Miami Heat: Spending down a legacy
The Step Back has been born from the aesthetics and traditions of the Hardwood Paroxysm Basketball Network. In the past, Hardwood Paroxysm has produced a massive stand-alone season preview. This year, that preview effort has been rolled up into the launch of The Step Back.
The Step Back’s writers and illustrators have prepared a hefty deep-dive into each team, built from multiple smaller sections. This year’s theme is television comedies and each section is named after some of our favorite sitcoms. For links to all 30 teams, as well as details about the focus of each section, check out our guide on how to read this preview.
Community
By David Ramil (@dramil13)
We can all accept that change is a constant in the universe, whether we bear witness to it or not. It can occur in varying degrees, however, and for some teams, like the Miami Heat, there has always been a culture that underlies whatever annual modifications are made to a roster. Miami’s culture — one that espouses a commitment to defense, selflessness and professionalism — can be traced back to 1995, when Pat Riley first joined the team.
But culture is inherently tied a team’s ability to succeed: you can only trust the process for so long until it doesn’t seem likely to ever succeed. And success in the NBA extends beyond the ideological mantras of an aging patriarch, and is more likely to depend on the strength of a roster. Look west to San Antonio, where the Spurs have long been recognized for their winning philosophy. Still, as head coach Gregg Popovich has often declared, it’s a philosophy that would ring hollow (and will be tested this year) without Tim Duncan there to exemplify it daily for 19 seasons.
Similarly, the Heat will undergo a substantial shock this year. Miami has withstood more radical transformations than the Spurs over time but its culture, whether you believe in such things or not, has remained steadfast. Consider that in 21 years since Riley took his talents to South Beach, Miami’s roster has always had either Alonzo Mourning or Dwayne Wade to symbolize the team’s dogma.
Until now.
Mourning and Wade’s careers have spanned the entirety of Riley’s tenure in Miami, a successful one that includes 17 playoff appearances, five trips to the NBA Finals and three championships. It’s no coincidence that Riley’s first personnel decision with the Heat was to acquire Mourning from the Charlotte Hornets. And it was Zo’s declining health during the 2002-03 season that led to a lottery pick in the NBA Draft, one which was used on Wade to help usher in the next era of “Heat Basketball.”
Those two players have absolutely symbolized Miami’s success. Mourning’s defensive prowess carried the team for years even if it fell just short of championship glory. Wade’s brilliance during his rookie season emboldened Shaquille O’Neal to embrace a trade to the Heat in 2004, culminating in the franchise’s first title two years later. And Wade’s sustained greatness, as well as his off-the-court friendships with LeBron James and Chris Bosh, led to the team’s most successful era, one that ended abruptly this summer with Wade departing to Chicago and Bosh’s playing career ending unceremoniously due to ongoing health concerns.
Riley’s status has taken a hit in recent years, arguably playing a role (how big or little is debatable and the subject of much controversy) in cutting Miami’s ties to James, Bosh and Wade. But the fact is that all three are gone and the Heat team that is left is tasked with carrying the dying torch of Riley’s philosophy.
The team should continue adhering to long-established defensive tenets, with the re-signed Hassan Whiteside and second-year player Justise Winslow anchoring the team. Whiteside was paid a huge sum to continue protecting rims, leading the league in blocked shots last season. As for Winslow, it’s difficult to predict exactly how he’ll contribute this season. Last season, he showed amazing ability as a perimeter defender but fell short offensively. He’s expected to carry a more significant role this year, assuming some of the playmaking duties that had been shouldered by Wade for 13 seasons. That’s a considerable burden for Winslow, just 20 years old, to carry but it gets even heavier considering he’s the likely successor to embody Miami’s team philosophy.
This is a team that is difficult to project. Wade’s departure left a considerable and unexpected void, forcing Riley to fill it with stopgap measures on short-term deals. Undersized guard Tyler Johnson has promise but came has battled injury in his short NBA career. Dion Waiters is at a crucial turning point, with unrealized potential battling with an oversized ego to create a tenuous balance. At forward, reclamation projects such as Derrick Williams and James Johnson don’t really move the needle much. Udonis Haslem remains the team’s heart and soul but can’t lead by example as he remains glued to the bench.
