The 2016 college football season is in Week 7. Here are the latest bowl projections through Week 6. Which four teams make the College Football Playoff?
CBSSports.com’s Jerry Palm released his 2016 college football bowl projections after the Week 6 games. Which four teams are going make the third annual College Football Playoff? What teams are going bowling? Here is how Palm sees it playing out at the midway point of the 2016 NCAA season:
New Year’s Six
College Football Playoff
Peach Bowl: No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 4 Washington Huskies
Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 3 Clemson Tigers
There are no surprises here. The projected conference champions from the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC get in, with the Big 12 missing out on the College Football Playoff for the second time in two years. The only debate at this point with the top four might be Michigan over Ohio State, but that’s really it. Alabama and Ohio State could swap No. 1 and No. 2, but that’s nitpicking.
Selection Committee Bowls
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Rose Bowl: Michigan Wolverines vs. Stanford Cardinal
Cotton Bowl: Houston Cougars vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Orange Bowl: Louisville Cardinals vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Both the Big Ten and the SEC get two additional teams into the New Year’s Six. No doubt Michigan and Texas A&M get to play in meaningful bowl games. We’ll see about Tennessee and Wisconsin.
Oklahoma is projected to win the Big 12. Those two non-conference losses say a ton about the state of that Power 5 conference. Louisville getting to the Orange Bowl is the logical choice. Houston must edge out Boise State for the Group of 5 bid to the Cotton Bowl. Stanford getting a trip to the Rose Bowl with two losses already on the season is absurd.
Bowl Teams per Power 5 conference
ACC (11): Clemson, Louisville, Florida State Seminoles, Virginia Tech Hokies, North Carolina Tar Heels, Wake Forest Demon Deacons, Miami Hurricanes, Pittsburgh Panthers, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, North Carolina State Wolfpack, Boston College Eagles
Big Ten (11): Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Michigan State Spartans, Northwestern Wildcats, Indiana Hoosiers, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Penn State Nittany Lions, Iowa Hawkeyes, Maryland Terrapins
Big 12 (7): Oklahoma, Texas Tech Red Raiders, Baylor Bears, Oklahoma State Cowboys, TCU Horned Frogs, Kansas State Wildcats, West Virginia Mountaineers
Pac-12 (7): Washington, Stanford, Arizona State Sun Devils, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans, Utah Utes, Washington State Cougars
SEC (10): Alabama, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Georgia Bulldogs, Arkansas Razorbacks, Ole Miss Rebels, Florida Gators, Auburn Tigers, LSU Tigers, Missouri Tigers
Overall, the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC clean up in getting its member institutions to bowls. All three Power 5 conferences have at least 10 teams reaching a holiday season bowl. The Big 12 does okay with getting 70% of its teams to bowls. There are a lot of okay teams in that Power 5 conference.
The shocking part of this bowl game projection is that the Pac-12 only gets seven teams in. People are saying that the Big 12 is weak, but there are only five teams in the Pac-12 that feel like locks to make a bowl: Washington, Stanford, Arizona State, Utah, and UCLA. USC probably will, but Washington State is on the bubble.
The three strangest Power 5 schools to get a projected bowl bid are Wake Forest, Northwestern, and Missouri. Wake Forest is odd because the Demon Deacons have been bad for so long. They’re 5-1 and there’s no way they’re not going bowling.
Northwestern is 2-3 on the year. Perhaps they are projected to do work in the Big Ten West? Otherwise, it’s hard to see the Wildcats in a holiday season bowl. Missouri has shown it can beat up on Group of 5 and FCS teams. However, the Tigers are 0-3 against Power 5 teams this fall. Are we sure Missouri can got 3-5 in SEC play and make a bowl?
Three Power 5 teams that got the shaft on these bowl projections were the California Golden Bears, the Colorado Buffaloes, and maybe the Kentucky Wildcats.
Cal is 3-3. The Golden Bears’ loss to the Oregon State Beavers really stings, but Cal could definitely finish at 6-6 and make a bowl game.
The Buffaloes need two more wins in the next six games to reach 6-6. You have to believe that Mike McIntyre’s football team is good enough to get to .500.
Kentucky is interesting. The Wildcats will have to go 4-4 in SEC play to get to .500. A Week 1 loss to the Southern Miss Golden Eagles looks worse by the week. Kentucky isn’t beating Louisville at the end of the year. However if Kentucky beats the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Missouri in the next two weeks, the Wildcats are going bowling.
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It’s mid-October, but it’s really strange to see a bowl projection that doesn’t feature national powers like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, the Oregon Ducks, or the Texas Longhorns. All three are sub-.500. Most of the teams that should be good are good, but what is going on in South Bend, Eugene, and Austin?