Minnesota Timberwolves: The future is now, maybe

The Step Back has been born from the aesthetics and traditions of the Hardwood Paroxysm Basketball Network. In the past, Hardwood Paroxysm has produced a massive stand-alone season preview. This year, that preview effort has been rolled up into the launch of The Step Back. 

The Step Back’s writers and illustrators have prepared a hefty deep-dive into each team, built from multiple smaller sections. This year’s theme is television comedies and each section is named after some of our favorite sitcoms. For links to all 30 teams, as well as details about the focus of each section, check out our guide on how to read this preview.

Community

By Jeff Siegel (@jgsiegel)

After more than a decade of mediocrity following the exit of Kevin Garnett to Boston, the Minnesota Timberwolves are finally back. Mired by bad decision after bad decision, the Wolves threw away the Kevin Love era, surrounding him with mostly unplayable talent before shipping him to Cleveland in an attempt to start over.

And start over they have. Karl-Anthony Towns arrived in Minnesota as the first overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft and immediately took to the returned Garnett’s incredible work ethic and attitude on the court. You never quite know how a draft pick is going to turn out, even when you have the first pick in a draft where No. 1 is never in doubt, but Towns immediately proved himself to be one of the best young players in the league, even garnering a few All-NBA votes en route to his unanimous Rookie of the Year award victory.

However, the biggest difference in the Wolves of the mid-to-late 2000s and the Wolves of today is in their leadership. Flip Saunders opened the door by trading Love for Andrew Wiggins and drafting Towns. Now, Tom Thibodeau has been brought in to kick the door down and take the Wolves to the top.

Thibodeau is known for his defensive prowess, but he’s never done anything quite like this. During his last two stops as the defensive architect in Boston from 2007-2010 and Chicago from 2010-2015, Thibodeau had an anchor in the middle around whom the defense orbited. Garnett in Boston and Joakim Noah in Chicago provided Thibodeau with similar defensive forces; both were great communicators and timely shot-blockers who led their teams with a fiery passion matched by few in the league. While Towns had a fantastic rookie campaign, the Wolves’ staff still has to develop him into the all-around defensive monster that Garnett and Noah were for Thibodeau’s teams.

Development is the key word for this Wolves season, despite the heavy expectations being heaped upon them in the preseason. Thibodeau’s system is very difficult for young players to pick up and he’ll have his patience tested by some of his players who have never really had to defend at a high level like this before. Towns has the drive and skills to succeed in Thibodeau’s system, but wings like Zach LaVine may struggle to adopt the new philosophy under Thibodeau. The athleticism is there for LaVine and Thibodeau will either bring the best out of him or ship him out of town for someone who is willing to compete on the defensive end.

Wiggins has been largely overshadowed by the arrival of Towns, but his continued progress will be incredibly important for the Wolves. Wiggins always had the tools to become an elite defender, but he faced many of the same struggles most do during his rookie year on that end. 2015-16 was an improvement for Wiggins, a good sign for Thibodeau, who will rely on Wiggins and Ricky Rubio early on to make up for LaVine’s deficiencies. Wiggins’­ offensive game still needs work, but there are clearly tools there. He’s already excellent in the post both as a scorer and a passer, is a great finisher in transition, and has a budding pick-and-roll game. His biggest offensive improvement has to come from catch-and-shoot opportunities, especially beyond the three-point line. Wiggins struggled with his catch-and-shoot threes in the early part of last season and although he finished the season at a respectable percentage, it remains to be seen whether his second half was an anomaly or the new norm for the young star.

That’s not going to work in any offense; Wiggins has to be able to step out beyond the arc. He’s a solid finisher if he can pump and go past his guy, but defenders don’t respect his three-point shot enough to scramble out to him.

Development is everything for these young Wolves. There are going to be growing pains, especially as Thibodeau’s system gets installed, but Minnesota has a bright future after more than a decade of futility. With team control on Towns for the foreseeable future (depending on how the new CBA works out in regards to restricted free agency and other topics), they have their superstar around whom they can build.

It’s just about getting it right this time.

Art by Austin Gilmore

Arrested Development

By Kevin Yeung (@KevinHFY)

OK, so right off the bat, the name’s a bit of a misnomer. The Minnesota Timberwolves are about the surest thing there is in the league right now, as far as developing teams go. But I do like the show, and I did want to write something under the Arrested Development prompt, and HEY  —  as it turns out, the Wolves do have inherent limitations, still. Crazy.

A whole lot of people have tabbed Karl-Anthony Towns’ team for the playoffs, which is understandable, because it’s Karl-Anthony Towns. Hell, NBA 2K17 ranked the Wolves fourth in the NBA. The Wolves are awesome, they’re going to be a lot of fun, but there are waaaaay too many questions right now. Anonymity is their most inherent limitation.

