Los Angeles Lakers: Light years away

The Step Back has been born from the aesthetics and traditions of the Hardwood Paroxysm Basketball Network. In the past, Hardwood Paroxysm has produced a massive stand-alone season preview. This year, that preview effort has been rolled up into the launch of The Step Back. 

The Step Back’s writers and illustrators have prepared a hefty deep-dive into each team, built from multiple smaller sections. This year’s theme is television comedies and each section is named after some of our favorite sitcoms. For links to all 30 teams, as well as details about the focus of each section, check out our guide on how to read this preview.

Community

By Quinten Rosborough (@qrosborough)

Let’s get this out of the way now: The Los Angeles Lakers won’t be very good this year. For the first time in nearly 30 years, however, they won’t have to be.

The rebuilding of the 2010 world champs has seen its fair share of false starts over the last half-decade — the Steve Nash and Dwight Howard trades of 2014 backfired almost immediately, and the 2014 combination of Kobe Bryant’s contract extension and Byron Scott signing kept the franchise’s young core from any meaningful development. But now, Bryant has retired, Scott has been fired, and the Lakers can finally begin to start things over.

Let’s start with the good. The Lakers signed Luke Walton, the winningest coach in NBA history, this summer, and are hoping that his run as interim head coach of the Golden State Warriors can rub off on this young roster. Is Walton a good head coach? Maybe. But his brief stint with the Warriors was a hell of an audition, and he seems to have exactly the right temperament to handle the Lakers odd mix of personalities and egos.

Walton’s hire is oddly fitting, really, because if you tilt your head the right way, this Lakers team does kind of look like the makings of something Warriors-adjace. Like the Warriors, the Lakers are built around their two-headed monster of a backcourt, where both D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson have the ability to drive, distribute, and hit the open jump shot.

Russell took his game to another level in the preseason, showcasing his tantalizing combination of size and skill while averaging close to 20 points per game on 50/40/80 splits. It’s Russell’s versatility that was the most surprising in preseason — he’s just as comfortable bullying his defender on the block as he is in the pick-and-roll — and with a jumpers he’s comfortable getting off even under suffocating pressure, his ability to get buckets from anywhere will surely help a team that will struggle often offensively.

Clarkson looks to be the team’s secondary option this season, and while he’s coming off the bench for now, he’ll likely return to the starting lineup soon due to current starter Lou Williams’ limitations as a defender and ball facilitator. In an ideal world, the Lakers’ backcourt should resemble something akin to what’s going on in Portland, where Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum take turns dissection opposing defenses, and with time, there’s no reason to think this duo won’t be just as effective.

Julius Randle is the third, and possibly most important, member of this Laker squad’s Golden State Warriors coverband, as his ability to emulate Draymond Green is essential in allowing the team to run modern day sets on both ends of the floor. Randle’s a gifted ball-handler for his size, and if he can learn to consistently find open shooters out of the short roll, the Lakers will be well on their way to discovering their own Lineup of Death.

Not everything’s flowers and rainbows for the Lakers, however. At times, Walton’s going to have to throw out a lineup of Jose Calderon, Lou Williams, Nick Young, Larry Nance, and Tarik Black, which on paper seems to be a layup line waiting to happen. Luol Deng is the only plus-defender on the roster, and he can’t guard everybody, so the Lakers will have to rely on outscoring teams to win many ball games.

This is going to be a long year in Los Angeles for sure, but remember, Laker fans: This is a rebuilding year. Your team doesn’t have to worry about winning quite yet. Plus, 2017 free agency is but eight short months away.

Frasier

By Evans Clinchy (@evansclinchy)

Among most NBA teams and their fanbases, there’s a sense of begrudging acceptance that success is fleeting. There’s an understanding that building a truly great team is hard, that your plans aren’t guaranteed to work, and that even if they do, your empire might crumble in the blink of an eye. Building a dynasty requires careful planning, dutiful accumulation of assets, and a good deal of luck to ensure all the pieces actually fit together and produce a winner. Among most teams, this is understood.

The Los Angeles Lakers are not most teams.

