The modern NBA big man: What’s old is new
The NBA has become one of the most progressive sports in the world. With coaches and front offices continuing to invest in analytics and efforts to push the boundaries of basketball, it seems like innovation is at an all-time high.
Right now, the league is in the midst of an era defined by guards who can make plays in space and create out of the pick-and-roll. Mike D’Antoni and the “Seven Seconds or Less” Phoenix Suns, led by two time MVP Steve Nash, are to thank for that. Nash was the original version of the modern guard who can probe the defense off ball screens, snaking around the floor to either find the open shooter or throw nifty passes to the roll man.
Now, reigning two time MVP Steph Curry has won the hearts of fans everywhere thanks to the combination of his incredible shooting and the elite passing that he and his Warriors’ team have showcased the past two seasons. It’s no coincidence that Warriors head coach Steve Kerr was the GM in Phoenix during the D’Antoni/Nash era Suns. It seems like everyone is trying to emulate those teams, finding the next great perimeter players who can shoot off the dribble and make plays in space.
With the emphasis on spacing in the modern era of basketball, the skillset for big men has changed as well. The 1990’s and early 2000’s were dominated by back-to-the-basket big men. Guys like Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan, David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, and others became household names because of the work they did against anyone who dared challenge them on the block.
Things have changed since the mid-2000’s, however. Instead of searching for wide bodied, thick, low-to-the-ground bigs, now teams thirst for the nimble and athletic seven-footer who can block shots at the rim and catch lobs for dunks in the pick-and-roll. Just as much as perimeter shooting spaces the floor, so does a player slicing right towards the rim, sucking in defenders trying to prevent an easy basket. It’s pick your poison for defenses trying to thwart these types of personnel: give up the lob or help down and give up a wide open three — the two most efficient shots in basketball.
This is the reason why players such as DeAndre Jordan and Hassan Whiteside received max contracts during their free agencies. Dwight Howard, despite being on the wrong side of thirty and having reoccurring injuries, signed a deal for over $20 million per season with the Hawks, who hope he can be close to the former All-NBA center he was early in his career. Bismack Biyombo went from reserve center to a $68 million man because of this skill set. Even Ian Mahimni got a huge contract this offseason.
These same skill set will also help players such as Rudy Gobert and Steven Adams get maximum extensions this fall. Teams have been devoting a large chunk of their salary cap for a guy who can anchor their defense and play a role on offense where they don’t need the ball all the time.
Art by Todd Whitehead (@CrumpledJumper)
Because of this evolution, the need for a classic throwback post player is almost gone. Now, those types of players are seen as guys who would be better suited coming off the bench and carrying offenses in the second unit rather than being a franchise building block. Al Jefferson went from All-NBA center to backup in just two seasons. Greg Monroe was a max player, seen as possibly the biggest free agent signing in Milwaukee Bucks history. Just one year later, rumors continue to swirl about Milwaukee shopping Monroe, bringing him off the bench while they search for the right deal. Having a player who can consistently get you points on the block is more of a luxury than a necessity in 2016.
Will the pendulum of history ever swing back to players such as Hakeem, Shaq, and Ewing dominating the league? Or is the new slim, rim-running seven-footer here to stay? It’s hard to argue against the possible death of the post-up. If you think about it, ball screen diving big men produce the most efficient shots in basketball. Depending on how the defense covers a ball screen, the majority of the time the options for the ball-handler are either a shot for himself, a layup/dunk for the roll man, or an open three for someone spotting up. That’s the goal, and with the right personnel in place, it is almost impossible to stop. For the 180 players who finished at least 100 possessions out of the pick-and-roll (ball-handler or roll man), the average points per possession was 0.89 according to the play-type statistics at NBA.com.
What does the efficiency of a post up look like in comparison with a pick-and-roll? Last season, 64 players finished at least 100 possessions in the post. The average efficiency was the same 0.89 points per possession as the players who finished possession out of the pick-and-roll. It’s somewhat telling that only about a third as many players were able to score that efficiently or that often out of the post. The pick-and-roll is is easier to score out of but good post players still have value.
If you think about the breakdown of a post-up, you can see why it might be just as efficient of an action as pick-and-roll play. If you’re throwing the ball to a player on the block, your team clearly sees an advantage for them to score, otherwise they wouldn’t throw the ball to that player. Once the ball is in the post, that player has a few options that are high percentage plays. If he is one on one, he can go to his move and create a comfortable shot for himself. If a double team comes, it is often a choice between the pass to an open shooter spotting up, or a guy cutting to the basket for a layup, two of the most efficient shots in basketball.