You can chalk up a lot of that to the installation of Tom Thibodeau this season, and nobody doubts that he’s an upgrade over Sam Mitchell, bless his heart (and, against all odds, his candor). Thibs will help the young Wolves ascertain exactly who they are as they develop into more serious challengers. I just imagine that it’ll take some time, and there’s an awful lot to be cleared up.

Does Ricky Rubio stick? He was brilliant near the end of last season, running the show when the Wolves’ starting lineup finished as one of the top units on offense after the All-Star break. Conventional wisdom says that Rubio doesn’t shoot well enough, especially in a lineup where only one player (Zach LaVine) finished with an above average three-point percentage on the season. Towns will probably get there eventually, but you only want him hanging around the perimeter so often throughout a game, and Andrew Wiggins already weighs down heavy with his bricky jumper. Playing two non-shooters like Wiggins and Rubio together shouldn’t work, but clearly, something did. And Rubio has always made do without spacing.

It’s interesting because the Wolves considered trading Rubio for Khris Middleton last season, a more standard 3-and-D type, and that would’ve put to bed any 3-point shooting concerns. I thought Zach Lowe explained it best, when he reported and broke down the trade rumor at ESPN: “You can’t blame Minnesota for being unsure that Rubio is the right point guard for its young core. But that’s what makes this hypothetical swap so fascinating: there is something about Rubio that works in the NBA, even with all the indicators blaring that he should be a hugely damaging offensive player.”

It looks like the Wolves are willing to walk down that road again, with rookie Kris Dunn — the would-be replacement for Rubio this time. I honestly have no clue how that’ll go. I don’t know a whole lot about Dunn, I think he’ll be alright, but it’s always going to be risky to replace something that works with an early-career mystery box. Maybe it’s the kind of move they’ll have to make, since we’ve never seen what playoff-level scheming does to a Ricky Rubio team, but it could also really set them back.

The Wolves didn’t do a whole lot to add shooting this summer, either. In fact, they didn’t do much at all. They drafted Dunn and signed a trio of vets (Brandon Rush, Cole Aldrich, and Jordan Hill) to contracts with guarantees. Rush is a shooter  —  he shot over 40 percent on threes last season, every once in awhile taking over the Harrison Barnes role for the Golden State Warriors. But this is not the Warriors, and Rush is 31. It’s unlikely that he can be a significant contributor to a team’s win total.

The same goes for most of the Wolves’ bench, which is what really lets them down even if their starting lineup can keep rolling into this season. Dunn, Rush, Aldrich, and Hill will shake out in some fashion with holdovers Shabazz Muhammad, Nemanja Bjelica, and Summer League MVP Tyus Jones. It’s not going to be the best group. Muhammad somehow finished with 10 fewer assists than Kevin Garnett last season while playing over 1000 minutes more, and he doesn’t shoot, and he doesn’t defend. Maybe Thibs can help him with one of the three?

I like Bjelica and I like Jones, but neither are proven (Bjelica played about 20 good games last season, compared to 40 bad ones) and neither are saviors. That feels like the crux of the whole problem: If you look at the Wolves top to bottom, they aren’t ahead of schedule like their superstar is. They’re not ready.

Hey, prove me wrong! I’d love to see the Wolves succeed, and sooner or later, I’m sure they’ll do it. Towns, with Wiggins and LaVine as his running mates, might keep soaring past expectations. Who knows how much they’ll be able to do for a team? I’m just quite certain that the rest of that team will lag far, far behind them.

Third Rock From the Sun

By Derek James (@DerekJamesNBA)

Andrew Wiggins took the summer off from Team Canada to focus on preparing for the NBA season. Entering his third year, there’s been a lot to like from him and some obvious areas for improvement. If the Minnesota Timberwolves are going to meet their heightened expectations this season, Wiggins will need to be a big factor.

Karl-Anthony Towns is arguably the team’s best player. Ricky Rubio has been the most valuable player since his stateside arrival. The Timberwolves have been a near-.500 team with Rubio but a lottery team without him. This is where Wiggins comes in.

Before he was legally able to order a beer, Wiggins became among the best in the league at getting to the line. Wiggins finished 10th in free throw attempts per game last season, putting him in elite company with the likes of DeMarcus Cousins, James Harden, and Anthony Davis. He may not be an elite free throw shooter at 76 percent, but LeBron James has never shot better than 78 percent from the line in his career.

