New Orleans Pelicans: One standard deviation away
The Step Back has been born from the aesthetics and traditions of the Hardwood Paroxysm Basketball Network. In the past, Hardwood Paroxysm has produced a massive stand-alone season preview. This year, that preview effort has been rolled up into the launch of The Step Back.
The Step Back’s writers and illustrators have prepared a hefty deep-dive into each team, built from multiple smaller sections. This year’s theme is television comedies and each section is named after some of our favorite sitcoms. For links to all 30 teams, as well as details about the focus of each section, check out our guide on how to read this preview.
Community
By Miles Wray (@mileswray)
Predicting what will happen in the NBA is hard enough that nobody can really do it. Forget trying to identify June’s champion from here, in the fall: plenty of times we can’t figure the winner of a seven-game series from as up close as Game 1. For as many doomed predictions as I’ve released unto the Internet, though, I remain extremely confident in predicting what the Pelicans will do in 2016-17. Among the 30 teams, New Orleans feels, to me, like the uncontested dunk of predictions.
I’m not deviating from the conventional wisdom one bit: Between 30-40 wins. A magnificently stuffed stat line from Anthony Davis — an increased sense of tedium and boredom emanating from Ant Davis. Injuries. Oh, there will be injuries. February and March will see the Pelicans dominating the transactions page, as they do each spring, grabbing a bushel of 10-day experiments and seeing them — whoops — pushed by necessity into the starting lineup.
The Pelicans have a well-worn routine for the summer months, too, which they could repeat in July 2017 to the surprise of no one. Each summer the team trawls a layer of free agency somewhere above the bargain bin but well below the A-List. The strategy doesn’t sound bad in theory — don’t put all your salary cap eggs in one basket, right? In practice, New Orleans ends up with a roster full of players who produced for their former teams, sure; but they didn’t produce enough for that former team to actually step up with the checkbook themselves. On this year’s roster, only Davis and this June’s draft picks — Buddy Hield and Cheick Diallo — are homegrown Pelicans.
What makes New Orleans’ uninspired water-treading such a puzzle is that, between General Manager Dell Demps and head coach Alvin Gentry, there is hardly a braintrust in the league that has spent more time around Gregg Popovich and R.C. Buford. Gentry’s history with the Spurs duo is so rich that he knew them before they were the Spurs duo: Gentry, Popovich, and Buford were all assistants under Larry Brown at the University of Kansas in the eighties. Demps played for the Spurs before working five years in the team’s front office — before age 40 — and Popovich told the media that New Orleans had made a “master stroke” when they hired him.
It’s not like you can find a stronger pair of credentials out there to come in and lead a team. So what happened? When, and how, did this program go awry?
Popovich will sometimes credit the tenacious work habits and titanium moral backbone of David Robinson for the Spurs’ success — like their current, ongoing, present-day success. The reason being that, when San Antonio drafted Tim Duncan, Duncan was immediately part of a disciplined, organized locker room. Robinson provided the fertile soil where that famous “Spurs culture” could grow. There is more of a direct line than maybe we would think going from Robinson to Duncan, and now Duncan to Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, and one day to Kawhi Leonard.
Looking at the Pelicans makes me think that Popovich is being genuine in crediting Robinson, still, 13 years after his retirement. It is not, after all, a piece of intentionally obtuse Popovich-speak. Anthony Davis is as talented a basketball player as Duncan and Robinson ever were — matching the San Antonio Twin Towers’ career best statistics from below the legal drinking age. But there has never been a Robinson in New Orleans. Not even close: the most experienced teammates Davis had in his rookie year were Lou Amundson, Hakim Warrick, Roger Mason.
Without David Robinson, Tim Duncan might never have become Tim Duncan. We’re on pace to seeing Anthony Davis fall well short of Tim Duncan, too. No one has been there to teach Davis how to translate all that talent into skills that boost teammates, secure wins.
In 2016-17, it will be another year of tension in New Orleans building up to that inevitable breaking point.
