Five insanely prescient predictions for the 2016-17 NBA season

Oh man would I love to be a Superforecaster. We have learned from the recent book Superforecasting that certain people can predict the future uncommonly well. The Superforecaster uses their uniquely discerning, pliable mind to scrub away their own biases and see, soberly, how the future may unfold. Think of the fantasy and sportsbook implications.

My own personal quest to become a Superforecaster hit a bit of a snag when I thought that Superforecasting was kind of an uneven read and I didn’t make it out of the first chapter. (My apologies to the authors.) Undeterred, I still went to my mountaintop retreat, burned incense, and gazed within in order to see how the 2016-17 NBA season will truly look.

I’m not leaning back on the virtual locks here — no, the Nets will not make the playoffs. But I’m not couching these predictions in zaniness, either. I am only sharing the slightly-out-on-a-limb predictions that I know, with 100% internal certainty, will come to pass:

1. Dewayne Dedmon will earn over $25 million in free agency next summer.

It’s a free agency tradition that goes from Boban Marjanovic back to Rasho Nesterovic: the quiet, solid players of the NBA parlay their tenure with the Spurs into a future with more dollars (and fewer wins). A role player’s skill-set suddenly makes sense once it’s finally been showcased in Gregg Popovich’s world-beating system.

Dedmon earned $2 million, total, over the last three seasons with the Orlando Magic. This summer the Spurs signed him for $2.8 million, with a $3.02 million player option for next year. The market for Dedmon will multiply several times over after his upcoming 82-game showcase as the Spurs’ best defensive big man, perhaps even siphoning a few minutes away from offense-first Pau Gasol.

2. Every team will win at least 21 games.

This hasn’t happened for a decade, not since the 2006-07 season. (It almost happened in 2012-13.) Two teams finished below 21 wins last year — the Philadelphia 76ers (10) and Los Angeles Lakers (17) — and both teams definitely improved themselves, if marginally, in the draft and free agency. The Nets (21 wins last year) have too many veterans to truly experience a free-fall, and the Suns were talented enough to hit 23 wins in 2015-16 even though they burned a month or two trying to shove their coach out of town.

No team spent this summer tearing their team down in order to rebuild it up some future year. Get ready for a compacted middle of the standings and some wild fights for seeds No. 6-8.

3. DeAndre Jordan continues his streak of annually improving his points per game average.

Jordan’s consecutive games played streak is far from the most impressive streak he has contributed to the league. As a 20-year-old rookie in 2008-09, Jordan shared a riotous locker room with Marcus Camby, Baron Davis, Zach Randolph, Tim Thomas, and others while the Clippers stumbled to 19-63. Jordan averaged 4.3 points per game that year as a reserve and has improved on that mark in every single subsequent year, all the way up to 12.7 points per game in 2015-16.

Even if Jordan does not improve that infamous free throw percentage, he is still getting hacked more and more with each year, giving him more total attempts to rack up points. Jordan also led the Clippers in total minutes last year (in 77 games) even though he had one of the most capable backups in the league, the since-departed Cole Aldrich.

4. The Chicago Bulls will miss the playoffs.

While the on-court results have not been nearly as disastrous as they are in Sacramento, the Bulls are suddenly rivalling the Kings in terms of putting out the most bad vibes as an organization. And they’ve done so for years, now.

Of the eight teams who made the playoffs in the East last year, the only team who appears to be lottery-bound this year is, ironically, the Miami Heat. The competition for that final spot will be stiffer, I believe, than it’s been in years. With skilled new coaches in place for the Wizards, Magic, and Knicks, I believe that one of those three teams will find an identity quickly and enter a blissful honeymoon period, leapfrogging the infighting Bulls.

5. Joel Embiid is the Rookie of the Year.

The fact that Embiid is putting together legit two-way highlight reels in the preseason is flabbergasting. The game should be moving too fast for him, because he’s a rookie; and his game should be flaking rust everywhere, because the last time he played it was just 700 minutes two seasons ago. The dude only averaged 13 points a game in his senior year of high school. Embiid is truly a savant in how he feels and understands the game.

Although, yes, I do feel a knot of anxiety every time he leaves the ground. Those doggone feet.

We’ll check back in a few months, when all five of these predictions have become resoundingly true.

Home/NBA