Dallas Mavericks: On a horse with no name

The Step Back has been born from the aesthetics and traditions of the Hardwood Paroxysm Basketball Network. In the past, Hardwood Paroxysm has produced a massive stand-alone season preview. This year, that preview effort has been rolled up into the launch of The Step Back. 

The Step Back’s writers and illustrators have prepared a hefty deep-dive into each team, built from multiple smaller sections. This year’s theme is television comedies and each section is named after some of our favorite sitcoms. For links to all 30 teams, as well as details about the focus of each section, check out our guide on how to read this preview.

Community

By Chris Manning (@cwmwrites)

For the Dallas Mavericks, the past few seasons have been all about trying to make the most of Dirk Nowitzki’s final stand, while also building for life after him. In the very near future, Dirk will retire and the Mavericks will enter a new era where they need a new star. They came close once — remember when they almost signed DeAndre Jordan? — and Chandler Parsons seemed like the guy to take on the mantle both on and off the court, until he ended up in Memphis.

The burden of both supporting and eventually replacing Dirk now falls on Wesley Matthews and Harrison Barnes’ shoulders, for better or worse. Matthews was decent last season coming off an Achilles injury, but he is not capable of becoming a Dirk replacement based on what we saw in his time with the Portland Trail Blazers. Barnes, on the other hand, could still take a big leap and he’ll have a bigger role this year than he ever did with Golden State. But considering he’s basically been an average NBA player so far in his career with four seasons of sample size to evaluate, it’s hard to see Barnes becoming anything significantly better than he is now.

Leaps can happen, of course, but the trajectory of Barnes’ career doesn’t bode well for him becoming a top-level superstar with the Mavs.

Where this leaves Dallas is interesting. Matthews and Barnes could be be good role players next to a star — especially if they can both have solid years in 2016-17 — and Dirk is still really, really good even if he’s no longer the best version of himself. With those three and maybe Justin Anderson if he continues to develop into a good NBA player, this team can probably make the playoffs, even if they ultimately get wrecked by the Warriors, Spurs, or Clippers in the first round. Maybe if Seth Curry lives up to what he can be, they could even get a little higher in the West.

Ultimately, though, what does that mean? Is it enough to just have Dirk make the playoffs again? And do Barnes and Matthews need to be more than what they’ve been in order to give Dallas a better chance to land a star next summer? That’s why this season is about trying to get out of the cycle they are currently in.

Friends

By Ian Levy (@HickoryHigh)

Basketball shouldn’t have been fun for the Dallas Mavericks the past few seasons. Since winning the 2011 NBA Championship, Dallas has made the playoffs four times in five seasons — winning a grand total of five games in those four playoff runs, all of which ended in first round exits. They experimented with Rajon Rondo, they suffered through a mountain of injuries, they were good but never good enough, all while Dirk Nowitzki’s prime ebbed away. Sure, they’re not the Philadelphia 76ers or the Brooklyn Nets, but moderate competitiveness doesn’t necessarily equate to joyous enthusiasm.

Despite all those struggles, and despite the epic stone faces of Rick Carlisle, Wesley Matthews, and Deron Williams, the Dallas Mavericks have fun. For that, like most things, they have Nowitzki to thank.

Nowitzki is the functional and strategic focal point of this team; emotionally he is also the binding element. Of all the things that make him special and unique on a basketball court, the ability to balance requisite intensity with pervasive levity may be the most striking. Nowitzki takes basketball seriously but not himself. As to the results, they clearly matter to him but so too does the process and emotional benefits of getting to a play a beautiful game for obscene sums of money. If there is any truth to the generalization that NBA players are entitled and ungrateful, those malcontents sit on the opposite end of the spectrum from Nowitzki.

The Mavericks are under enormous pressure. The weight of that one-off title hangs heavy, and the faint background noise of sand running through the hourglass of Dirk’s career is always there. But it is Dirk’s attitude, his smile, and his humor that keep this team upright. That keep them friends. That keep moving towards the same goal without being buried underneath it.