Miami could find a way to succeed in an Eastern Conference whose lower rungs are completely up for grabs. If Goran Dragic finds a way to activate a team offense that had been, at times, bogged down by Wade, then a roster of castoffs and misfits playing for their NBA lives might coalesce into a surprisingly functional, potent group. But that’s entirely the best-case scenario.
The opposite end of the spectrum is that the team won’t win much and that young players like Winslow, Whiteside and Josh Richardson may not take a big step in their development. Riley’s always traded draft picks indiscriminately but that policy seems more dangerous than ever as the team has to rebuild. Moreover, while many expect Riley to be able to lure a superstar as he has so often in the past, it’s less likely when you’re most alluring piece, at least historically, is now playing in Chicago.
It’s been alleged that at least one factor in driving Wade away from the only team he’s played for is that Riley never shared the credit for building the “Big 3” in 2010 with the player who likely made it a reality. Riley has always put the franchise and himself, as its most high-profile employee, first. We’ll learn, both this season and beyond, if the true driving force behind Miami’s abstract culture is still intact. Or if Wade, the man who best symbolized it for 13 years and now finds himself in the Windy City, will prove that Riley’s words represent nothing but hot air.
I Love Lucy
By Ian Levy (@HickoryHigh)
Dion Waiters is either a monster, swollen with confidence and hubris, or he’s a clown, a fool cursed by the Basketball Gods with eyes that can only see out and never in, utterly lost on a basketball court. He could also be some sort of absurdist performance artist, detached from human emotion and consumed with exposing the twisted on-court power structures of the NBA. Waiters could be all of those things or he could be none of them. What we’re pretty sure of is that he’s not a useful basketball player.
A few staccato efforts in last year’s playoffs aside, there is precious little evidence that Waiters can be a positive offensive or defensive player. He still has fans who are devoted to his potential, but they worship the hypothetical not the actual. They celebrate his outside shooting, occasionally locked-in defense, and dribble penetration, and, in mind’s eye, see someone with useful skills who could be refined to honest-to-goodness utility.
The idea is that Waiters, now a member of the Miami Heat for at least one year, will finally have the freedom to flower. That separated from the oppressive rule of ball-dominating stars like LeBron James and Russell Westbrook, he will finally be able to stretch out and learn from his mistakes (as if he hasn’t already had enough mistakes and learning opportunities to earn himself an honorary Ph.D).
The idea that Waiters can be fixed is absurd. The idea that he can be anything other than what he is right now is a hopeless thought exercise. He might get softer, more careful, more engaged, he might end up being very useful to a good team. But he will always hold a core of swirling chaos and passivity, and this year in Miami isn’t going to change that.
Waiters accepts the fact that he has to sacrifice a whole season in Miami for whatever it was he did wrong. But he thinks you’re crazy to make him spend any time proving to you who he think he is. You see him as you want to see him…in the simplest terms, in the most convenient definitions.
He knows that he is a brain…and an athlete…and a basket case…a princess…and a clown…
Does that answer your question?
Sincerely yours,
The Dion Waiters Club (not affiliated with Waiters Island, LLC)
Frasier
By Wes Goldberg (@wcgoldberg)
What do you do when when the way you always did things can’t be done anymore?
That’s the question facing the Miami Heat and, more specifically, Pat Riley. It’s a question he’s been running away from for years. Since 2014, really, when LeBron James told him and a team that went to four straight Finals “nah, I’m good.”
The Godfather who always gets what he wants didn’t get what he wanted then, or in 2015 when he accidentally convinced LaMarcus Aldridge to sign with the San Antonio Spurs, or this summer when he didn’t get Kevin Durant.
This can’t be easy for Riley. Simply being Pat Fucking Riley isn’t working anymore. He’s like an eagle with clipped wings. When Riley looks in the mirror, he doesn’t see someone who can lure Blake Griffin to Miami next summer. Rival executives don’t fear him. He saw the Golden State Warriors land Durant. The Boston Celtics land Al Horford. He gave Tyler Johnson $50 million.
As Riley comes undone, so do the threads of what was once the most buttoned up operation in the NBA.
His recent breakup with Dwyane Wade, who somehow doesn’t play for the Heat anymore, was messy. It wasn’t a matter of money or returning home or anything like that. It was a matter of respect and a lack thereof. It had nothing to do with facts or numbers. Wade didn’t feel wanted in a city where he is adored by fans. Think about that, and then how much Riley had to screw up to screw that up.