Among the biggest criticisms of Wiggins is that he appears to coast through games at times. Perhaps this is due to being able to rely on sheer athleticism prior to arriving in the NBA. Or maybe it’s just his casual demeanor carrying over to the court. But Wiggins loves to play. In two seasons he’s played in all but one game and strives to play 82 games each year. For a player that averages 35 minutes per game and draws so much contact, that’s an impressive number. The Timberwolves will need him to continue to stay healthy.

While Wiggins does work hard, there’s an obvious difference between Wiggins on a February night in Philadelphia and the player we see when a team like Cleveland comes to town. Wiggins always seems to kick it up a gear for important games, which is something that people would like to see more consistently. This isn’t to say that Wiggins doesn’t try, but perhaps there’s more effort exerted against better opponents.

What will make Wiggins’ third season his best yet will be improving as a shooter. He’s shot 31 percent and 30 percent on three-pointers in his first two seasons, respectively. That’s not to say that all great players have to be great shooters — Jimmy Butler has been an inconsistent shooter his entire career and is widely viewed as a star — but the Timberwolves need shooting, badly. The team looked to address this in the offseason by adding Brandon Rush, but they will need improvements from players on the roster like Wiggins. The three-point shot isn’t going away, and the Timberwolves will need Wiggins’ help in keeping pace.

Wiggins has already shown that he has a few valuable NBA skills. Being a capable defender, efficient scorer, and a knack for getting to the line are a good start, but he will need to do more. Questions still remain about his ability to move the ball and get on the boards still remain unanswered. Will this be the season we find out if he was never asked to focus on these things or are simply weaknesses? It’s likely too soon to tell, but Wiggins did spend the summer working towards an answer to these questions.

Perfect Strangers

by Matt D’Anna (@hoop_nerd)

Ten Word Analysis: Clean up those elbows and this lineup becomes very dangerous.

TeamSPACE charts are based on mapped clusters of shot activity. These areas are affectionately called Hunting Grounds, because they are the areas on the court where a player hunts for shots — and successfully scores most often. TeamSPACE takes the Hunting Grounds of all five players in a lineup and puts them on the court together — because, you know, they have to share that physical space, and there is only one ball.

In the past, it was one color per player; which meant that blending colors represented overlapping spaces for shot activity. But this time around, these are not your ordinary TeamSPACE shot maps. Each lineup is analyzed in the aggregate — one color! — and that unit is compared that unit to the rest of the league. So you will see a persistent red layer on every chart, highlighting the league’s Hunting Grounds from last season. The most prolific locations should come as no surprise: the paint, the corners, most of the top of the arc, and a couple of dabs at the foul line and top of the key.

So…how were these lineups chosen for each team? In the past, it’s been about projecting the starting lineup, estimating the most used lineup, or even designing the “most favoritest” lineup. This year? It’s the these charts represent the “most interestingly feasible” lineups….what? That’s a loaded phrase, so let’s unpack it a bit.

The goal is to identify the collection of five players on a team that could potentially play together, and if they did, the offensive results could be glorious. Ideally these lineups aren’t too far-fetched, but also slightly off-kilter and confusing to an opposing defense. While this type of analysis is not conducive for assessing defense, somewhat reasonable decisions are attempted to be made. So while it’s tempting to just put all the best shooters together…how realistic is it (outside of Houston, at least)? And, full disclosure: I favor some stretch in my lineups. It not only provides plenty of high-octane potential, but getting stretchy is also on par with current league-wide trends.

Each TeamSPACE chart has a couple of other sitcom-related features:

Family Matters: You’ll notice a series of Jaleel White’s across half court. Each lineup is scored on a scale of 0-7 Steve Urkels for how well it matches league-wide trends. Remember, there’s seven league Hunting Grounds (right corner three; at the rim; left corner three; foul line/top of the key; right wing; middle 3pt; left wing). A lineup gains points for matching each area; it loses points for messy excess shot activity.

Odd Couple: “Most interestingly feasible” is obviously debatable, so in order to account for some of those decisions, you’ll see Oscar and Felix on each chart. Often, there are players that are in the lineup…and maybe/probably they should not be. They get the Oscar label. And, there are those players that are out of the lineup…and maybe/probably should be included. They are the Felix for their team.

And briefly, a word about data. These strange visual displays are based on last season’s shot data, weighted by made buckets — so rookies and season-long injuries are sadly excluded. This analysis is nothing without the help of Darryl Blackport, and the research materials available atBasketball-Reference and NBA.com. Further, these charts feature some of the best logo re-designs I could curate from the ol’ Information Superhighway, including Dribbble.com and Pinterest. I made none of the logos; I merely selected some of my favorites. Enjoy!

