The NBA MVP race is the same as it ever was

Over the last few years, the NBA has become wealthy well talent. Right now, it is arguably as well off as it’s ever been from this standpoint. Yet, much this talent has yet to become fully formed which leaves us, once again, with the LeBron James Generation as the primary frontrunners for the MVP award.

Greats like Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, and Kevin Garnett are gone. The league saw a smooth transition from them to LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and even Stephen Curry. As much as they’ve been annointed, it’s unclear if players like Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Anthony Davis are ready to usher in the NBA’s next era. In fact, we don’t even know who the face of that era will be. Curry will turn 29 years old during the season, making him too old. His prime will likely be ending as players like Karl-Anthony Towns reach theirs.

The league itself appears to be at the start of a transition as a group of transcendent stars begin to age off the peaks of their prime.

Figuring out a preseason MVP favorite is difficult. Since the trophy was first awarded for the 1955-1956 season, age has alwards played a factor. Just 13 of the 61 winners have been over the age of 30, while only 12 have been under 25 years old. That means that more than half of the league’s MVP have been between the ages of 25-29. This makes sense since most players peak in their mid-to-late 20’s. The exceptions this trend rank among the league’s all-time greats, and Derrick Rose.

The average age of the last 10 MVPs is 26.1 years old. In that time, we’ve seen Derrick Rose as the youngest MVP of the last 10 years (22 years old) and Kobe Bryant as the oldest (29). Historically, it’s been rare to have players as young as Anthony Davis or Karl-Anthony Towns, who are regarded as potentially once-in-a-generation players, win MVP. Young players typically wind up on bad teams with other young players, making it unlikely to receive serious consideration. Rose was fortunate to come into the NBA on a good team thanks to the Bulls’ miraculous lottery luck. As great as Towns and Davis’ ceilings are, their teams are unlikely to win enough games to receive serious consideration this year.

A part of the problem with projecting an MVP favorite is that two of the three previous winners — Steph Curry and Kevin Durant — now play on the same team. In recent years, Curry, Durant, and LeBron James would comprise three of the top five candidates. With this shift in balance, Durant or Curry winning seems less likely now that they’re teammates. Logically, Durant and Curry are going to take shots from each other. Then again, Durant won MVP next to Russell Westbrook and Curry did so with Klay Thompson.

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Among the early favorites is Russell Westbrook — a five-time All-Star and All-NBA selection who turns 28 years old in-season. Without Durant, Westbrook will be the unimpeachable primary option in Oklahoma City. The question will be if the Thunder can win enough games to legitimize an MVP case. Steven Adams, Enes Kanter, and Victor Oladipo are viable options, but none are going to replace Durant. If they can’t, can the Thunder win enough in what figures to be a competitive Northwest division? In all likelihood, it will take at least 50 wins for Westbrook to have a viable case since MVP awards rarely go to good-not-great teams.

LeBron James is still a great player but there are many factors affecting him this season. With over 38,000 regular season minutes and another 8,000 minutes in the playoffs, he has some miles on him. While that doesn’t mean he’ll fall off a cliff, there’s the chance for some regression and/or rest along the way. At 32-years old, James would join an exclusive group to win the award after the age of 30. Hakeem Olajuwon, Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone, Wilt Chamberlain, Julius Erving, Bill Russell, Magic Johnson, and Steve Nash currently comprise the list; James would be number 10.

A strong candidate to join the list of greats to have won MVP after their 30th birthday would be Chris Paul. The Los Angeles Clippers were one of the more stable teams in the West this offseason. Plus, they’ll add Blake Griffin who played just 35 games on a 53-win team. This would easily give a Paul-led team the wins to enter the MVP discussion. If the Clippers lock down the second seed in the conference and Paul is healthy, he could very well become a favorite to win.

So, why is there no clear frontrunner despite all this talent? The league may be in transition.

The 76ers have invested in several high draft picks but many of those picks have struggled with injury. Say Joel Embiid were healthy his first two seasons, where would he rank among the league’s best? While it’s not wise to place too much stock into preseason, Embiid has looked good and it only took Anthony Davis two seasons to become a trendy MVP pick last season. At worst, it seems that Embiid would have added to the talent pool. Yet, these players, like Towns, are historically too young to factor into the MVP conversation.

While many feel that there’s not much intrigue to this year’s season because of the expected dominance of the Warriors, the MVP race is wide open. If a new generation doesn’t assert itself this season, we may have to wait another year or two. There’s nothing wrong with watching Curry, James, and Durant at the forefront of the MVP conversation, again. There’s just something exciting about seeing fresh faces enter the fold.

And we can see that a new era is beginning to dawn.