His impending breakup with Chris Bosh is messier. Bosh found out from the media that Riley said his career in Miami was over. An organization that once handled its business privately and always cleanly steered away from distractions now seems to be deliberately driving into them like pedestrians in Grand Theft Auto.
So what changed for The Man With The Bag Of Ringz?
It can be traced back to 2013, when the team amnestied Mike Miller and cut ties with Joel Anthony — two locker room favorites — and the Heat’s players were publicly upset with the moves. Then there was the “guts” speech after the 2014 season, the one where Riley Trumpedly challenged his players and practically dared LeBron to leave.
LeBron wanted more control, and Riley wasn’t willing to give it to him. Since then, LeBron’s been to the Finals twice more without Riley. Since then, Riley’s lost Wade and Bosh and is poised to be picking in the lottery in two of the last three seasons. The entirety of the Big Three is gone now. You could call it a rebuild if he hadn’t traded two first round picks for Goran Dragic in a hastily thrown together deal at the trade deadline two seasons ago. Riley hasn’t done well with the control he wouldn’t relinquish to LeBron. In hindsight, maybe giving LeBron what he wanted wouldn’t have been so bad.
Riley never wanted ego to get in the way of his team, but by fancying himself the Most Egoless, an ego was born. The culture Riley built when he came to Miami is crumbling beneath him.
Since LeBron left, Riley hasn’t been able to land a star player. As he stands in front of the mirror, it could make him wonder if he was ever responsible — even partly — for constructing those championship teams, or if players just wanted to play with LeBron and Wade.
Now Riley doesn’t have Wade to fall back on, and you realize that Riley hasn’t made a big acquisition by himself since 2003 when he signed Lamar Odom.
If you’re Riley, you need to find a new way to rebuild this group. If you’re the Heat, you wonder if he can.
Perfect Strangers
by Matt D’Anna (@hoop_nerd)
Ten Word Analysis: Against the right opponent, this lineup could maybe flourish.
TeamSPACE charts are based on mapped clusters of shot activity. These areas are affectionately called Hunting Grounds, because they are the areas on the court where a player hunts for shots — and successfully scores most often. TeamSPACE takes the Hunting Grounds of all five players in a lineup and puts them on the court together — because, you know, they have to share that physical space, and there is only one ball.
In the past, it was one color per player; which meant that blending colors represented overlapping spaces for shot activity. But this time around, these are not your ordinary TeamSPACE shot maps. Each lineup is analyzed in the aggregate — one color! — and that unit is compared that unit to the rest of the league. So you will see a persistent red layer on every chart, highlighting the league’s Hunting Grounds from last season. The most prolific locations should come as no surprise: the paint, the corners, most of the top of the arc, and a couple of dabs at the foul line and top of the key.
So…how were these lineups chosen for each team? In the past, it’s been about projecting the starting lineup, estimating the most used lineup, or even designing the “most favoritest” lineup. This year? It’s the these charts represent the “most interestingly feasible” lineups….what? That’s a loaded phrase, so let’s unpack it a bit.
The goal is to identify the collection of five players on a team that could potentially play together, and if they did, the offensive results could be glorious. Ideally these lineups aren’t too far-fetched, but also slightly off-kilter and confusing to an opposing defense. While this type of analysis is not conducive for assessing defense, somewhat reasonable decisions are attempted to be made. So while it’s tempting to just put all the best shooters together…how realistic is it (outside of Houston, at least)? And, full disclosure: I favor some stretch in my lineups. It not only provides plenty of high-octane potential, but getting stretchy is also on par with current league-wide trends.
Each TeamSPACE chart has a couple of other sitcom-related features:
Family Matters: You’ll notice a series of Jaleel White’s across half court. Each lineup is scored on a scale of 0-7 Steve Urkels for how well it matches league-wide trends. Remember, there’s seven league Hunting Grounds (right corner three; at the rim; left corner three; foul line/top of the key; right wing; middle 3pt; left wing). A lineup gains points for matching each area; it loses points for messy excess shot activity.
Odd Couple: “Most interestingly feasible” is obviously debatable, so in order to account for some of those decisions, you’ll see Oscar and Felix on each chart. Often, there are players that are in the lineup…and maybe/probably they should not be. They get the Oscar label. And, there are those players that are out of the lineup…and maybe/probably should be included. They are the Felix for their team.
