Sacramento Kings: My kingdom for some stability
The Step Back has been born from the aesthetics and traditions of the Hardwood Paroxysm Basketball Network. In the past, Hardwood Paroxysm has produced a massive stand-alone season preview. This year, that preview effort has been rolled up into the launch of The Step Back.
The Step Back’s writers and illustrators have prepared a hefty deep-dive into each team, built from multiple smaller sections. This year’s theme is television comedies and each section is named after some of our favorite sitcoms. For links to all 30 teams, as well as details about the focus of each section, check out our guide on how to read this preview.
Community
By Scott Rafferty (@crabdribbles)
At some point, the Sacramento Kings need to figure out what they’re doing with DeMarcus Cousins. The 2016-17 season is that point.
In theory, keeping Cousins around for as long as possible to build a competitive team around him would be a no-brainer, but his situation with the Kings is rather complicated. Since drafting Cousins in 2010, the franchise hasn’t won more than 33 games in a single season and they’ve cycled through five different head coaches. Cousins only has two years remaining on his contract, and it’s unlikely — albeit entirely possible for all we know — he will want to spend his prime playing for a team that has little-to-no identity.
That means the Kings need something to show for by the end of the 2016-17 season. Not necessarily 40 wins and one of the eight playoff seeds up for grabs in the Western Conference, although that sure would be nice, just progress and some sort of stability so they can make the most of having a terrifyingly dominant center while he is still around.
The other option is the Kings trade Cousins while his value is high and he’s still under contract. The Oklahoma City Thunder learned the hard way that betting on free agency can be a curse when Kevin Durant left them in the offseason for the Golden State Warriors. The Thunder can still put together a playoff contender without getting a return for Durant — one of the many fortunes of also drafting Russell Westbrook — but the Kings can’t afford to let Cousins walk for absolutely nothing in 2018 if he so chooses.
Which of those options the Kings settle on depends on a number of factors, but being in a position where there is a decision to be made is what matters. It starts with head coach Dave Joerger doing what the likes of George Karl and Tyrone Corbin couldn’t, followed by a concrete plan of how a roster full of big men can compete in an NBA dominated by small ball. From there, the Kings should be able to figure out what they’re doing with Cousins, because he’s the only thing currently standing between them and another full rebuild.
Friends
By Chris Barnewall (@ChrisBarnewall)
Picking on the Sacramento Kings for their issues is almost cliche at this point. They’re the NBA franchise that can’t stay out of their own way. It’s a constant disaster, and something that the fans of a city that fought so hard to keep their NBA franchise don’t deserve.
That said, wow is this team a mess from a chemistry standpoint. There is absolutely no continuity for this group to grab onto and build from. They’re on yet another new coach with Dave Joerger, and the way this franchise goes through coaches, who knows how long that will be the case.
DeMarcus Cousins has been pouting for a solid two years now, and from an outsider’s perspective it looks as if he’s given up any hope of the franchise turning it around before his contract ends. The biggest upset of the NBA season would be if a raid on Cousins house didn’t reveal a giant countdown clock to when his next free agency begins. Rudy Gay is in a similar situation, and has already informed the team he has no plans on staying around once his contract ends. Gay wants to get paid, and he wants to be in a more stable situation than this. Arron Afflalo is new. Matt Barnes is Matt Barnes. The long time veterans on this team want nothing to do with them anymore, and the new ones are too new to inspire any kind of cultural change.
This creates a horrible environment to develop youth in. Is Ben McLemore good? He might not be, but honestly it’s really difficult to tell when he’s had so many different coaches telling him so many different things. Young players are just trying to find playing time and figure out the league. There has been no consistent form of guidance with this team.
Then, Sacramento just invites potential problems for themselves. Ty Lawson hasn’t been good for a very long time. Again, Matt Barnes is here. There are millions of dollars in collected fines that explain why that could be a problem. Add in the hundred or so big men and point guards on the roster with a severe lack of wing depth, and the on court product doesn’t look like it’s going to be a source for much camaraderie. If the roster made sense from a basketball standpoint they would actually have a chance to win some games and create some chemistry that way, because winning does fix everything. That doesn’t feel like a viable path for this team.
What in the world are the Kings going to do with all of this? For most teams when they have a flow of new veterans, or young players, they look towards long-term pieces to provide a culture. How does that happen when the most vetted players may want nothing to do with their current situation? Their only source of hope at this point is Dave Joerger. A very good coach can install a culture, find players that will buy in, and get everything rolling for them by January. If Joerger is one of those coaches then there is hope for this roster. It’s not a talentless roster, just a weird one. However, that talent means nothing if they can’t get their chemistry together which is easier said than done.
