Milwaukee Bucks: Hamstrung

The Step Back has been born from the aesthetics and traditions of the Hardwood Paroxysm Basketball Network. In the past, Hardwood Paroxysm has produced a massive stand-alone season preview. This year, that preview effort has been rolled up into the launch of The Step Back. 

The Step Back’s writers and illustrators have prepared a hefty deep-dive into each team, built from multiple smaller sections. This year’s theme is television comedies and each section is named after some of our favorite sitcoms. For links to all 30 teams, as well as details about the focus of each section, check out our guide on how to read this preview.

Community

By Miles Wray (@mileswray)

For a long time, I’ve really liked watching the Milwaukee Bucks. Not, however, for any reason that the Bucks would probably like to hear themselves.

To me, watching the Bucks means that I am deep, deep inside the world of the NBA. A Bucks game soothes me like a security blanket. The arena — until recently — was darker, light-bulb-wise, than pretty much any other court. The players — this is mostly still true — are a touch more obscure than the incoming opponents.

You cannot watch a Bucks game by accident. You are there because you are seeking out basketball. Some people chug Pumpkin Spice or blast Christmas carols on repeat as an emotional buoy against the passing of summer, against the incoming cold. Me, I’ll take the Bucks.

Don’t even act like there are so many better, cooler ways to spend a weeknight in December.

I get it: The team would like to be associated with spring instead of winter. Bluntly: I’ll believe it when I see it. For literally decades now, the team has constantly been pushing out new logos, new lineups, new coaches, even new owners. And the Bucks have never managed to avoid, for very long, the same 35-win equilibrium.

Teams regress towards the mean from time to time. The Bucks have been locked right in the middle, as if by magnetic force. This is not a phenomenon that started with Monta Ellis, Brandon Jennings, or even Ersan Ilyasova. No, the tradition was already underway in the time of Frank Brickowski, Vin Baker, Glenn Robinson.

All of which to say: Within this context of a team, with so many season-ticket holders who have barely seen meaningful games in April, I love that the Bucks went out and drafted Thon Maker. Swing for the fences! Why not? My behemoth mancrush on Maker notwithstanding, his potential as a Giannis Antetokounmpo sidekick — or, dare I dream, Giannis might yet be the sidekick — sure looks like a top-shelf League Pass libation.

Who better than Maker to join forces with than Antetokounmpo? Giannis himself provides the best possible proof that neither pre-NBA competition level nor a projected position is all that relevant to achieving NBA success. Better instead to be powered, as Giannis is, by a wholehearted and undefeatable motor.

It took a string of smart decisions to assemble Milwaukee’s prodigiously wingspan-ed nucleus. And still the biggest issue facing the 2016-17 Bucks looks like a self-inflicted wound: Greg Monroe.

At the time Monroe put pen to paper in July of 2015 — choosing Milwaukee, pointedly, over the usual-suspect metropolises — I thought the moment was the start of a newer, brighter era of Bucks basketball. Now, unless a dramatic career reinvention is underway, it’s clear that any Bucks renaissance is taking place alongside Monroe, and not through him. In one of the most profound cases of subtraction by addition in recent years, Monroe — or was it Jabari Parker’s fault? Who else could it have been? — triggered the crumbling of a truly elite 2014-15 Bucks defense into a well-below-average edition in 2015-16. Contrary to most youth-focused teams, Milwaukee has always scuffled along on offense. Their route to success has always depended on their ability to blot out the sun with all that wingspan.

If this current iteration of the Bucks is going to truly succeed, the seeds of that success has already been planted. Also, it’s unlikely that this team — they’re younger than you’d think, even still — is going to bloom this year. It looks like another quiet winter. Maybe the last quiet winter for a while. I’ll be watching.

How I Met Your Mother

By Eli Horowitz (@CoachHorowitz13)

In his first season in Milwaukee, Jason Kidd led the Bucks to a surprising playoff berth. The Bucks finished sixth in the Eastern Conference in 2014-15, and lost to the Chicago Bulls in six games in the opening round. Primed to build on that success, the Bucks signed free agent big man Greg Monroe to a three-year, $50 million contract. Having traded Brandon Knight for Michael Carter-Williams, a move that appeared to be a gamble on a younger, less expensive point guard, the Bucks felt they had built a young, promising starting five in MCW, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, and Monroe.

But the Bucks management miscalculated. Kidd runs a read-and-react offense. This is an offense that strives for positionless basketball, where all five players work together to move the ball, cut, screen, and find open shots. This is not an offense where players stand around as one person goes to work. Nor is it an offense relying on heavy high pick-and-roll. The read-and-react is similar to a motion offense, but where a motion offense gives players freedom to read the defense and play off of it, the read-and-react places more of an emphasis on reading your teammates actions. Unfortunately, Monroe and Carter-Williams didn’t thrive in this system. Given Monroe’s lack of mobility, he is not the ideal big man for this offense. Carter-Williams’ inability to shoot makes him most effective at handling the ball, and this offense calls for the ball to move.