And briefly, a word about data. These strange visual displays are based on last season’s shot data, weighted by made buckets — so rookies and season-long injuries are sadly excluded. This analysis is nothing without the help of Darryl Blackport, and the research materials available atBasketball-Reference and NBA.com. Further, these charts feature some of the best logo re-designs I could curate from the ol’ Information Superhighway, including Dribbble.com and Pinterest. I made none of the logos; I merely selected some of my favorites. Enjoy!
Freaks and Geeks
By Mara Averick (@dataandme)
The Miami Heat are without three of their top five scorers from last year — Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Luol Deng accounted for more than 40 percent of the team’s regular season points. Coming over from the Phoenix Suns, Goran Dragic, sharing the backcourt with Wade, had to adjust, and his per-game point production suffered for it with an average of 14.1 in 2015-16, down from his 2013-14 high of 20.3. Given his improvement toward the end of last season (17.3 points per game after the All-Star break), as well as his averaging 18+ with Wade off the court, there’s reason to think he his scoring can increase along with his usage rate.
Sophomore Justise Winslow, and Hassan Whiteside (coming off of a double-double 14.2-point, 11.8-rebound season) are the Heat’s other returning bannermen. Whiteside has evolved into something of a defensive powerhouse. Last year, he led the league with 3.7 blocks per game by a wide margin (DeAndre Jordan came in second with 2.3), and was in the top five with 5.3 Defensive Win Shares. Winslow is somewhat more of a lopsided contributor — he finished the 2016 season with a Defensive Box Plus-Minus (DBPM) of 1.6 and Offensive Box Plus-Minus (OBPM) of -2.2 (Whiteside’s were 3.4 and -0.9, respectively). But, given coach Erik Spoelstra’s “positionless” style of play, both will have to increase their offensive facilitation this season in order for the Heat to succeed.
Whiteside has shown he certainly can power through defenders in the paint — he shot over 60 percent from the field last season, and had the highest points-to-paint-touch ratio on the team (1.131), per NBA player tracking stats. However, absent Bosh, Whiteside will likely be handling the ball more this year, and he’ll need to pass out more often (he averaged just 26.6 passes per game last year) to keep the opposing team from collapsing in on him every time. This is a moot point, though, without solid shooters on the receiving end of the passes.
Josh Richardson (when he returns from his MCL injury) will be the best catch-and-shoot option on the court. His catch-and-shoot eFG% last season was just shy of 67 percent, and was 79.4 percent after the All-Star break (though regression to the mean is to be expected). He shot 46 percent from the perimeter last year, and will definitely be seeing more opportunities to take those shots with Wade gone. Luke Babbitt is another 40 percent three-point shooter, but lacks Richardson’s versatility and has some serious defensive downside. (Babbitt’s DBPM in 2016 was -2.9, while Richardson was in the positive for the Heat’s regular season at 0.4, and 1.9 during the playoffs).
Dion Waiters is another fresh face who, if nothing else, is known for his willingness to take on an offensive production role. While Waiter’s tendency towards isolation play (over 15 percent last year with the Oklahoma City Thunder) may or may not be reigned in with the Heat, his willingness to take a long-range jumper might not be a bad fit alongside a player like Willie Reed, whose average shot attempt distance last season was 3.7 feet.
Given his latest contract, Tyler Johnson will hopefully break the 40-game mark in terms of appearances during the regular season this year. Pat Riley isn’t a man known for making frivolous investments, indicating that there’s more to Johnson’s game than his lock-down corner three (54.5 percent last season). Johnson has the speed to play an uptempo game alongside Dragic and the versatility to slide between guard slots when Roberts returns.
Everybody Loves Raymond
By Matt Cianfrone (@Matt_Cianfrone)
As of the writing of this preview Chris Bosh is officially a member of the Miami Heat. Sure, it does not look like Bosh will ever play a game for the Heat again. In fact, Pat Riley has said as much. But Bosh is on the roster and therefore he counts for this section. And with that in mind Chris Bosh is the easy answer to the question, “who is the most likable player on the Miami Heat”.
Part of this answer is that I really love players that I feel are under-appreciated. And Bosh is absolutely in that category. When he arrived in Miami years ago, Bosh was a dominant offensive force with work left to do defensively and without much of a fanbase. The fans in Toronto hated him due to the way he left, while the majority of NBA fans saw Bosh a guy who was talented but probably not among the NBA elite. Then Bosh transformed, from an offensive focal point into a defensive monster who stretched the floor like few big men in the league. He was a vital part of the Miami titles in 2012 and 2013, including the monster rebound that will never stop being played.