The Odd Couple
By Brian Schroeder (@Cosmis)
What’s the opposite of oil and water? Oil and more oil? Tyreke Evans and Lance Stephenson are that. They’re almost the same player, with the same career trajectories. Both are long armed combo guards who parlayed a break out season into bigger contracts than they ever should have gotten and are now coasting on their reputations even as their offensive efficiencies plummet farther and farther.
This isn’t to say that Reke and Lance don’t have their talents. They’ve both become better defenders over time, and they’re both gifted passers when the mood strikes them. My biggest question is how New Orleans plans on playing them together. If they are without Jrue Holiday for any extended period (for reasons that are far more important than basketball), they’ll have an opening for more minutes at the point guard spot. It stands to reason that Evans will get major burn there, but what about Lance? Until Jrue makes it back, their backcourt is going to be a mess, and is playing two versions of the same guy really going to help keep it together?
I Love Lucy
By Kevin Yeung (@KevinHFY)
What a weird career it’s been for Terrence Jones. He would seem to have all of the tools — energy, athleticism, foot-speed, ball-handling, passing smarts, a half-decent jumper — but instead of assembling the full mosaic last season, he went for skillset musical chairs instead. Eight rebounds one night, three steals the next, a couple of three-pointers here and there, but never it all at once. Instead of cashing out this summer like everybody else, Jones signed a one-year minimum deal with the New Orleans Pelicans.
Obviously, the Pelicans want him to put it together. They spent their cap boom money on a wide number of players, working to build up some depth after the last few years of assorted broken fingers, knee surgeries and atomic dismantling. But they also need players that can grow into anything resembling a long-term partner for Anthony Davis, and even if he doesn’t come with a clean bill of health, Jones is a cost-effective go at the lottery, the kind of signing on the low to cap off a summer of Solomon Hill, E’Twaun Moore and Langston Galloway.
Jones has the feel of a Kenneth Faried-esque hustle player also given the rudiments of a playmaking 4. Versatility is the name of the game, but the enemy of dynamism is chaos. Sometimes, a dose of chaos can benefit a team, but not this kind: you don’t know what you’re getting from Jones on a nightly basis, if you’re getting anything at all. Maybe you pass to Three-Point Shooter Terrence Jones on a night where you need Drive-and-Kick Terrence Jones and that messes up your offense’s juju. You read the star maps and tell me. (I like to think that where Daryl Morey is a numbers guy, Dell Demps is a cosmic divination guy.)
It was just two seasons ago that Jones was putting up 12 and 7 with two blocks and a 35.1 percent clip from three for the Houston Rockets. It’s too soon to be invoking Anthony Randolph; if Jones can get healthy enough to find a rhythm, it probably ain’t too late for him. He hasn’t played more than 50 games in a regular season since his second year in 2013–14 (76 games played), and this will be his fifth season in the NBA. It’s not too late. It’s never too late, says Anthony Randolph.
Baby steps! Jones’ injury history hasn’t been a pattern of chronic or lingering issues. If things lean in his favor, who knows how his path might diverge. Stability in the NBA is a fickle thing, and Jones and the Pelicans would benefit from a dose of it. There’s opportunity abound in New Orleans, whether or not the team is healthy. Anthony Davis is the team’s primary 4, but the back-up slot is probably between Jones and Dante Cunningham. The latter is a perfectly fine plug-and-play, but he’s never flashed upside like Jones.
The Pelicans will probably want to play small for some stretches this season, shifting Davis to center and most likely inserting Solomon Hill at 4. They might be better off if Jones can factor in, since Davis hasn’t shown to be physically assertive enough to pair with a big wing instead of an actual big. Jones isn’t anything special of a rebounder, but the 30 pounds over Hill to throw around down low makes a difference and he might be the best power defender of the three in the post. (Also, Hill manning the 4 probably means a microscopic perimeter pack, like Tim Frazier, Galloway and Moore.)
Nothing in the NBA is as pure as a player’s upside — Jones has good games interspersed with the bad, his career hangs somewhere in the limbo between the two, and nobody can tell me nothing about how it all plays out. Amid the pure mania, something of value exists in his game . Now it’s about installing a bit of order.