For the Lakers, success has always come easy. Almost comically so. Over the last 56 NBA seasons, the Lakers have had at least one of the dozen or so best players in basketball history on their roster in 51 of them. Often, they’ve had more than one. Most organizations would consider this a stupidly good run of luck; for the Lakers, it’s just what’s expected. The Lakers aren’t like everyone else. They’re glitzy and glamorous. They attract the best talent on the floor and the hottest Hollywood stars in the courtside seats. The 31 Western Conference titles and 16 rings the Lakers have accumulated don’t even feel like an accomplishment; they’re more like a birthright.

All of this coalesces to make the Lakers’ current run all the more shocking. The franchise has won 65 games in its last three seasons combined — fewer than either the Golden State Warriors or San Antonio Spurs won last year alone. The Lakers broke their franchise record for losses in 2014, then re-broke it in 2015, then re-re-broke it in 2016. Lord only knows what they’ve got planned for an encore. You’d think that eventually, L.A. would have to hit rock bottom and bounce back up, but that doesn’t appear imminent. The team this summer just spent $186 million on Jordan Clarkson, Luol Deng, and Timofey Mozgov — not exactly Wilt, West, and Elgin. The fact that they spent all that money in the first couple days of July is telling, too. It means the Lakers knew full well they weren’t getting anyone better. This is the Lakers’ new reality — they’re not a winning team and they’re not a free agent destination, either.

Given the six decades of success the Lakers enjoyed, it has to be weird for them to wallow at the bottom of the NBA for once. The franchise is like a once-only child witnessing the birth of their first sibling, grappling with the realization that they’re not the center of the universe anymore. That’s a hard reality to accept, and harder still when you’ve got not one sibling but 29 who are all bigger than you and can beat the snot out of you.

It’s hard to say how this happened. The obvious answer is that Kobe Bryant, with his bloated contract and inefficient ball-stopping play, dragged the franchise down for years and made it impossible for them to compete. This is certainly part of it, but it’d be lazy to chalk the entire problem up to one guy. There are other factors in play. The decline of the big market is involved — players no longer have to relocate to L.A. or New York to gain marketing clout, as recent superstar ascents in Cleveland and Oklahoma City have proven. Greg Monroe, for example, chose Milwaukee over L.A. in free agency a year ago, which never would have happened pre-2000. Another factor in the Lakers’ decline might just be, plain and simple, that their luck run out. Transcendent talents can only keep falling into your lap for so long.

In any event, this is a thing. The Lakers are no longer basketball royalty; they’re just a team like any other. At least for now, this is true. How the team and its fans grapple with that truth is still an open question.

How I Met Your Mother

By Chris Manning (@cwmwrites)

What Luke Walton was a part of in Golden State is what most teams in the league would run if they could. On offense, will several shooters, some really skilled passers, and that Stephen Curry guy, Golden State was the league’s best. On defense, they could switch everything when they went small, still had rim protection, and could really defend anything an opposing offense threw at them. This is an oversimplification, but the Warriors last year ran the perfect modern offense and defense en route to blowing a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals.

The Los Angeles Lakers, the team Walton is coaching this year, don’t have the personnel to do much of anything the Warriors did. In truth, that’s the beauty of Golden State’s dominance the past few years — no one really has the personnel to replicate it. A look down the Lakers’ roster only cements this further. D’Angelo Russell is no Curry. Jordan Clarkson is no Klay Thompson. Brandon Ingram or Julius Randle are no Draymond Green.

This begs the question: What type of offense and defensive schemes will Walton run? On offense, there is certainly a way to replicate some of the smaller lineups he and Steve Kerr used with the Warriors — pairing Ingram and Luol Deng together with Randle or Larry Nance Jr, at the five is one way to do it — and they can push Russell towards a Curry-esque role where he’s not just scoring a lot, but really driving the offense forward. But because the Lakers grossly overpaid for Timofey Mozgov, they are going to have to go big at least some of the time. A look further at their depth chart means they are going to have to find minutes for Mozgov, Randle, Nance, and Tarik Black while finding time to go small. Remember: Deng was better off as a four last year, is probably best used that way at age 31, and said last year that the four was his best position.

