Nylon Calculus: Early season schedule difficulty and reasons not to panic
The NBA season is here very, very close. Every fan is waiting impatiently to get the preseason over with and see some actual games that matter, games that will give the fans some information to draw conclusions about teams and players. There is in particular a need for information regarding the teams with new looks. Will the Houston Rockets really be all-offense, no-defense? How are the Chicago Bulls going to work? The Golden State Warriors will be a juggernaut, but will the team have the power of a thousand suns or just a few hundred?
The first couple of games of the season will give us some clues, but beware. The NBA schedule is not even, especially not in small stretches. Some teams will start out hot, boosted by an easy schedule, and some teams will look bad, in part because of their schedule.
To quantify this, I have looked at the first 10 games for every team to see how difficult their early slate is. Opponent strength comes from the projections made by some highly competent people here at Nylon Calculus, Nick Restifo and Andrew Johnson. I could not choose one over the other, as that would be like choosing your favorite child, so instead I have averaged their projections into one highly and hopefully plausible and possible (2H2P) projection.
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In calculating opponent strength I also adjust for home court and back-to-back. This gives the following measure of schedule difficulty for the first 10 games of the season.
The poor Denver Nuggets. They are an interesting team, but they have a brutal schedule to start the season. Seven out of 10 games are on the road and that includes a five-game road trip with two back-to-backs on the road. One of their three home games is against the Warriors.
On the other hand, the Indiana Pacers get the easiest start. Indiana only plays three teams that are projected to be better than 0.500 in the 2H2P projection — Boston, Charlotte, and Dallas — not exactly powerhouses.
Minnesota also starts out fairly easy and the people who have put the young team in the playoffs already this year, might look good early on. This projection is by no means foolproof but it does serve as a better baseline to review the teams against than nothing. If the Lakers start out great, then this gives us even more reason to be impressed by their start.