Without Nowitzki this is a team of serious men who hate losing, but aren’t good enough to fully protect themselves from it. Dirk is the antidote for that potential sourness, the barrier between too many losses to bear, the armor that keeps the drudgery of thankless work at bay.

The Odd Couple

By Andrew Tobolowsky (@andytobo)

Wesley Matthews and Harrison Barnes are, on one level, a really good fit. That level is defense. They also, when there are other people on the court capable of initiating the offense and getting the ball to them, should prove a deadly three-point combo from the outside.

But that’s kind of the problem. The Dallas Mavericks have a real limited number of players this season who can initiate the offense, and neither Matthews nor Barnes can help much with that. Deron Williams is probably the only impactful player they have in that department, and he’s pretty likely to miss 15 or 20 games. After that there’s J.J. Barea and Devin Harris, who are pretty good bench players but not exactly world-beaters at making the rest of the offense click.

And that is a situation where the Mavericks will, one, really miss ol’ Chandler Parsons, and two, wish they didn’t have two wing players who have averaged 3.5 assists combined for their careers. They have two guys who are at their best spotting up and waiting, and in general that’s a pretty good thing. But they will wish, instead, they had more people who could dribble, drive, and pass.

Or maybe not! They may well get by on throwing it around the arc until they find the open man. Prior to the Rajon Rondo trade a couple of years ago, they had the best offense in history for a while with Jameer Nelson at point. Maybe Rick Carlisle’s schemes are that good and Matthews, Barnes, and a lot of other guys are so talented that it won’t really matter that they are low on ball-handlers.

But it’s been a long time since they’ve been in a situation like this. For the last couple of years they had Parsons at the wing — when he was healthy — to help jumpstart the offense as well as surprisingly sprightly play from Raymond Felton. From 2013-15 they also had Monta Ellis to initiate from the two spot, which he was better at than people want to admit. We can all just forget 2012-13 happened, but Darren Collison and O.J. Mayo could at least bring the ball up and get things started.

This year, if (when) Williams gets injured, they will lack a reliable distributor at the 1, 2, and 3. The starters at 2 and 3 have significant strengths, more so than a lot of other guys they’ve had play either position. But not at one, and it’s now something they’re surprisingly thin at. We’ll see how it goes.

Perfect Strangers

by Matt D’Anna (@hoop_nerd)

Ten Word Analysis: Dirk is everywhere. Cherish him while he’s still playing.

TeamSPACE charts are based on mapped clusters of shot activity. These areas are affectionately called Hunting Grounds, because they are the areas on the court where a player hunts for shots — and successfully scores most often. TeamSPACE takes the Hunting Grounds of all five players in a lineup and puts them on the court together — because, you know, they have to share that physical space, and there is only one ball.

In the past, it was one color per player; which meant that blending colors represented overlapping spaces for shot activity. But this time around, these are not your ordinary TeamSPACE shot maps. Each lineup is analyzed in the aggregate — one color! — and that unit is compared that unit to the rest of the league. So you will see a persistent red layer on every chart, highlighting the league’s Hunting Grounds from last season. The most prolific locations should come as no surprise: the paint, the corners, most of the top of the arc, and a couple of dabs at the foul line and top of the key.

So…how were these lineups chosen for each team? In the past, it’s been about projecting the starting lineup, estimating the most used lineup, or even designing the “most favoritest” lineup. This year? It’s the these charts represent the “most interestingly feasible” lineups….what? That’s a loaded phrase, so let’s unpack it a bit.

The goal is to identify the collection of five players on a team that could potentially play together, and if they did, the offensive results could be glorious. Ideally these lineups aren’t too far-fetched, but also slightly off-kilter and confusing to an opposing defense. While this type of analysis is not conducive for assessing defense, somewhat reasonable decisions are attempted to be made. So while it’s tempting to just put all the best shooters together…how realistic is it (outside of Houston, at least)? And, full disclosure: I favor some stretch in my lineups. It not only provides plenty of high-octane potential, but getting stretchy is also on par with current league-wide trends.