Defensively, Los Angeles’ roster construction begs many of the same questions. With Mozgov at the five, they theoretically have a mobile, high-level rim protector there to help lessen some of Russell, Ingram, and Clarkson’s inevitable struggles. But Mozgov was a shell of his 2014-15 self last year as he battled a knee issue and he’s on the wrong side of 30. It’s not hard to envision Mozgov never getting back to what he was during his first half season in Cleveland. If Walton elected to go small, Nance could be a really intriguing option at the five. He’s long-ish, springy, and can probably step out and hedge just about any pick-and-roll teams run at him.

That catch here is that the Lakers are probably not going to good no matter what types of lineups and schemes Walton decides to use. At this point in their post-Kobe world, there is no pressure for them to be good. There are no playoff expectations, no need to chase wins just because No. 24 is still on the roster. Even if it doesn’t sell particularly well, Los Angeles should embrace being bad, experiment with schemes on both ends, and try to figure out what works not just for now but for later as Russell, Ingram and the other improve. Deng and Mozgov can help, but they shouldn’t be the focus — they should be the accessory.

And really, this is probably the best guess at what Walton will run. We may see elements of schemes and plays that look similar to what the Warriors last year that will lay a foundation for the future. But more importantly, Walton should run whatever is best for all of the young players on the roster.

Perfect Strangers

by Matt D’Anna (@hoop_nerd)

Ten Word Analysis: Post-Kobe, things are slowly trending in the right direction.

TeamSPACE charts are based on mapped clusters of shot activity. These areas are affectionately called Hunting Grounds, because they are the areas on the court where a player hunts for shots — and successfully scores most often. TeamSPACE takes the Hunting Grounds of all five players in a lineup and puts them on the court together — because, you know, they have to share that physical space, and there is only one ball.

In the past, it was one color per player; which meant that blending colors represented overlapping spaces for shot activity. But this time around, these are not your ordinary TeamSPACE shot maps. Each lineup is analyzed in the aggregate — one color! — and that unit is compared that unit to the rest of the league. So you will see a persistent red layer on every chart, highlighting the league’s Hunting Grounds from last season. The most prolific locations should come as no surprise: the paint, the corners, most of the top of the arc, and a couple of dabs at the foul line and top of the key.

So…how were these lineups chosen for each team? In the past, it’s been about projecting the starting lineup, estimating the most used lineup, or even designing the “most favoritest” lineup. This year? It’s the these charts represent the “most interestingly feasible” lineups….what? That’s a loaded phrase, so let’s unpack it a bit.

The goal is to identify the collection of five players on a team that could potentially play together, and if they did, the offensive results could be glorious. Ideally these lineups aren’t too far-fetched, but also slightly off-kilter and confusing to an opposing defense. While this type of analysis is not conducive for assessing defense, somewhat reasonable decisions are attempted to be made. So while it’s tempting to just put all the best shooters together…how realistic is it (outside of Houston, at least)? And, full disclosure: I favor some stretch in my lineups. It not only provides plenty of high-octane potential, but getting stretchy is also on par with current league-wide trends.

Each TeamSPACE chart has a couple of other sitcom-related features:

Family Matters: You’ll notice a series of Jaleel White’s across half court. Each lineup is scored on a scale of 0-7 Steve Urkels for how well it matches league-wide trends. Remember, there’s seven league Hunting Grounds (right corner three; at the rim; left corner three; foul line/top of the key; right wing; middle 3pt; left wing). A lineup gains points for matching each area; it loses points for messy excess shot activity.

Odd Couple: “Most interestingly feasible” is obviously debatable, so in order to account for some of those decisions, you’ll see Oscar and Felix on each chart. Often, there are players that are in the lineup…and maybe/probably they should not be. They get the Oscar label. And, there are those players that are out of the lineup…and maybe/probably should be included. They are the Felix for their team.