Perfect Strangers
by Matt D’Anna (@hoop_nerd)
Ten Word Analysis: Buddy and Quincy might change everything about this chart! Maybe.
TeamSPACE charts are based on mapped clusters of shot activity. These areas are affectionately called Hunting Grounds, because they are the areas on the court where a player hunts for shots — and successfully scores most often. TeamSPACE takes the Hunting Grounds of all five players in a lineup and puts them on the court together — because, you know, they have to share that physical space, and there is only one ball.
In the past, it was one color per player; which meant that blending colors represented overlapping spaces for shot activity. But this time around, these are not your ordinary TeamSPACE shot maps. Each lineup is analyzed in the aggregate — one color! — and that unit is compared that unit to the rest of the league. So you will see a persistent red layer on every chart, highlighting the league’s Hunting Grounds from last season. The most prolific locations should come as no surprise: the paint, the corners, most of the top of the arc, and a couple of dabs at the foul line and top of the key.
So…how were these lineups chosen for each team? In the past, it’s been about projecting the starting lineup, estimating the most used lineup, or even designing the “most favoritest” lineup. This year? It’s the these charts represent the “most interestingly feasible” lineups….what? That’s a loaded phrase, so let’s unpack it a bit.
The goal is to identify the collection of five players on a team that could potentially play together, and if they did, the offensive results could be glorious. Ideally these lineups aren’t too far-fetched, but also slightly off-kilter and confusing to an opposing defense. While this type of analysis is not conducive for assessing defense, somewhat reasonable decisions are attempted to be made. So while it’s tempting to just put all the best shooters together…how realistic is it (outside of Houston, at least)? And, full disclosure: I favor some stretch in my lineups. It not only provides plenty of high-octane potential, but getting stretchy is also on par with current league-wide trends.
Each TeamSPACE chart has a couple of other sitcom-related features:
Family Matters: You’ll notice a series of Jaleel White’s across half court. Each lineup is scored on a scale of 0-7 Steve Urkels for how well it matches league-wide trends. Remember, there’s seven league Hunting Grounds (right corner three; at the rim; left corner three; foul line/top of the key; right wing; middle 3pt; left wing). A lineup gains points for matching each area; it loses points for messy excess shot activity.
Odd Couple: “Most interestingly feasible” is obviously debatable, so in order to account for some of those decisions, you’ll see Oscar and Felix on each chart. Often, there are players that are in the lineup…and maybe/probably they should not be. They get the Oscar label. And, there are those players that are out of the lineup…and maybe/probably should be included. They are the Felix for their team.
And briefly, a word about data. These strange visual displays are based on last season’s shot data, weighted by made buckets — so rookies and season-long injuries are sadly excluded. This analysis is nothing without the help of Darryl Blackport, and the research materials available at Basketball-Reference and NBA.com. Further, these charts feature some of the best logo re-designs I could curate from the ol’ Information Superhighway, including Dribbble.com and Pinterest. I made none of the logos; I merely selected some of my favorites. Enjoy!
Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
Freaks and Geeks
By Senthil Natarajan (@SENTH1S)
The buzzword for the Pelicans offseason has been “defense.” The plan was to bring in some mid-level, solid if unspectacular, players who would be able to provide some stability on defense with the ability to switch multiple positions while hoping they can hit a few threes in the process.
For a team where the primary issue was defense, none of the Pelicans main wings last year (Evans, Gordon, Babbitt, Cunningham) left the season with a positive defensive box plus-minus rating. The Pelicans were the worst in the league in terms of points-per-possession given off of spot up shots, at 1.06. Worse, New Orleans was not only ninth in the league in three-point attempts given up, but also third-worst in the league in defensive field goal percentage at the rim (54.8 percent). They were ineffective at protecting the two most critical areas of the court.