Each TeamSPACE chart has a couple of other sitcom-related features:

Family Matters: You’ll notice a series of Jaleel White’s across half court. Each lineup is scored on a scale of 0-7 Steve Urkels for how well it matches league-wide trends. Remember, there’s seven league Hunting Grounds (right corner three; at the rim; left corner three; foul line/top of the key; right wing; middle 3pt; left wing). A lineup gains points for matching each area; it loses points for messy excess shot activity.

Odd Couple: “Most interestingly feasible” is obviously debatable, so in order to account for some of those decisions, you’ll see Oscar and Felix on each chart. Often, there are players that are in the lineup…and maybe/probably they should not be. They get the Oscar label. And, there are those players that are out of the lineup…and maybe/probably should be included. They are the Felix for their team.

And briefly, a word about data. These strange visual displays are based on last season’s shot data, weighted by made buckets — so rookies and season-long injuries are sadly excluded. This analysis is nothing without the help of Darryl Blackport, and the research materials available atBasketball-Reference and NBA.com. Further, these charts feature some of the best logo re-designs I could curate from the ol’ Information Superhighway, including Dribbble.com and Pinterest. I made none of the logos; I merely selected some of my favorites. Enjoy!

Everybody Loves Raymond

By Matt Cianfrone (@Matt_Cianfrone)

It was not long ago that Dirk Nowitzki was looked at by the casual fan as a serial underachiever with the “soft” label. Then the Dallas Mavericks won the 2011 NBA title. Suddenly things changed, and everyone should be thankful for it.

It started back in that title season. Dirk sat on the sidelines injured in a December game against the Toronto Raptors and the local Fox Sports station had the brilliant idea to bring him onto the broadcast. After a Tyson Chandler dunk, Nowitzki flipped out and screamed “take dat wit’ chu” into the mic — a moment that began the change from great player to great personality.

From there, Dirk starred in a techno song version based on that phrase where he wore a rainbow wig and played drums on fake food. Thanks to the growth of social media, Dirk’s personality was suddenly seen by everyone around the league. We saw him swat a microphone out of a reporter’s hands during an interview with Chandler Parsons and sing karaoke to 90s songs for Jumbotron videos. It seemed every week there was something else with Dirk that was spreading like wildfire.

Suddenly everyone seemed to love Dirk and Dirk seemed to love everyone back. It was impossible to not root for him, especially because he was still dominant on the court. He twisted defenses in ways that we haven’t seen before. He knocked down big shot after big shot for a Mavs team that ultimately didn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things.

However, that grand scheme is probably why it feels like Nowitzki is still underappreciated. With Nowitzki and Rick Carlisle, Dallas will be in the hunt for a playoff spot in 2016, but aren’t anything close to a contender. And really, since Chandler left following the title, Dallas has been in that position. Every year it is clear around January that they won’t matter in that big picture, and so they tend to be ignored which means missing out on some of the things that make Dirk so lovable.

After all, it is hard to get a great Nowitzki quote after a big shot when there aren’t that many big shots for Dirk to make. Sure, Dallas will win a fair amount of games, but how many will truly feel gigantic?

That leaves us with Dirk’s Twitter jokes as the main reason to laugh and pay attention to him. While those are great and all, it feels like a waste of the time we still have with Nowitzki. He should be on a contender, hitting big shots to work his way towards a championship on some nights, while relaxing and joining TV broadcasts on others. He should be someone that a ton of profiles are written about. Filled with information we may already know along with a new story or two we don’t.

But I guess that isn’t always how things go. Which leads to a plea that hopefully everyone follows: As this season goes along, please don’t forget about Dirk.

As we saw this summer with the retirements of Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan, Nowitzki just won’t be around much longer. Players have expiration dates, especially ones that have played so many minutes over the years. We have already seen Nowitzki start to break down over the last few years, and while he talks about being around for a couple more, that could change quickly. After all, if Nowitzki is not playing for anything but numbers, why put his body through the wringer again and again?