And briefly, a word about data. These strange visual displays are based on last season’s shot data, weighted by made buckets — so rookies and season-long injuries are sadly excluded. This analysis is nothing without the help of Darryl Blackport, and the research materials available at Basketball-Reference and NBA.com. Further, these charts feature some of the best logo re-designs I could curate from the ol’ Information Superhighway, including Dribbble.com and Pinterest. I made none of the logos; I merely selected some of my favorites. Enjoy!

Freaks and Geeks

By Todd Whitehead (@CrumpledJumper)

If you’re reading this, you’re probably a Los Angeles Lakers fan….

For that reason, I’m sorry.

I’m not being glib. I just know that this is a real tough time for you. You’ve been cheering on Kobe Bryant for the last 20 years and now, well… I mean… You must have been preparing yourself to live life in a Mamba-less universe, right? After all, he only played six games in 2013-14 and he never really recaptured his peak form during these past two years — 60-point finales aside — so, you must have know it was coming. But, it’s really happening now. He’s gone.

The good news? The Lakers offense may actually be better WITHOUT Kobe.

That’s not even a hot take. It’s just that, the Lakers offense really couldn’t get any worse.

Last year, L.A. finished dead-last in points produced per game (97.3) and they finished 30th in team assists as well (18 per game). But Kobe’s departure, along with the return of former Laker player and new head coach Luke Walton, will shake things up for the Lake Show.

Of course, Walton has been cutting his coaching teeth with Steve Kerr for the past two seasons up in Oakland. Since the Lakers are basically the bizarro Golden State Warriors. The bizzariors? The Warios? Anyways, since the Lakers are the opposite of the Warriors — who were 1st in points (114.9) and assists (29) per game last season — L.A. will be hoping that Walton will bring his golden playbook along with him down to Southern California.

Specifically, one of the Lakers’ major problems last season was shot selection. They finished too many possessions in isolation — more than any other team, according to stats from Synergy on NBA.com. In general, isolation is not an efficient way to score in the NBA and it was the shot type that yielded the fewest amount of points per possession for the Lakers, too (0.77 PPP for all Lakers combined; 0.71 PPP for Iso-legend, Bryant). The Lakers also finished more possessions than any other team with a shot from a ball handler out of a pick-and-roll action. On average across the NBA, this shot type actually produced even fewer points per possession than isolation, but the Lakers guards (e.g., Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams) do a relatively good job of finishing these plays (0.85 PPP).

Still, compare the Lakers’ shot selection to the Warriors’ and it’s easy to see why L.A. found it so much harder to score.

Volume and efficiency by shot type for the Lakers and Warriors in 2015-16; radial dimension represents the percentile among all teams in the NBA from the minimum (center) to the maximum (edge).

Shots that come off of cuts are the most efficient type of play in the league, and the Warriors get more of those juicy attempts than anybody else. Transition shots are great, too, and the Warriors were in the 90th percentile for volume in that category as well. They also get a lot of shots working off of screens while away from the ball. Screens, cuts, and transition generate the type of movement-based shots that are dependent on teamwork; the ones that tend to generate lots of assists. The Lakers will need more of these types of plays to create a more dynamic offense this season.

Of course, the other big problem with the Lakers’ offense is that, even when they do take the right kinds of shots, they tend to make them less efficiently than most other teams do (see above, right). But, leaving aside the efficiency issue for now, what if Walton could just get the Lakers to adopt the Warriors’ distribution of shot types — how much would that improve the Laker offense?

Well, for each shot type, if we multiply the Warriors’ shot volume (possessions per game) by the Lakers’ shot efficiency (points per possession) and sum across the 10 categories, we find a potential 3.8 point per game improvement over last year’s offense — an increase that would vault them to 101.1 ppg and into 22nd place in the league for point production. Factor in the potential for more efficient shooting to be contributed by first-year Lakers, Luol Deng (1.33 PPP in transition, 88th percentile), Timofey Mozgov (1.31 PPP off cuts, 69th percentile), and Jose Calderon (1.05 PPP off screens, 74th percentile) as well as player development for younger Laker incumbents, and you might see even greater improvement on the offensive end.