Give the Bucks credit for aggressively addressing these holes this offseason. They signed Matthew Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic, two players who can work in this system. Delly could start over MCW, guarding point guards on the defensive end, and playing off the ball on the offensive end. As a 41 percent three-point shooter last season, he will help space the floor. Likewise, Teletovic shot 39 percent last season, and adds even more shooting.

The Bucks also helped their cause in the draft. While Thon Maker will be a project, he is the right big man to add to Milwaukee’s young nucleus. He’s a seven-footer who is athletic, mobile, and can even step out and hit the three. He fits the Bucks direction of having length, and switchability on defense. While he may need time in the D-League, an eventual lineup of Giannis, Delly, Middleton, Parker, and Maker is much better-suited to execute Kidd’s scheme. The Bucks also drafted Malcolm Brogdon, who shot 39 percent from deep in his senior season and should fit right in.

The Bucks retooled around their trio of Giannis, Parker, and Middleton by adding off-ball shooters and a high-ceiling athletic center. Now, they will be able to use Giannis to initiate reads, and have additional shooters besides Middleton to run their “Floppy” set — the team’s favorite action to get open mid-range jumpers. This same set can now be used with Delly, Teletovic, Brodgon, and Middleton for threes. With Delly’s passing ability, the Bucks can also post up Giannis and Parker, and take advantage of mismatches. Using their guards in the post allows the Bucks to play Plumlee, Henson, or Maker, who are superior defenders to Monroe, without completely losing an inside threat. The Bucks now have the roster flexibility to use the same offensive system more effectively.

Third Rock From the Sun

By Joe Clarkin (@Joe_Clarkin)

We should start this section with a brief advisory: The Milwaukee Bucks are one of just a few teams to suffer a significant injury to one of their three best players (sorry, Philly and Detroit). That means that everyone less talented than the injured party moves up a rung on the ladder of importance. For as long as Khris Middleton is out — and it appears it’s going to be most, if not all, of the regular season — every player on the roster will be asked to do a little bit more than they would have had Middleton remained healthy. It’s not ideal, but it’s the reality that head coach Jason Kidd and his players have to deal with.

So that means the Bucks’ 10th best player will have to play like the ninth best guy. The eighth best player with have to play like the seventh. The sixth best player will have to play like the fifth. So on and so forth.

With that said, the rise up the roster is not linear. It’s a much smaller step up for the Bucks’ 12th man at the end of the bench than it is for what would nominally be their third best player — ostensibly the individual we are talking about in every Third Rock from the Sun section in this preview — who will be the one asked to fill in for Middleton as the Robin to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Batman. That’s the guy with the most pressure on him.

Considering Middleton’s absence, maybe it’s a cop out to talk about Jabari Parker in the section reserved for discussing tertiary options. Being the Bucks’ third-best player will be fine once Middleton returns, but if Milwaukee wants to get back to the playoffs — undoubtedly the goal in 2017 — Parker will need to be better than that.

Fortunately, there are the reasons to believe he can be. For one thing, he’s extremely talented. He still has the body of an old-school power forward, but combines it with the athleticism of a traditional wing, despite blowing out his knee midway through his rookie season. That combination makes him one of the best lane-fillers in the league, and there’s some LeBronishness (LeBronacity? LeBronism?) to his game when he gets a full head of steam in the open court.

Speaking of that knee injury, Parker’s recovery is another reason for optimism. There’s a cogent argument to be made that Jabari was still trying to get his feel back last season. The numbers back that up.

Parker tore his ACL on December 16, 2014. If you divide his season into two sections, pre-January 1 and post-January 1 as a signifier of his injury’s one-year anniversary, you are basically looking at two different players. In those first couple of months, Parker was rusty and it showed in his performance. His 10.6/4.1/1.2 on 47 percent shooting was OK, but clearly not to the level either he or the Bucks expected from the No. 2 pick in 2014.

Once the calendar flipped to the new year, however, we saw more and more glimpses of the guy we thought we were getting as a prospect. From January on, Parker’s stats went up in nearly every category. Between New Year’s Day and the end of the season, Parker bumped up that slash line to 16.1/5.9/2.0 on 50 percent shooting. Part of that was a function of more playing time (25.5 MPG Nov.-Dec, 35.3 MPG Jan.-Apr.), but the Bucks trusting him to be on the floor more often without risking his health should not be overlooked.