Freaks and Geeks

By Andre’ Snellings (@ProfessorDrz)

The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the most exciting teams in the NBA because of their high concentration of young talent. They are starting 2015 NBA Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins and 2016 Rookie of the Year Karl-Anthony Towns, who has all of the looks of a future MVP. Zach LaVine has won the last two dunk contests as one of the most electrifying athletes at his position, Ricky Rubio is still only 25-years-old, and incoming rookie Kris Dunn is widely considered to be one of the best players in his class.

The future seems bright to say the least.

But many believe that the future might get here sooner than expected, in large part because of new head coach Tom Thibodeau. Thibs was the most eligible former coach on the market this offseason, with a track record of success that ties strongly to his excellent defensive schemes. The Timberwolves have struggled on defense over the last two seasons, so the team has a huge amount of space to improve on that side of the ball.

But realistically, how much improvement should we expect from the Timberwolves’ defense this year? Let’s take a look at the numbers, and see if a trend presents itself.

In 2015, the Timberwolves had a defensive efficiency of 112.2 points allowed per 100 possessions, which ranked 30th in the NBA (dead last). In 2016, the Wolves allowed 110.1 points per 100 possessions, ranking 28th in the league. But there was one silver lining to the Wolves’ defensive ability in those two seasons: Their response to Kevin Garnett.

In 2015, Garnett’s on-court defensive rating was a paltry 98.4. In 2016, Garnett’s on-court defensive rating was 99.8. Garnett was a very limited minutes player, so it wouldn’t make sense to extrapolate those numbers over a full game. However, he played pretty much exclusively with the starting line-up against the opposing team’s starting line-ups. This indicates that the current cast of young Wolves actually have shown the ability to play excellent defenses against opposing starters, at least in limited minutes. Also, much of Garnett’s physical ability was gone at this point in his career, which means that his biggest contributions to those defenses was likely verbal and strategizing, making sure that the rest of the team was where they needed to be to maximize the defense.

This is crucial, because that is EXACTLY where Thibodeau can help the most. Obviously he won’t be on the court the way that KG was (even in limited minutes), but as the head coach Thibs sets the policy and teaches the team where they need to be. And Thibodeau has a track record of translating his scheme into big results, even in year one at a new location.

In 2007, the Boston Celtics ranked 16th in the NBA with a team defensive rating of 106.9 points allowed per 100 possessions. In 2008, Thibs’ first year running the defense as assistant coach, the Celtics improved dramatically to 98.9 points allowed per 100 possessions to lead the NBA with one of the best defenses in history. To be fair, Garnett was also added to the defense and his impact was immense. But in 2011, when Thibs went to coach the Chicago Bulls, Garnett did not come along, and the Bulls’ defense still improved from 11th in the NBA (105.3 points allowed/100 possessions) in 2010 to first in the NBA (100.3 points allowed/100 possessions) in 2011.

In those two stops, Thibodeau-led defenses were 6.1 percent stingier in his first season coaching than they were the year before he arrived. If that trend were to hold true this year in Minnesota, the Timberwolves’ defensive rating would improve from 110.1 to 103.4 points allowed per 100 possessions, a mark that would have ranked as the fourth best in the NBA in 2016.

So yes, the Timberwolves do have one of the most exciting young rosters in the NBA. The future is bright. But if they respond to Thibodeau’s defensive molding the way that they responded to Garnett, which is similar to the way that Thibodeau’s teams have responded to him in his last two stops, then the Wolves’ present could start to look very bright as well.

Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

Everybody Loves Raymond

By Matt Cianfrone (@Matt_Cianfrone)

I am going to be honest here: I never wanted to like Karl-Anthony Towns. It is a complicated thing, but the gist of it is that growing up his father coached at one of my rival high schools and, well, did a lot of things that I didn’t like. Sure, that isn’t fair to the younger Karl. I never pretended it was. And then last year happened. Suddenly I found myself not hating KAT so much. As we enter this season the hate is gone. Now I full on root for Towns to be great.

It started with Towns’ relationship with Kevin Garnett.

Like myself, Towns grew up idolizing Garnett and the impact he had on the game. So when Towns ended up in a position to learn from the legend himself, he did just that. It was amazing to see the pair bond the way they did. When Garnett unleashed a throwback dunk on Blake Griffin during the regular season, Towns reacted like a child. When Garnett retired this summer, Towns reacted on Twitter with an ellipses and turned his profile picture and banner picture pitch black. When Towns finally “spoke” on the matter, it was to drop an Instagram farewell that clearly came from Towns and not some random PR person running his account. The post dripped of emotion and ended with a promise to his idol and father figure that he would “take it from here.”