And if not? If Walton is unable to create Golden State-South this season? Well, at least you’ll always have “Kobe Doin’ Work.”

Everybody Loves Raymond

By Jaylyn Cook (@yasiin_jay42)

Brandon Ingram is the most likable player on the Los Angeles Lakers’ 2016-2017 roster. There’s no question about it. Please bear with me, as making this statement is a fairly tough thing for me to do. That’s because the rookie is a product of Duke University, and Duke ranks just above spiders, scabies, and stepping on a Lego brick while barefoot in the world-wide ranking of the worst things of all time.

However, Duke’s latent terribleness doesn’t really seem to have any sort of hold over Ingram — as it did Christian Laettner and his stupid fluffy hair. Ingram is a laid-back, fun, and eager future superstar who’s not only excited to make his mark in the NBA, but also to have a good time while doing it.

This became obvious on draft night, when the dude showed up in a blazer MADE OF SNAKE SKIN. YO. The NBA draft has already become infamous for being a de facto fashion show for the draftees and their diverse senses of style, but never has anyone shown up IN A BLAZER MADE. OF. SNAKE. SKIN. Skin that previously belonged to a SNAKE completely shrouded Ingram’s lanky body.

That was bold choice. In fact, that was a really bold choice. It was a choice that let the NBA and its entire fan base know that Ingram had arrived, he was ready to go, and that he wasn’t concerned with yours or anyone else’s thoughts or opinions. That’s a quality that will come in handy when playing in a city like L.A., where gossip and unsolicited opinions spread faster than an Earl Sweatshirt mixtape.

Also, Ingram has PIPES. Earlier this summer, he and a couple other Laker rookies performed karaoke for a smattering of fans during training camp. Ingram — wearing a dog costume (???) and bustin’ out moves that would make Drake jealous — belted a beautiful rendition of Rihanna’s “Diamonds.” It was, in every definition of the word, art.

That’s really all there is to this discussion. But, if you really need any more proof of Ingram’s affable supremacy over the rest of the Lakers’ roster, keep in mind that the other front-runners are as follows:

• D’Angelo Russell, a talented player who basically ruined Nick Young’s engagement with a single snap on Snapchat.
• Jordan Clarkson, whose Twitter password is currently either “cat” or “123456.”
• Nick Young, a serial philanderer and Iggy Azalea enabler.
• Luol Deng, a beloved veteran who has about as much personality as a cardboard box.
• And Timofey Mozgov, who STILL can’t hear the name “Blake Griffin” without…

Keep an eye on the Lakers this season. As they continue to find their footing and make strides in this new direction that they’re heading in, they’ll be a fun group to watch. But make sure to keep BOTH eyes on Ingram, because he’s got a long, fruitful, and fun career ahead of him.

Boy Meets World

By Cole Zwicker (@colezwicker)

Finally out of Byron Scott’s soul-sucking man-up dungeon and the Kobe Bryant sacrificial tour, the Los Angeles Lakers under more laid back Luke Walton and his motion-centric scheme actually have an entertaining feel again. Projecting to be less conservative and more free-flowing, both in leadership and play style, the Lakers will be fun again, albeit still not good.

The playmaking reigns have passed to second year lead guard D’Angelo Russell, and the exciting sophomore will look to capitalize on this new freedom. A 6-5 offensive pick-and-roll dynamo and scheme-changer with the ability to hit threes off the dribble at the point of attack dictating opposing schemes, Russell has the look of an elite offensive perimeter player. His feel for the game and ability to make all the reads and passes on the court is perhaps his greatest attribute, and is paramount to any primary-handler in the game today.

With more pace to get Russell on the move and compensate for his lack of stop/start burst, “Ice in his Veins” is set to explode in a more ball movement and transition based offense. Russell has already shown rare adeptness for posting-up smaller lead guards with his outlier size, and quietly moves well off the ball, likely a result of sharing the handling duties at Ohio State. He has the tools to defend better than he showed last year, and if he does despite a lack of plus foot speed he has the potential to enter rarefied air.

