Dallas Mavericks season preview

The NBA season will be here before you know it and FanSided is here to get you ready. In the lead up to Opening Night, we’ll be previewing two teams each day, reviewing roster changes, discussing important players and challenges, and hearing the perspective of our FanSided site experts. Let’s get ready for basketball!

Roster changes

Inputs: A.J. Hammons (C, NBA Draft pick No. 46); Harrison Barnes (SF, signed for four years, $94 million); Andrew Bogut (C, traded from the Golden State Warriors); Dorian Finney-Smith (SF, signed for three years, partially guaranteed minimum); Nicolas Brussino (SF, signed for three years, partially guaranteed minimum); Seth Curry (SG, signed for two years, $6 million); Quincy Acy (PF, signed for two years, veteran’s minimum); Jonathan Gibson (SG, signed for three years, partially guaranteed minimum)

Outputs: Chandler Parsons (SF, signed with the Memphis Grizzlies); JaVale McGee (C, signed with Golden State Warriors); Raymond Felton (PG, signed with the Los Angeles Clippers); Jeremy Evans (PF, traded to the Indiana Pacers); Zaza Pachulia (C, signed with the Golden State Warriors); Charlie Villanueva (PF, unsigned); David Lee (PF, signed with San Antonio Spurs)

Retained: Dirk Nowitzki (PF, signed for two years, $40 million); Deron Williams (PG, signed for one year, $10 million); Dwight Powell (PF, signed for four years, $37 million)

Biggest question mark

The Mavericks are a team with title aspirations every season, even if the talent on their roster begs to differ. Owner Mark Cuban is not one to rebuild from scratch but management has been unsuccessful over the past few seasons in signing top-tier free agents to pair with an aging Dirk Nowitzki, all in a quest for one more championship before the Dunking Deutschman hangs them up for good. Whether it was Hassan Whiteside or Mike Conley this past offseason, Dallas struck out once again.

In direct correlation with the Warriors’ signing of Kevin Durant, the Mavericks picked up the pieces from the fallout — ending up with center Andrew Bogut via trade in a cap clearing move for the Dubs. The big acquisition, however, was that of small forward Harrison Barnes, who signed a max contract worth $94 million over four years to join the Mavericks. It was the same exact deal that Dallas’ departing small forward, Chandler Parsons, had signed with the Grizzlies just three days prior.

The question now becomes not just how good Barnes is compared to Parsons, but how good Barnes is in general. He is one of the trickiest players to project in his new role, presumably that of a number two scoring option for the Mavs, since he was the consummate role player during his four seasons in Golden State. Barnes didn’t have to do anything but shoot open threes for the Warriors, something he did fairly well as a career 37.6 percent shooter from deep. The open looks won’t be quite so open on the Mavericks as Barnes will finally be asked to create his own shots and, in the broadest of terms, show what he is capable of as a former, highly sought-after seventh overall pick.

There is a lot of skepticism surrounding Barnes, whether it be his ceiling as an NBA player, his playmaking ability, or his overall demeanor on offense. His defense has either been praised due to his athleticism and wingspan or picked apart based on the Warriors’ superior defensive metrics with Barnes off the court. While preseason stats should not be relied upon, they haven’t been pretty for Barnes so far.

So is Barnes a guaranteed bust? It’s unfair to make that determination now, even though the available data bears it out. Still, for one reason or another, Golden State never featured Barnes enough and one has to wonder what that did to his development. This season may provide a steep learning curve for the four-year vet, but all hope is not lost and the Mavs will give him every opportunity to find his footing and succeed.

Biggest strength

It’s hard to find a lot to excite the casual NBA fan about the 2015-16 Mavericks. Heck, it’s hard to find anything that will excite the hoops junkies. The team is not very athletic, lacks a dynamic scorer that can take over games (although Dirk still has his moments), and doesn’t have any exciting rookies or even sophomore players (Justin Anderson aside) to write gushing pieces about. They are as vanilla as fringe Western Conference playoffs contenders come.

They should be better defensively this season, after finishing middle-of-the-pack in some categories last year (16th in team defensive efficiency), but stronger in other, specific areas (ninth in points in the paint allowed, 11th in defensive rebounds per game). The Mavericks will continue to get burned in transition, due to their lack of speed across the board, but if they are able to play at the pace that suits them, Dallas can become one of the better halfcourt defenses in the league.

It all starts with Bogut in the post, who is still an elite rim defender and difference maker in the halfcourt. Bogut led the NBA in Defensive Real Plus-Minus last season, an advanced stat that really takes into account the presence of a player on the court, removing factors created by teammates. Bogut is buried in the paint and while he will not help the Mavericks against more up-tempo lineups, he will stifle opposing teams when the Mavericks are playing efficient offense, keeping the pace low and fast break opportunities at a minimum.

Nowitzki is not a good defender, but the Mavericks will continue doing their best to hide him when he is on the court and will be aided by teams that don’t have an offensive threat at power forward. When Dirk is off the court, the Mavericks will likely go as defensive-minded as possible and have added a stellar all-around defender in Quincy Acy. The hope is that athletic, newly resigned Dwight Powell can continue to improve as an all-around defender too, even though his offensive game is lacking.

The key to the Mavericks’ half court defense will be on the perimeter. With Barnes and shooting guard Wesley Matthews, the Mavericks potentially have two lockdown wing defenders. Matthews is still trying to return to his pre-Achilles tear form, but is welcoming the addition of Barnes and what it will mean to the team’s defensive versatility.

When you add Deron Williams, not a horrible defender at this stage in his career, the Mavericks should continue to shift their focus on Grizzlies-style, grit-and-grind basketball, and away from being an offensive-minded squad. It may not be pretty, but it will give them their best chance of staying relevant in the West.

What does success look like?

— Isaac Harris, @TheSmokingCuban, The Smoking Cuban

Success for the Dallas Mavericks this coming season will be reaching the playoffs once again in these last few years of Dirk Nowitzki’s career. Nobody is realistically expecting the Mavericks to reach the Finals this year, but putting together a competitive, playoff caliber team around Nowitzki has been the goal the past couple of years. The Mavs have had ample opportunities the past two summers to tank and finally rebuild, but they knew that would risk Nowitzki going elsewhere to finish his career.

Thanks to Kevin Durant, the Mavs brought in Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut; two moves that proved worthy enough for Nowitzki to stick around. The feeling around practice and training camp is that the Mavs are as confident as ever in reaching the playoffs with this newly built (once again) roster. Continuing the growth of Harrison Barnes will be key but the Mavericks may need more than that. While making the playoffs will be the measuring stick, developing the younger pieces in Dallas will be a focal point. Barnes, Justin Anderson, Dwight Powell, Seth Curry, and Quincy Acy are all under 27-years old and look to have a spot in the rotation. Finding the next batch of Mavs for the post Dirk era will be emphasized, but making the playoffs will be the final measure of success.

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