We don’t know when the next giant power forward who makes Twitter jokes about his lack of speed will arrive. Or honestly, even if they will. As we get later and later into Dirk’s career one thing is becoming clear: We haven’t ever seen anything like Nowitzki before. Not on the court with the size and three-point range and stepback jumpers. And definitely not off the court, where a player has so seamlessly transitioned into goofy lovability so quickly.

Soon enough the NBA won’t have Dirk Nowitzki anymore, and the league as a whole will be worse off for it. So make sure you aren’t one of the people who will look back in years and wish you cared more about Dirk Nowitzki. Use this season to fully appreciate him. It can only make you enjoy our league more.

Boy Meets World

By Chris Stone (@cstonehoops)

Lately, it seems the Dallas Mavericks have been the bridesmaid and never the bride in NBA free agency. That is, of course, unless you think Harrison Barnes is the knight in shining armor for a franchise that hasn’t made it out of the first round of the playoffs since winning the NBA title in 2011.

The optimist would suggest that Dallas is in search of the diamond in the rough. Barnes, at 24-years old, has plenty of growing left to do, particularly outside of a system in which Steph Curry and Klay Thompson were the primary shotmakers. It’s not unfounded for players to bloom at Barnes’ age, but it’s not all that common either, which is why many have already written Barnes off as little more than an overpaid role player.

That same idea of betting on allegedly undervalued, but talented players has also characterized the Mavericks’ interactions with many of the less experienced guys on their roster. In addition to Barnes and another former Golden State Warrior, Andrew Bogut, Dallas also tendered contracts to three-year pro Seth Curry and two-year pro Dwight Powell this offseason.

Curry joined the Mavericks on a two-year, $6 million deal and will likely slot into the team’s crowded backcourt situation that features veterans Deron Williams, J.J. Barea, Devin Harris, and Wesley Matthews. It’s hard to imagine that Curry will start the season above any of those players on the depth chart. Curry’s seven game stretch to close the 2015-16 season in April is what ultimately encouraged Dallas to take a shot on him. During that run, he averaged 16.4 points and 5.3 assists in 32.5 minutes per game. If he produces like he did at the end of last season with the Kings, it’ll be hard to leave him on the bench for long.

Powell, on the other hand, seems likely to find decent minutes off the jump as the fourth big in the Mavericks’ rotation behind Bogut, Dirk Nowitzki, and Quincy Acy. The 6-11 power forward is full of physical tools — length, athleticism, and quickness — but it’s not clear that he has any attributes that would emphasize the need for him on the court. Last season, Powell averaged 5.8 points and 4.0 rebounds in 14.4 minutes per game. Those are perfectly reasonable numbers, but his advanced statistics (-0.3 BPM and 0.4 VORP) suggest that he’s likely a replacement level player who isn’t worth four years and $37 million unless he’s going to grow into something more.

The problem for the Mavericks, and for both Curry and Powell, is that there might not be much room for development. Both players are older than Barnes, the high-priced wing already written off by so many under the auspices that “he is what he is” at this point in his career.

It’s not all doom and gloom in Dallas, though. Rising sophomore Justin Anderson is primed to become a valuable role player on the wing in his second season. Anderson, a 6-6 small forward out of Virginia, has already made an impact defensively, drawing difficult assignments towards the end of the season while earning praise from his head coach. His nearly 230-pound frame allows him to battle bigger opponents while still keeping up with other wings along the perimeter. Where Anderson needs to show improvement is on the offensive end. Last season, he converted a porous 26.5 percent of his three-point attempts. His college numbers, though, present a hopeful case. Anderson made 35.7 percent of his triples in three seasons at Virginia while converting 75.2 percent from the foul line. If he can iron out his stroke in his second season, Anderson could become that diamond in the rough that the Mavericks are looking for, but that’s just the optimist in me speaking.