Enter Solomon Hill. Of all the Pelicans acquisitions, Hill has to be considered the prize (insofar as any of them can be considered a prize), and should be able to embed himself into the starting small forward spot. Even though individual three-point defense can be inherently noisy, the fact that opposing players shot almost 10 percent worse than their average against Hill from deep last year is still large enough of a difference to warrant attention. Of course, with Hill, his contract was written almost completely on the basis of his playoff performance. Checking those playoff statistics, in extended playing time, Hill only allowed 2.4 three-point attempts per game while still maintaining a negative three-point differential. Hill also only gave up 0.85 points per possession off of spot up shots last season, a better mark than Kawhi Leonard.
Even better though, for someone who will be expected to slide between the small forward and power forward spots often this year, opposing players shot a whopping 12.6 percent worse than their average against Hill from inside the arc during the playoffs. From every single distance range, Hill produced a negative differential on defense, which should be a boon for a team that could desperately use a versatile defender at the wing. He has displayed the ability to slide around position-wise, spending 13 percent of his minutes at shooting guard last season, 59 percent at small forward, and 28 percent at power forward. If he can translate over his improved three-point shooting percentages from late last season and the playoffs, he could give the Pelicans a formidable small-ball power forward next to Anthony Davis without sacrificing on the defensive end, which was always the unenviable tradeoff.
Of course, small sample size caveats always apply, but New Orleans has hedged its bets this offseason on the hope that players like Solomon Hill and E’Twaun Moore, who showed out in small sample sizes, can continue to maintain their level of play with higher usage. If they can continue to trend in the right direction, the Pelicans might finally be on the road to responsibly developing a long-term contender around Anthony Davis.
Everybody Loves Raymond
By Matt Rutkowski (@MontaWorldPeace)
Ow.
The New Orleans Pelicans were not one of the happy stories of last year. They were coming off an unlikely playoff berth under the guidance of extremely likeable person Monty Williams. Anthony Davis seemed primed for a potential MVP run. There was hope and stuff. There was a party.
With the season approaching, even the loss of Monty seemed to be a potential boon. Alvin Gentry would bring the offensive keg that’d turn Davis into a mix of prime Amare Stoudemire and God. Maybe Eric Gordon would reacquire some massive value in a quicker game. Jrue and Tyreke would fill in the statistical gaps. The team might make a leap. Who knows? It could happen!
It didn’t happen. We hoped too hard. Now there’s a lingering hangover. My soul wants to vomit.
Still. There must be something, someone to like. Anthony Davis? Yeah, he’s cool. He’s got a unibrow, and that’s charming. He’s also still one of the most promising players in a league of promising players. But it’s just hard, you know? I can remember the good times in 2014, but I can’t get the smell of last year out of my clothes.
Jrue Holiday? Everything that has come out about Jrue this summer makes him out to be one of the most genuinely respectable human beings in the entire NBA. I would more easily describe him as admirable than likeable. I’d rather meet him at the graduation ceremony than the afterparty.
Lance Stephenson? If I’m going to hold last year against Anthony Davis, I’m going to have to hold the last three against Lance. Plus my ears get cold on their own.
Omer Asik? If the Pelicans had a dollar for every time someone said “Doesn’t Omer Asik seem likeable?” his contract would still sing pain.
I need another glass of water.
The only thing that makes hangovers go away is time. You wait, and then you wait, and eventually you’re going to feel right again.
There’s also hair of the dog.
For example, on September 22, 2016, the New Orleans Pelicans agreed to terms of The 8th Sacrement, Bobocop, Sacre Bleu.0. The Pelicans took in the majesty of the one and only Robert Sacre.
Sacre comes from the French word meaning “wow look at that guy dance on the sideline. I don’t get it, but I don’t want him to stop.” This is exactly what was needed, someone whose defining quality as a basketball player is that he seems fun to be around. He’s bringing the party back whether it’s a good idea or not, and at this point, anything is an improvement. Just make the pain stop.
At some point, Sacre’s contributions as a basketball player will have to be remembered. That can wait until tomorrow. For now, Robert Sacre may turn around the Pelicans fortunes. I mean, not as a winning basketball team. That’d be ridiculous. But he might make New Orleans a more fun place. New Orleans likes fun. New Orleans especially likes more fun.