If Parker is looking to further improve his game, he’d be wise to start with his three-point shooting. Last season, Parker didn’t make his first three pointer until February and had only attempted 14 total threes through that month. That meant that he was both unwilling and unable to shoot from deep, and the Bucks spacing — a perpetual problem for this team — suffered for it.

In March and April, however, he at least showed a willingness to let it fly, putting up 25 three-point attempts in those final two months. He only made eight of those, but if that 32 percent clip and volume of shots is sustainable, that’s a definite sign of progress.

The Bucks are certainly going to need Parker to at least pose a threat to shoot the ball from distance, as Middleton was one of Milwaukee’s few above average shooters. If he can continue to build on those March and April games, they’ll be better for it.

While Middleton’s absence is certainly bad news for Bucks fans, few teams in the league have a player of Parker’s talent ready to step in and fill that void. There is star potential here, and Parker is still incredibly young — he’s 15 months younger than Buddy Hield for goodness sake.

The Bucks can still meet that goal of getting back to the Eastern Conference playoffs, but if they’re going to do it, Parker being the third best player on the team won’t be good enough.

Perfect Strangers

by Matt D’Anna (@hoop_nerd)

Ten Word Analysis: I miss Khris Middleton already but Point Giannis may suffice.

TeamSPACE charts are based on mapped clusters of shot activity. These areas are affectionately called Hunting Grounds, because they are the areas on the court where a player hunts for shots — and successfully scores most often. TeamSPACE takes the Hunting Grounds of all five players in a lineup and puts them on the court together — because, you know, they have to share that physical space, and there is only one ball.

In the past, it was one color per player; which meant that blending colors represented overlapping spaces for shot activity. But this time around, these are not your ordinary TeamSPACE shot maps. Each lineup is analyzed in the aggregate — one color! — and that unit is compared that unit to the rest of the league. So you will see a persistent red layer on every chart, highlighting the league’s Hunting Grounds from last season. The most prolific locations should come as no surprise: the paint, the corners, most of the top of the arc, and a couple of dabs at the foul line and top of the key.

So…how were these lineups chosen for each team? In the past, it’s been about projecting the starting lineup, estimating the most used lineup, or even designing the “most favoritest” lineup. This year? It’s the these charts represent the “most interestingly feasible” lineups….what? That’s a loaded phrase, so let’s unpack it a bit.

The goal is to identify the collection of five players on a team that could potentially play together, and if they did, the offensive results could be glorious. Ideally these lineups aren’t too far-fetched, but also slightly off-kilter and confusing to an opposing defense. While this type of analysis is not conducive for assessing defense, somewhat reasonable decisions are attempted to be made. So while it’s tempting to just put all the best shooters together…how realistic is it (outside of Houston, at least)? And, full disclosure: I favor some stretch in my lineups. It not only provides plenty of high-octane potential, but getting stretchy is also on par with current league-wide trends.

Each TeamSPACE chart has a couple of other sitcom-related features:

Family Matters: You’ll notice a series of Jaleel White’s across half court. Each lineup is scored on a scale of 0-7 Steve Urkels for how well it matches league-wide trends. Remember, there’s seven league Hunting Grounds (right corner three; at the rim; left corner three; foul line/top of the key; right wing; middle 3pt; left wing). A lineup gains points for matching each area; it loses points for messy excess shot activity.

Odd Couple: “Most interestingly feasible” is obviously debatable, so in order to account for some of those decisions, you’ll see Oscar and Felix on each chart. Often, there are players that are in the lineup…and maybe/probably they should not be. They get the Oscar label. And, there are those players that are out of the lineup…and maybe/probably should be included. They are the Felix for their team.

And briefly, a word about data. These strange visual displays are based on last season’s shot data, weighted by made buckets — so rookies and season-long injuries are sadly excluded. This analysis is nothing without the help of Darryl Blackport, and the research materials available at Basketball-Reference and NBA.com. Further, these charts feature some of the best logo re-designs I could curate from the ol’ Information Superhighway, including Dribbble.com and Pinterest. I made none of the logos; I merely selected some of my favorites. Enjoy!

Everybody Loves Raymond

By Matt Cianfrone (@Matt_Cianfrone)

Being a Milwaukee Bucks fan from 2002 on wasn’t easy. After an Eastern Conference Finals run in 2001 (and yes, I still believe the Bucks got robbed since they were better than the 76ers), Milwaukee fell apart thanks in part to George Karl fighting with the team’s best players. That led to a large run of uninspiring teams which were hard to stay invested in for the casual fan thanks to a severe lack of loveable players on the roster.

Sure, there were some over the years. Michael Redd was fun thanks to his ability to get hot at any moment combined with his backstory as a second round pick who turned himself into an All-NBA Third Teamer. Or Andrew Bogut, who brought a toughness and attitude that makes it impossible to root against him when he plays for your team.