I Love Lucy
By Chris Manning (@cwmwrites)
When it comes to the actual on-court product, DeMarcus Cousins is the one who creates chaos — both good and bad — for the Sacramento Kings. Inside, defenses have to react to how strong and dominant he is on the block; there is no one in the league with his ability to bully three defenders like its nothing. But he also does have tantrums and complain and sulk as the Kings struggle. On some level, he deserves a share of the blame for the coaching carousel in Sacramento.
For all of Cousins’ flaws and issues, he is only a symptom of the Kings’ larger issues. And while they aren’t totally responsible for the current state of affairs — things were bad before they fully took control — Vlade Divac and Vivek Ranadive are as much the agents of chaos as Cousins is.
For as long as they’ve been in charge, Divac and Ranadive have failed to really build something good around Cousins. Their current roster has a few impactful NBA players and prospects — Omri Casspi and Willie Cauley-Stein for starters — but is lacking in several areas. To start, there isn’t a dependable, NBA-quality point guard on the roster to feed Cousins the ball and run the offense. There also isn’t enough spacing to keep defenses from collapsing on Boogie every time he catches a pass inside. And these are just the base issues — the further you dig into their draft history and trades, the bleaker the picture gets.
To be fair, Sacramento has made a few decent moves. Getting Dave Joerger to coach could end up being a huge get, if he can connect with Cousins and make what useful pieces he does have work. And not trading Cousins already, before they really had to, was the right move too. The worst thing any NBA team can do is trade a star without a clear way to get one back.
But as Cousins gets closer to free agency — he’s two years away — his trade value is going to drop. And Cousins is at the point in his career where no one could really blame him for leaving when he hits the open market, or for trying to leverage his way out of Sacramento.
This puts all of the pressure on Divac and Ranadive. As every day passes, Cousins’ trade value drops every so slightly. And in the present, it’s hard to see how the current roster is capable of making some form of a playoff push and making the situation work for Boogie beyond what he’s contractually obligated to be around for.
It is up to Divac and Ranadive to restore order to the Kings. Their job this year and the next — or for however long they feel they can keep Cousins — is make the current situation an agent for the positive chaos Boogie creates every time he touches the ball.
Perfect Strangers
by Matt D’Anna (@hoop_nerd)
Ten Word Analysis: This lineup may never happen…but if it did!
TeamSPACE charts are based on mapped clusters of shot activity. These areas are affectionately called Hunting Grounds, because they are the areas on the court where a player hunts for shots — and successfully scores most often. TeamSPACE takes the Hunting Grounds of all five players in a lineup and puts them on the court together — because, you know, they have to share that physical space, and there is only one ball.
In the past, it was one color per player; which meant that blending colors represented overlapping spaces for shot activity. But this time around, these are not your ordinary TeamSPACE shot maps. Each lineup is analyzed in the aggregate — one color! — and that unit is compared that unit to the rest of the league. So you will see a persistent red layer on every chart, highlighting the league’s Hunting Grounds from last season. The most prolific locations should come as no surprise: the paint, the corners, most of the top of the arc, and a couple of dabs at the foul line and top of the key.
So…how were these lineups chosen for each team? In the past, it’s been about projecting the starting lineup, estimating the most used lineup, or even designing the “most favoritest” lineup. This year? It’s the these charts represent the “most interestingly feasible” lineups….what? That’s a loaded phrase, so let’s unpack it a bit.
The goal is to identify the collection of five players on a team that could potentially play together, and if they did, the offensive results could be glorious. Ideally these lineups aren’t too far-fetched, but also slightly off-kilter and confusing to an opposing defense. While this type of analysis is not conducive for assessing defense, somewhat reasonable decisions are attempted to be made. So while it’s tempting to just put all the best shooters together…how realistic is it (outside of Houston, at least)? And, full disclosure: I favor some stretch in my lineups. It not only provides plenty of high-octane potential, but getting stretchy is also on par with current league-wide trends.
Each TeamSPACE chart has a couple of other sitcom-related features:
Family Matters: You’ll notice a series of Jaleel White’s across half court. Each lineup is scored on a scale of 0-7 Steve Urkels for how well it matches league-wide trends. Remember, there’s seven league Hunting Grounds (right corner three; at the rim; left corner three; foul line/top of the key; right wing; middle 3pt; left wing). A lineup gains points for matching each area; it loses points for messy excess shot activity.