Boy Meets World
By Brendon Kleen (@BrendonKleen14)
Since Anthony Davis has been in town, the New Orleans Pelicans have shied away from young talent like I shy away from home-made food from any kitchen but my mother’s. Pressure from elderly owner Tom Benson forced General Manager Dell Demps into win-now moves that ricocheted down the roster and ended with a grand total of one playoff appearance over the life of Anthony Davis’s first contract.
The focus has clearly shifted in 2016; armed with buckets of cap room and a high lottery pick in the NBA Draft, the Pelicans set out to change their team this summer. That began with the selection of senior sensation Buddy Hield of Oklahoma in June. Hield posted totals of 25.0 points and 5.7 rebounds per game in his final season at Oklahoma, winning the United States Basketball Writers Player of the Year and garnering just about as much national praise and attention as is possible for a college basketball player. He figures — in the short term — to shoot the lights out in the corner and try his best on defense. In the long-term, well who knows; so much of his future projection is based on adding defensive skill and taking advantage of his large frame in every facet of the game. We won’t know for a while.
Armed with the back-to-back 39th and 40th picks in the second round, the Pelicans worked the phones, eventually finding a trade partner at 33. That pick became Cheick Diallo, whom the Pelicans received drafts for (via the Los Angeles Clippers) in return for their second-rounders. Diallo chugged through an uncomfortable season at Kansas, featuring fluctuations in playing time and an unfortunate experiment with a mid-range jumper he wasn’t ready to shoot. Indeed, he has considerable skill as a rim-reaping presence on both sides of the ball. In an ideal world, he’s sucking the defense inward while Davis sucks it out, presenting a consistent matchup-buster defenses haven’t had to deal with in New Orleans since Tyson Chandler and David West played together. But that is likely years away, with Diallo simply lacking the basketball experience (only 200 minutes at the NCAA level).
However, the Pelicans’ other summer additions created a roster that will harness and insulate Buddy far better than it has in the past for disappointments like Austin Rivers.
Langston Galloway is an unknown quantity, but qualitatively figures to be an atomic bomb on the basketball court in the right defense-first role. If his shot can iron out its streakiness (35% across two hot-and-cold seasons), he’ll be a net positive. Solomon Hill is a little older than most of the guys mentioned here after four seasons each at the Arizona and professionally with the Indiana Pacers. He projects to fill the gaps in the Pelicans’ most versatile lineups, moving up a position to match up against power forwards or comfortably manning the three with a jack of all trades approach. This September, Tyreke Evans called him a “baby Ron Artest”; for better or worse, people.
E’Twaun Moore was second only to Hill in terms of guaranteed money received from the Pelicans, and gives them the perfect partner for second banana Jrue Holiday that they’ve never had. After trying both Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans in that role, the team now moves on to the former Bull, whose best skills are shooting and defense (sensing a pattern?), a combination that Evans and Gordon never quite mastered. A few interesting stats of note for Moore: he posted an astounding 70.6 effective field goal percentage on 40 shots attempted after only one dribble, and shot 45 percent on catch-and-shoot threes for the Bulls last season. Those shots will be there for Moore in an Alvin Gentry offense, whether Moore is playing on or off the ball.
And of course, rounding out the group of nestlings is the man. The uni-browed king himself, worthy of an introduction only Ralphie from A Christmas Story could think up. Anthony Davis isn’t a vulgar man, but he’ll have opponents spewing vulgarities for years to come. There’s not much left to say about Davis’s greatness at this point other than to outline how he can improve on an already-stellar career. Despite being billed as a generational defensive prospect out of Kentucky, Davis has failed to live up to that title in four NBA seasons. Even his 30.8 PER season was fueled largely by easy rebounds and volume scoring; Davis will need to become an even more efficient player and a more well-rounded defender to lead this (or any) team to greatness.
After years of disappointing performances by washed-up veterans, New Orleans has clearly re-focused its efforts on versatile, two-way youngsters who can bring the city a dominant new era of basketball. Many of these players are just as big a bet as those same veterans, but Demps has always been a gambling man. His job, and the patience of the city, may depend on the immediate development of these inexperienced players.