But for a while, Milwaukee put together largely unimpressive teams with a largely boring and anonymous roster. In 2010, things changed a bit with the “Fear the Deer” team, but thanks to a fluke injury to Bogut that “era” ended as quickly as it begun. Yet, finally in 2013, 11 years after Milwaukee’s last likeable team, things started to change with one draft pick.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most likeable player on the Bucks. From the moment he arrived in town following his selection, that has been the case. Bucks fans were treated to a player who on the court could do the impossible, like picking up his dribble at the three-point line and still dunking. More impressively, they were treated to someone who was impossible to hate off the court.

There were the videos of the young Greek star learning how to drive. Or his discovery of smoothies and his still lasting love for them today. Or his family, celebrating big shots like they were on the court themselves because, well, Giannis somehow makes you feel like you are.

The best part of the Bucks, though, is that it doesn’t stop with Giannis. The entire roster is full of guys who radiate likeability.

Jabari Parker hits his head on the rim on the floor while speaking up on social issues in his home city of Chicago off of it. John Henson blocks shots on defense and is incredibly articulate and willing to speak on issues beyond basketball. Khris Middleton has recreated Redd’s journey from second rounder to possible All-Star.

Matthew Dellavedova is…OK,I can’t convince you Delly is likeable unless he is playing for your favorite team. But trust me, when he is playing for you, it is really easy to love him. Just ask Cleveland Cavaliers fans. I think they still like him at this point.

So yes, Giannis is the most likeable player on the Bucks. But for the first time in years, the Bucks as a whole are likeable and easy to root for. In fact, it is arguable that the Bucks are one of the most likeable teams in the entire league.

As someone who has waited a long time to really love a team, that is a pretty great feeling.

Boy Meets World

By Trevor Magnotti (@IllegalScreens)

The Milwaukee Bucks lost their most consistent two-way player for six months when Khris Middleton tore his hamstring. Without Middleton, they lose a reliable floor spacer, secondary distributor, and their best perimeter defender. To replace that production, they’ll have to rely heavily on their youth.

The primary responsibility of replacing Middleton will obviously go to the Bucks’ crown jewels: Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Both of these players are incredible athletes and have shown flashes of being able to sustain stretches of high-volume scoring. However, both players hit just 25.7 percent from the perimeter last season, and neither has proven able to provide the spacing Middleton’s shooting gives. The Bucks have added a few quality shooters (Mirza Teletovic, Matthew Dellavedova) to counteract this issue, but with only one projected starter who is a plus three-point shooter (Dellavedova), the Bucks could have some significant issues on the offensive front.

Antetokounmpo and Parker can compensate for Middleton’s absence in other ways. Antetokounmpo’s continued development as a passer and off-the-dribble scorer creates space, just because he’s so long and athletic that you almost need two defenders at minimum to stop him from getting into the paint. Parker, meanwhile, moves pretty well off the ball, and his slashing can warp a defense because his threat can draw defenders along the baseline. If he develops a better understanding of making the extra pass when he catches the ball on the baseline, he can take advantage of the holes in the defense he creates. But the bottom line is, unless one of these two becomes at least a league-average shooter, the Bucks will expect to have some issues creating quality shots consistently.

Defensively, the Bucks could be equally at a disadvantage. Antetokounmpo has all of the physical tools to be dominant, but at this point, he’s still much more style than substance. Parker, meanwhile, is the opposite; hampered by his ACL injury, he’s looked out of place athletically defending 3s and 4s, even though he seems to have a decent acumen for positioning. The Bucks already needed progression from both to shore up what was the league’s 23rd-best defense last year. Now, without Middelton, they will need both to take a significant step forward just to keep afloat.

The Bucks will also have to hope that Rashad Vaughn and Malcolm Brogdon can be ready for minutes, because in theory either could solve some of the issues Middleton’s injury presents. Vaughn was touted as a shot-maker coming out of UNLV, and though he hit just 30.5 percent of his shots last year, his shooting form and confidence could translate into him being used as a bench scorer. Brogdon, meanwhile, might be the most NBA-ready second round prospect from this draft. At 23-years-old, the Bucks now hope the learning curve will be small for a guy who has potential to shore up those defensive deficits that might present if Antetokounmpo and Parker don’t take the next step.

The Bucks’ young prospects are intimately tied to Middleton’s injury. He was the guy who covered for a lot of their flaws last year, and without him, multiple young players will need to step up, just so that the Bucks can tread water in the crowded middle class of the Eastern Conference. Antetokounmpo and Parker could both be future All-Stars; they’ll need to start playing that way for the Bucks to have a successful season.