Odd Couple: “Most interestingly feasible” is obviously debatable, so in order to account for some of those decisions, you’ll see Oscar and Felix on each chart. Often, there are players that are in the lineup…and maybe/probably they should not be. They get the Oscar label. And, there are those players that are out of the lineup…and maybe/probably should be included. They are the Felix for their team.
And briefly, a word about data. These strange visual displays are based on last season’s shot data, weighted by made buckets — so rookies and season-long injuries are sadly excluded. This analysis is nothing without the help of Darryl Blackport, and the research materials available atBasketball-Reference and NBA.com. Further, these charts feature some of the best logo re-designs I could curate from the ol’ Information Superhighway, including Dribbble.com and Pinterest. I made none of the logos; I merely selected some of my favorites. Enjoy!
Freaks And Geeks
By Matt Femrite (@FattMemrite)
55.6. That was DeMarcus Cousins’ foul drawn percentage last season, an estimate of an opposing team’s fouls that were drawn by a specific player when he was on the floor. It’s basically a measurement of how large of a load a player carried when it came to foul-drawing, and 55.6 (or 9.2 drawn team fouls per 36 minutes) was a huge mark. Since 2006, only Dwight Howard in 2011 (56.9 percent) had a higher foul drawn percentage over a season, and Cousins has been on the rise since 2013, from 41.5 to 47.9, 51.3, and to 55.6 last season. Mario Chalmers, after his trade to Memphis, had the second-highest mark last season, minimum 1,000 minutes, but it was well below Cousins at 41 percent.
Cousins actually surpassed a similar player in physical stature in Shaquille O’Neal, who had a mark of 50.3 in 2007, though this statistic missed the prime of O’Neal’s career. They drew fouls in similar, overpowering ways such as being a handful on the block (Cousins was fifth in free throw frequency on post-ups, via NBA.com, minimum 50 possessions). But O’Neal was more of a force around the rim, a little bit taller, stronger, and athletic than Boogie. A decent portion of the latter player’s drawn fouls came from what was rare (and comedic) from Shaq, taking an opponent off the dribble from the perimeter. Sometimes that asked for a turnover, but it also invited slower defenders to commit reaching fouls Boogie himself has been prone to commit on the other side of the floor.
The foul-drawing from Cousins was one reason Sacramento stayed around league-average on offense last season. The Kings finished seventh in free throw rate and second in penalty time on offense, though those marks could’ve been higher had Cousins not missed 17 games. According to NBAwowy, Sacramento had a free throw rate of 32.4 percent when Cousins was on the floor, which would’ve ranked fourth overall in the league, and just 25.8 without him, a mark hard to endure when the Kings also finished 21st in three-point rate. In the last decade, only the Chauncey Billups-led Pistons, the early-2010s Bulls, and today’s Spurs consistently survived with below-average marks in free throw and three-point attempt rate. With Boogie on the floor, the Kings had an offensive rating of 107.8, which would’ve cracked the top 10 teams. Without him, they scored 104.8 points per 100 possessions, which would’ve placed in the bottom 10.
Boogie’s not a perfect center on offense (or defense). Among other things, he finished fifth in turnovers per 100 possessions at 5.3, and he could be a better overall teammate. Injuries and suspensions haven’t helped either, but the Kings struggled to find the right pieces and playing style to compliment a unique skill set, one better suited for the past when teams fouled more, posted up frequently, and shot less threes, but still good enough to be the focus of an entire offense.
Over the off-season, Sacramento lost the spacing (or in some cases, the illusion of spacing) from guys like Marco Belinelli, Seth Curry, and James Anderson, but picked up Anthony Tolliver, Matt Barnes, and Arron Afflalo. The stretchy options at the power forward slot in Rudy Gay and the underrated Omri Casspi are back, but there’s a ceiling on how much shooting Sacramento can have on the floor at one time thanks to the developments of Willie Cauley-Stein, Skal Labissiere, Georgios Papagiannis, and a reliable veteran in Kosta Koufos.
Regardless, if the three-point shooting comes around or if the turnovers are cut down, the Kings’ offense could wind up like what Dave Joerger had with Memphis Grizzlies. Thanks to Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph (and Mike Conley), the Grizzlies found a path to an average offense despite some of the lowest three-point rates over the last several years. Gasol and Randolph are two players Cousins could replicate by involving the majority of his possessions on the blocks or elbows. That would play into Cousins’ skillful passing, but also his physicality and the fouls he draws at an elite rate.
Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
Everybody Loves Raymond
By Chris Barnewall (@ChrisBarnewall)
Everybody loves Boogie. There is no player on the Sacramento Kings more likable than DeMarcus Cousins which is ironic considering he tries the hardest to make himself unlikable. Cousins pouts, doesn’t give 100 percent on every play, and is one of the reasons the Kings are forced to embrace dysfunction on a daily basis. Yet, we love him so much more for all of these qualities. His attitude is a breath of fresh air in a market where players are more focused on their #brands than ever. Cousins is himself and that is an endearing quality, even if it can get him into trouble sometimes. He wears his heart on his sleeve, and we will always be aware of what Cousins is thinking at at that very moment.
If Cousins’ personality draws us in, it’s his play on the floor that forces us to stay. The Kings have low-key been one of the more entertaining late-night League Pass options for the last few years, and Cousins a huge factor in why. The guy is one of the most dominant forces in the NBA. You haven’t lived as a fan until you’ve watched a Kings game where Cousins got lazy on defense, walked up the court in frustration, posted up his man and scored. It’s incredible television for all the wrong reasons, but it’s just so fun to watch and enjoy. He can score in bunches, and there’s always potential for a technical foul that’ll just tick him off even more. When Cousins plays angry that’s not necessarily good for him, or his team, but it’s definitely one of the more fun things to watch.
There are multiple times a season, usually in a close game, where Cousins decides that, if the Kings are going to lose it will not be his fault. He will do whatever is possible to drag them to a victory. He doesn’t slow down, he just scores at absurd rates with an efficiency so locked in it’s terrifying.
Cousins is difficult to cheer for at times because of the pouting and sour attitude, but that competitiveness in him is so endearing we can look past it. Add in his on-court talent and there are few players like him in the NBA. Perhaps this is the year things finally begin to turn around for the Kings. They have yet another new coach, and maybe the talent forms together to create a winning atmosphere that Cousins can enjoy. Let’s just hope he continues to wear his heart on his sleeve while doing so. It’s that much more fun to watch.
Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images
Boy Meets World
By Trevor Magnotti (@IllegalScreens)
Taking risks in the NBA Draft is inherent in to the process itself. The draft is a lottery of possibilities with each pick, and the imperfect sciences of scouting and team-building collide to produce a level of gambling akin to a casino slot machine. Even if you play the draft as safely as possible, you won’t hit every pick you make year-to-year.
The Sacramento Kings embraced that chaos to the highest degree in 2016. Unsatisfied with the talent available at the No. 8 pick in the draft, the Kings made a deal with the Phoenix Suns, trading the No. 8 pick for the No. 13 pick, the No. 28 pick, a future second-rounder, and European prospect Bogdan Bogdanovic. They also were able to swing a deal for the No. 22 pick, sending shooting guard Marco Belinelli to the Charlotte Hornets. The Kings turned the No. 8 pick and a journeyman wing into three first-round picks, a future second-round pick, and a former first-round pick stash option. Not bad.
However, the Kings’ risk-taking didn’t stop there. With each of those three picks, the Kings turned into the skid, selecting high-upside, high-risk prospects. At No. 13, the Kings picked massive Greek center Georgios Papagiannis, an incredibly raw prospect who was considered to have early second-round potential as a draft-and-stash option. At No. 22 came Syracuse guard Malachi Richardson, perhaps the most divisive prospect on the board due to his inconsistent, but incredible shot-making ability. At No. 28, the Kings grabbed Skal Labissiere, the incredibly talented, but still new to basketball, power forward from Kentucky.
If you had to pick the three most risky prospects headed into the draft, these three would have been high on many lists. Now Sacramento will try to balance all three of them, on a roster that is high on potential and low on fit, with two disgruntled star players and a front office that demands wins. That’s usually not a recipe for success for young draft prospects. Any rookie would have a hard time adjusting to the locker room the Kings have; these three could have a very difficult time developing here, and they need a lot to go right to succeed.
It’s not all doom for the Kings’ young prospects — after all, they have Willie Cauley-Stein back, and he should be able to provide a strong interior presence in his second year that compliments Cousins’ abilities. However, even his presence creates a problem for the Kings’ young bigs, as a concrete starting big pairing, plus Kosta Koufos and Anthony Tolliver, doesn’t leave many minutes for Papagiannis or Labissiere for the foreseeable future. Richardson should be better off when it comes to playing time but even that comes et the expense of a former top draft pick, Ben McLemore, slowly getting phased out of the Kings’ future.
The Kings were right to try to take some risks in the draft. However, these probably were not smart risks to take. So, Malachi. Georgios. Skal. Buckle up. You’re probably in for a rude NBA awakening, one that you do not need and didn’t ask for. Welcome to #KANGZ.