Art by Todd Whitehead (@CrumpledJumper)
Let’s take one of the dominant post players in the league today, DeMarcus Cousins, and use him as an example. Cousins’ most common play type was a post-up, a situation that accounted for 19.4 percent of his offense, 363 possessions total, according to the NBA’s play type stats. Cousins finishing as the roll man off ball screens accounted for 14.8 percent of his offense, a total of 278 possessions. Cousins efficiency in the post was 0.96 points per possession and 0.98 points per possession as a roller.
The Kings also scored at a rate of 0.95 points per possession when Cousins passed out of the post. Sacramento as a team last season ranked 16th at 0.94 points per possession on offense with former head coach George Karl, a man not famous for running his offense through players in the post. It will be interesting to see if new head coach Dave Joerger will shift the team more towards Cousins in the post, seeing as that action seemed to be a tad more efficient than what their normal base offense was last season.
All of this is in a small sample size and might be a stretch to say, but it makes sense that having a dominant back to the basket post player as the focal point of your team can still be an effective and efficient way to win. If this is the case, what are the downsides and why are teams straying away from skilled post players?
There are a few reasons why it is hard to justify building your team around a dominant post player. For as great as Cousins is in the post, he gives up just as much on the defensive end. The way that post-up guys are normally built — wide, thick, and heavier — doesn’t translate well on the other end of the floor. With the emphasis on space and guard play in the league now, guys like these are run ragged in ball screens and put on islands by themselves to guard quicker players all the time. It is sometimes worthwhile to sacrifice the skill on the offensive end for bigs who can move well laterally and stop the progress of the ball while also retreating back to protect the rim.
With the increase in spacing and ball movement now, the aesthetics of the game have also become more pleasing to the eye. It is exciting to watch the Warriors, Spurs, and Cavaliers swing the ball side to side to find the open man. On the contrary, throwing the ball into the post and watching a guy hold the ball while other players stand and wait for the pass can get boring. There might not be a coincidence that the NBA is experiencing its greatest following during the era of pace and space basketball.
Art by Todd Whitehead (@CrumpledJumper)
This isn’t an argument to say that one way is more efficient and absolutely better than the other. There are advantages and disadvantages to both types of big men, and ideally you want a big man that can do everything; protect the rim, jump for lobs, score and pass out of the post, and switch out to guard multiple positions. Those players are rare, normally ending up as hall of famers like Kareem, Hakeem, and Wilt. The only ones that probably fit that mold now are Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Davis, and even then neither are quite to the point where you would consider them dominant go-to scorers. Outside of that, teams are often getting one or the other when it comes to big men.
You can win a championship building your team around either type of big men but, as with any other superstar player, you have to have the correct personnel around them. In the mid 90’s when the Rockets won two straight championships, they built their team around Hakeem in the post, spreading the floor with shooters at every position around him. This allowed Hakeem to make reads and pass to open shooters when another man would come help. The same goes for an athletic roll man. You need to have shooting at other spots on the floor and a point guard who can make the right reads.
The best big men in the league haven’t had the perfect environments for them to succeed yet. Sacramento continues to draft and surround Cousins with players either at his position or who can’t shoot (or both). Even someone like DeAndre Jordan, the perfect guy to have as a rim runner, hasn’t had the optimum personnel around him. Chris Paul is one of the greatest playmakers in NBA history, but they’ve only had J.J. Redick as a reliable spot up shooter around him. Rudy Gobert has had the shooting around him, but the Jazz have searched through the draft, free agency, and trade market to try and find a point guard with elite playmaking skills. The reason we haven’t seen a team win a championship with a team constructed around a center in the last five years is because there hasn’t been the perfect construction around one.
We have some younger big men in the league that are going to be franchise cornerstones for their teams. Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, Kristaps Porzingis, and even Andre Drummond all have a path that could one day lead them to be the best player for a title contending team. As they get older and develop the necessary skills to be that type of player, it is up to their teams to surround them with players that will maximize their skills and create efficient offense. Whether it’s a back to the basket big man or a supreme athlete diving towards the rim, you can still win a championship with that guy being your main centerpiece.