Along the way, Bosh unleashed his personality in Miami and how he was viewed changed quickly.
It started with his video bombing when LeBron James and Dwyane Wade were getting interviewed during the Big Three era. Bosh seemed to relish the chance to unleash his newest maneuver. When Miami unleashed their version of the Harlem Shake dance video, Bosh was there with a giant gold boombox and a rooster dance that would make those on Arrested Development proud. During the Heat championship celebration, Bosh shined by being his goofy self and dousing himself in champagne. Sure there were some missteps early on, like the bizarre scream at the infamous welcome celebration. But for the most part there were highlights based purely on Bosh having fun.
While it was the fun stuff that initially made it so easy to love Bosh, or to pick on him and ridicule him for others, it is yet another evolution of his character that makes him so easy to love. Listen to Bosh talk on just about any subject, from his recent health issues to craft beer, and you realize just how much Bosh appreciates things beyond basketball.
That is what makes the Bosh health issues even worse. With the Heat seemingly fully ready to move on from Bosh, it becomes hard to see him being around the team much this season. That means we won’t see him on the bench teaching youngsters until he is ready. Or behind the player of the game post-game interviews, making strange faces to his heart’s content. Most importantly, in a time with so many social issues swirling around the league, we lose out on of the most thoughtful and eloquent voices the league has, even if not enough people realize it.
So until Chris Bosh is officially no longer a member of the Miami Heat roster he will remain the most likable player on it. Hopefully, sometime soon Bosh is able to return to the floor and bring his uniqueness back to everyday NBA life. It is a better place with Bosh around.
Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Boy Meets World
By Trevor Magnotti (@IllegalScreens)
The Miami Heat have never really been synonymous with a youth movement. Last year, the team had some interesting young players, but they were still primarily a veteran squad. In 2016-17, their entire season depends on how much their youth can contribute.
Dwyane Wade is gone. Luol Deng is gone. Chris Bosh, unfortunately, is probably not going to be on the floor this year. This is now a team that will revolve exclusively around Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside. And while those two will have to shoulder a heavier load as the stars, it also means increased roles for Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow, and newly-minted $50 million man Tyler Johnson.
For Richardson, he will have to expand his offensive repertoire to be more than his excellent three-point shooting (46.1 percent last year) and spot-up ability. Only 22.8 percent of Richardson’s attempts came at the rim last year, and he needs to progress as a ball-handler and slasher to take advantage of his 61.3 percent shooting inside three feet. He had a really nice season last year, but needs to take that next step towards becoming the elite 3-and-D option he appears to be.
Winslow has the same general theme. He too had a nice rookie season last year, showing potential as a slasher, solid fastbreak threat on the wing, and displaying incredible potential as a defender, allowing the Heat to even play him at center for stretches. But shooting was a big hole in his game last year, as he hit just 27.6 percent from three and 35.8 percent from mid-range. His shooting form needs continued development, and he could also stand to continue to add strength to improve as a finisher and more capably handle minutes defending power forwards.
Johnson quite simply needs to progress as a playmaker. He is a former D-Leaguer who made his name as a three-point shooter and feisty defensive player. However, with his new contract, he will definitely be called upon to initiate more of the offense for Miami, especially without Wade. He needs to continue to develop as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, and be able to handle being pressured with the ball, something he hasn’t dealt with a lot of to this point. In the void to replace Dwyane Wade, Johnson filling some of Wade’s playmaking role would take pressure off of Goran Dragic and be a safe alternative if Dion Waiters doesn’t work out.
All three of these players have been amazing finds for Miami. Their partnership with the Sioux Falls Skyforce has been a model example of how to use the D-League, and they’ve done a tremendous job of bringing Winslow along. But now, the pressure is on these three players to take the next step. In order for the Heat to get back to the playoffs, they’ll need Richardson, Winslow, and Johnson to improve offensively, and become more well-developed role players that they can rely on for a variety of jobs. In turn, they’ll look to some new D-League alums to supplement them. Rodney McGruder could be a wild card as a defensive stopper on the wing, and Briante Weber will have a chance to earn some backup point guard minutes. But this Heat season hinges primarily on how last year’s young surprises continue to develop.