Forming the dynamic 1-2 franchise cornerstone punch with Russell is No. 2 overall pick Brandon Ingram, who has a wider range of outcomes but a potentially higher ceiling than Russell due to the position he plays. As the premiere wing prospect to enter the league over the last half decade, Ingram has prototype size and outlier length for a scoring wing. Often compared to Kevin Durant, Ingram doesn’t have the same shooting profile or fluidity with the ball, but with strength acquisition it’s easy to see him becoming an elite scorer.

A lot of his success will depend on his shooting, as Ingram is not an elite athlete and doesn’t change directions explosively, and needs the respect of his jumper to gain advantage situations. He’s is a long strider who can eat up space quickly, and if he develops a euro-step a la Giannis Antetokounmpo and perfects that albatross spin move he’s going to be a nightmare defensive assignment. He’ll already be able to shoot over most wings, and with strength acquisition in his lower body to anchor in the mid-post, he’ll be even more lethal. He has already flashed just how much damage his length can cause defensively in swallowing Omri Casspi whole in his first preseason game, and he’ll haunt anyone who thinks his half step advantage won’t be erased by Ingram’s limbs. Even if he comes off the bench, Ingram will see ample development time on the wing and swinging to the 4.

In terms of pedigree, Julius Randle is next in line on young prospect hierarchy scale, but probably has more boxes to check than anyone. An elite rebounder and grab and go transition handler, Randle’s best skill right now is his perimeter ball-handling chaos creating ability and plus first step in face-up situations. However, without a respectable shot, teams will continue to play off of him by several steps and erase that blow-by advantage. Randle can still eat up space with his dribble, but he’s not an explosive athlete and has been a minus finisher around the rim, lacking right hand diversity and giving up too much of his head of steam advantage by gathering before going up. Due to his lack of length and vertical athleticism, it’s hard to see Randle ever protecting the rim, meaning developing his shot and playmaking chops as a passer will likely be his only route to being starting caliber pigeonholed at the four spot. He shoots a hard ball, so extending his range beyond the arc could help.

Rounding out the Lakers’ list of upper tier young prospects are newly paid Jordan Clarkson and ultra-athletic Larry Nance Jr. Clarkson is a prototype offensive secondary handler, armed with NBA caliber burst getting to the basket. He doesn’t have the vision of a primary handler, but can run a secondary pick-and-roll and turn the corner consistently. His off-ball shooting development last season was a breath of fresh air, and bodes well for his long-term fit next to Russell. Whether Clarkson’s defense improves from lackluster to above league average will determine his long-term starter potential in conjunction with the shooting. He has the speed, agility, and tools to thrive on both sides. Nance Jr. is seen as an uber-athletic finisher, but his floor game is evolving rapidly. He’s an improved passer on the move and can read defenses. He’s also shown passable signs as a shooter, and if he can make spot-up 3s consistently, he’s going to have a legitimate claim to the starting 4 spot as he’s already a capable space defender. It’s not outlandish to say Nance Jr. is the best 4 prospect long-term currently on the roster, even though he is admittedly older than Randle.

Two other prospects bear mentioning: Enormous rookie second round pick 5-man Ivica Zubac and second year second round pick swingman Anthony Brown, both of whom could find playing time this year hard to come by. Zubac is an enormous human with an enormous standing reach, as evidenced by his Summer League block party. What surprised so much in a limited sample was his plus touch around the basket and aesthetic range potential on his jumper. His floor outcome looks like a bucket-getter role off the bench, and how well he can defend in space will determine his long-term starting potential. The ball-skill deprived and already elder statesman Brown’s future is tied solely to how well he can shoot the ball. If he shoots 38-40 percent from three he might be able to start next to Russell, as his defensive ability to guard opposing ones fits ideally next to the young lead guard. If he doesn’t shoot well, he could be out of the league quickly.

Overall, the Lakers have a pace and space feel with two young cornerstones to build around and a non-draconian coach. Being fun to watch with a blue chip talent and non-competitive at the same time likely leading to another top-3 pick in a loaded top-4 class isn’t the worst place to be.