NBA Season Preview: The crackpots and these rookies

NBA Rookies are an infusion of hope.

They arrive at the NBA Draft thoroughly scouted and broken down, tracked and projected. Once the rookies are paired off with eager new franchises, they move on to Summer League. Then training camps and preseason games. By the time the opening tip of a new season goes up, there is a hefty file of documentation on the relative talent of each of these brand new players.

But that doesn’t make them any less mysterious.

Most NBA rookies are not good, even those headed on a short track to stardom. Still, initial assessments often tend to be rosy. Basketball is more fun when every player and every team is maxing out their talent, and so the natural inclination is for assumptions to drift in that direction. Even when we feel the tug of reality, no one wants to envision a promising young player chained to the bench for an entire season for lack of defensive experience, or to create room for some middling veteran. We can’t help but hope for the best for them.

Even with what we think we know about these players, and the slightly dreamy hypotheticals we entertain for them, the dynamic of a rookie season is almost always one of surprise.

Last season’s rookie class featured three rookie big men — Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis, and Nikola Jokic — all of whom threaten to remake out understanding of what’s possible from the center position. No matter how high your individual preseason assessments were of that trio, seeing them as rookies actually follow through on their promises, breathing life into their potential was a shock. All three looked to be good to varying degrees, but this good, this fast?

How about D’Angelo Russell suffering through the absurdist coaching style of Byron Scott? Or Devin Booker making himself perhaps the most indispensable member of the Phoenix Suns? Or Emmanuel Mudiay finishing with one of the least efficient shooting seasons in NBA history?

The point being, we have hopes and expectations for the rookie class each season but there are no bullseyes, only slightly smaller surprises.

As a group, this year’s rookie class seems to represent an unusually large amount of uncertainty. Even the top pick taken in last year’s draft — Ben Simmons of the Philadelphia 76ers — seems like a high variance prospect. Simmons, who is likely out for at least three months with a foot fracture, was generally regarded as the most talented player in the draft but it still requires some imagination to see exactly how and where he fits as an NBA player.

With the body and athleticism of a power forward, Simmons lacks a consistent jump shot or the kind of polished post game that would allow him to score inside. His most tangible basketball skills are passing and vision not the the usual hallmarks of elite big men. Simmons is almost certainly useful and could be exceptionally so, but it will probably be in non-traditional ways that are had to actually map out right now.

Brandon Ingram of the Los Angeles Lakers is a willowy scorer. On the most optimistic side, he could be a player in the mold of Kevin Durant. But drawing comparisons to one of the league’s most unique talents is often a recipe for disappointment and there are plenty of Austin Daye’s and Rodney White’s to serve as a reminder of that.

Kris Dunn, of the Minnesota Timberwolves may not have the upside of Simmons or Ingram, but he’s seen as a more pro-ready prospect. However, it’s possible that he is nothing more than a defensive specialist this season. with the offense continuing to run through the hands of Ricky Rubio. In this class, even the sure things come with caveats.

Marquese Chriss, Dragan Bender, and and Jaylen Brown are all defined by raw potential. Each will play significant minutes this season and will settle into a position by default and out of necessity. But in terms of what they actually will be as players, nothing seems settled. Each could probably play three positions and gravitating towards the natural mid-points of that scale — power forward for Chriss and Bender, small forward for Brown — is not a foregone conclusion.

We see what all of these players could be. Knowledge of what they are is still a few weeks away.

Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Each of these players are important to their individual teams for the potential they hold. But they also matter as a group. The rookie class is an annual deposit of new talent into the league. By virtue of all arriving at the same moment their questions and eventual answers become intertwined. In separate seasons Towns, Jokic, and Porzingis are just very good rookies. Together they are revolution.

Some of this year’s rookies will quickly fade but others will take their first minutes on the court and start building a legacy. For most of these players, the penultimate moments of the career won’t come for years but it will begin to take shape right now. Individually, and collectively, this year’s rookies are less defined than any recent group I can remember. From Joel Embiid, down to Dejounte Murray, it feels like the possibilities are endless.

In just a few weeks, mysteries and questions will slowly become details. We will see who is going to matter and who isn’t, which players will be fodder for decades-long rivalries, who changes the fortunes of their teams and who may be tipping their toes in the water of the next positional or stylistic revolution.

Right now we have hope and theories. I can’t wait to get some answers.