKG/Aaron Gordon extremely young + blue collar work ethic exception to the point I think his shooting will get to league average at least.
Overall, Winslow’s most widely showcased skills last year in a limited role were his ability to defend multiple positions, ability to serve as an intelligent off ball offensive player and his (lack of) shooting. There is much more in the toolbox however, which is frightening with his ability to already do all the little things.
Winslow actually has legitimate on-ball-skills with the handle and passing to be able to play in pick-and-roll.
Attacking the basket
He might not have primary handler level burst, but he has enough burst to turn the corner and beat big men defending in space to the basket:
Here, he rejects the screen and has enough burst to get a half step on Hill to draw the foul:
He can reach an impressive speed with the ball, especially with a head of steam like in this DHO situation:
This first step + burst combination with the emphatic finish occurred attacking a closeout in his first game:
Winslow is fully capable of making the requisite reads in pick-and-roll, showing a nice hesitation dribble here to diagnose the defense:
Teams will undoubtedly go under the screen on Winslow PNRs, and he’ll probably have to make shots like this at times when his defender goes under and the big drops back:
Winslow can easily handle the ball in large spaces, and has fluid body control finishing on the move:
He has grab and go ability to handle and make simple reads on the move:
His transition euro-step in college garnered him some Harden comparisons, and while those flashes were few and far between last year, they were there, along with his better than you’d think side to side wiggle:
The following is one of the most impressive on-ball plays of Justise’s rookie year. He plays with pace in pick-and-roll, keeping Thornton in jail on his back before firing a skip pass cross court to Johnson for the three:
These on-ball creation flashes last year paint the accurate two-way playmaking picture a lot of us saw and gravitated towards in the draft process coming out of Duke, which vastly exceeds his 1-year archetypical defensive specialist role in Miami. Opportunity to develop is the most overlooked part of the lens that we view young prospects in. Justise is about to be a benefactor of opportunity after a year of doing the dirty work, and I’m betting on his combination of smarts and skill to seize it.