The post crystallized what that relationship taught us about who Towns really is and what really drives him. A lot of NBA players talk the talk about wanting to be a great player, and Towns is definitely in that category. Just about every quote relates in some way to his wanting to be great, to be a champion, to be remembered among the greatest players of all time.

When he loses you can see on his face and in his body language how much it pains him. When he wins, like the late season upset of the Golden State Warriors that he had a large part in making happen, you can see how much it means to him.

And that is what makes Towns so likeable. As fans we want to see players be great. After all, the more great players that there are in the league, the better the NBA is as a whole. While most players do seem to want to reach that point, Towns is so vocal and visible about it, to the point that it feels different than other players.

It also helps that when Towns isn’t worrying about winning championships and getting better, he is having fun. There was the time he went with Andrew Wiggins to Treyarch to play new Call of Duty maps. Or when he kissed a tiger. Or when he dunked on just about his entire basketball camp.

So yes, on a team full of likeable players (Ricky Rubio, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Pekovic would all be the most likeable players on a handful of other teams), Towns is the most likeable. Even for those of us that started out trying to find ways to not like him.

Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

Boy Meets World

By Chris Stone (@cstonehoops)

Expectations are complicated. On the one hand, expectations are positive — they’re a sign that observers have confidence that an individual, or group of individuals, can achieve the potential that those observers believe they possess.

On the other hand, expectations can be a burden. In the basketball world, we don’t have to look any further than the Golden State Warriors. Their record setting regular season will likely be viewed as a historical footnote because the Warriors blew a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals — a spectacular failure to live up to the expectations thrust upon them by those who watched them demolish an entire league for the better part of a year. When expectations are sky high and an individual or team fails to meet or surpass them, backlash often follows.

Enter the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Wolves’ organization has amassed an impressive collection of young talent, including a pair of former No. 1 picks, and topped it off with one of the summer’s most exciting coaching hires in Tom Thibodeau. After finishing last season with the fifth-worst record in the league at 29-53, talk of sneaking into the Western Conference playoff picture is already finding its way to Minneapolis and beyond.

There is one main reason to temper those expectations, though, as the reality of next season may not match up to the rosy picture being painted this offseason. After all, the Timberwolves are still an incredibly young group.

Second-year big man Karl-Anthony Towns is likely the most talented young prospect in the league. He’s already displayed impressive versatility on the defensive end of the floor and should do well as the anchor of Thibodeau’s defensive schemes. Towns is also a capable scorer on the offensive end. In his rookie season, he averaged 18.3 points per game while connecting on 54.2 percent of his field goal attempts. Still, the former Kentucky Wildcat won’t surpass the legal drinking age until Minnesota’s 10th game of the season. To expect him to shoulder the majority of the load for a team that will need to win nearly 50 games to make the playoffs may simply be too much to ask.

Towns shares the burden of expectations with Andrew Wiggins, another former No. 1 pick, who is entering his third year in the pros. Wiggins’ time in the league hasn’t been as fruitful as his teammate’s. He’s struggled to score efficiently and his lack of an outside shot has limited his offensive growth. On the other end of the floor, his physical tools have yet to translate. Wiggins, though, is far from a finished product. The hope is that the addition of Thibodeau will help transform the 21-year-old into a multi-positional defender and a viable second option on offense, making him a valuable cog in the team’s long-term plans.

The Wolves’ remaining youth will all likely feature in complementary roles alongside Towns and Wiggins going forward. Zach LaVine is a bouncy combo guard still searching out his proper role on the roster and Tyus Jones showed flashes of brilliance at Summer League in Las Vegas. Meanwhile, fourth-year players Shabazz Muhammad and Gorgui Dieng will be fighting to show that they’re deserving of a bigger role as restricted free agency looms next offseason.

Rookie Kris Dunn is the youth movement’s best chance at a third wheel to Towns and Wiggins. The physically mature 22-year-old should be ready to contribute quickly as a playmaking guard who has the strength to defend multiple positions. Dunn’s looseness with the ball is a bit of a red flag, but it will help that he won’t be the focal point of the offense and will be surrounded with better players than he was at Providence.

Even with a young core, Minnesota is already staring heightened expectations in the face as the 2016-17 season approaches. How well reality reflects those expectations will be the story to follow for the Timberwolves this year. If the young Wolves falter, there will no doubt be plenty of critics, but the important thing to remember is that the team is still developing and finding its identity. As Towns, Wiggins, and the other up-and-comers on the roster slowly begin to fulfill some of their potential, those expectations will continue to balloon. The best news for Wolves’ fans is that they’re good enough to deserve it.