FanDuel NBA: Picks and Pivots October 26
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Looking back at Opening Night, the winner of the $1M GPP on FanDuel scored 373.5 points which is right in line with the projections we noted above.
Wednesday’s Main NBA preseason action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with ten games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA : Top Point Guards
Before we get into the top point guard picks, the question on this slate is are you rostering Russell Westbrook or not? For those of you new to DFS, the tried and true rule has been you make sure you have Westbrook in your lineup when Durant was out and with KD in Golden State, I expect gamers to be chomping at the bit to roster angry Westbrook!
The issue I see here is the price point – at $12,000, Westbrook would need to exceed 72 FanDuel points in order to pay off his hefty price tag. Westbrook has unreal stats in his career without Durant in the lineup, averaging 28 points, over 7 rebounds and over 8 assists per game but even assuming a slight uptick in those averages, you are looking at just over 50 points which would be 4x value. I am not going to tell you to fade Westbrook, but with a 10 game slate there may be better ways to utilize your $60k salary cap!
D’Angelo Russell ($6,500) Whether or not you plan on paying up for Westbrook, my top point per dollar play at point is the Lakers second year star, D’Angelo Russell who has an elite match-up on Wednesday night. The Lakers-Rockets game has a combined total of 220 which is by far the highest on the slate so we are going to want to maximize our exposure here. With Patrick Beverley out with an injury, the Rockets will have James Harden playing PG and for as great as Harden is offensively, he is equally as poor defensively!
Russell stepped his game to a new level in the preseason as the Lakers go to offensive option, averaging 17.8 points, 5.4 assists, 2.8 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game. This is an ideal spot to utilize Russell as he has massive upside and the ability to crush value at this price point.
Eric Bledsoe ($7,600) The second highest scoring game on the slate belongs to the Suns and the Kings in what should be a faced pace, high tempo offensive game. Looking back at last season, the Kings allowed one of the highest point totals (top 5) to opposing PG’s and with Ty Lawson expected to man the PG spot on Wednesday, this is a great spot for Bledsoe to attack the Kings for a big time fantasy night!
Prior to his injury last year, Bledsoe was averaging 20.4 points, 6.1 assists, 4 rebounds and 2 steals a night and now that he is back fully healthy he makes for an ideal target at a valuable price point.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards
Similar to my write-up on Russell Westbrook, the question at shooting guard is whether or not to roster James Harden. The issue here is the same as the price point at $11,200 requires 67 points to hit 6x value. Harden has an elite match-up against the Lakers so I expect he will be heavily targeted but if you look at this stats from last season, he averaged under 50 FanDuel points per game against the Lakers. As I said with Westbrook, I am not crazy enough to tell you not to play The Beard but a strategic fade at this price point is a viable strategy.
Victor Oladipo ($7,400) With ten games on the slate, I feel like going with a balanced strategy as opposed to a stars/scrubs is my preferred approach and part of the reason is the players we can get in the $6-7k range. Oladipo will take over as the #2 option in Oklahoma City with the departure of Kevin Durant and he gets a favorable match-up right off the bat against the Philadelphia 76ers.
The spread in this game is actually a very reasonable 7.5 so the blowout risk is not nearly as high you may think and I expect Oladipo’s ability to contribute across multiple categories to produce a high level DFS day. Last season, Oladipo averaged 16 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.9 assists while racking up 1.6 steals and his ability to rack up points across the board makes him a great high upside GPP target!
Devin Booker ($6,200) I am heading back top the Suns-Kings games to target one of the budding young stars in the NBA in Devin Booker. The Kings last season gave up the third most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards and I expect Booker to take advantage of this match-up.
Booker was the teams leading scorer in the preseason, averaging 19.6 points on a team high 15.6 shots per game so there is no question the offensive usage will be high for Booker.
Rudy Gay ($6,900) Small Forward not surprisingly is the toughest position to fill on this slate so my going in position is to target the two highest scoring games based off the initial Vegas totals.
Rudy Gay gets to face off with the Phoenix Suns who gave up the third most points to opposing Small Forwards last season and with a 212 combined team total, this is a great way to get exposure at a hard to fill position.
Trevor Ariza ($5,500) is another SF who allows you to get exposure to the highest scoring game on the slate and his ability to contribute across the stat sheet makes him a solid play in all formats at this price point. The Lakers gave up the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing SF last season .
The other option is to utilize the SF spot as your value punt spot and there are two cheap options you can slide in that will allow you to pay up for Westbrook or Harden.
T.J. Warren ($4,500) has won the starting SF spot for the Phoenix Suns and the Kings were one of the most favorable match-ups for opposing SF all of last season. Combine the DvP with the fact this is one of the highest projected totals on the slate and we can get very cheap exposure to a player with guaranteed minutes and in a starting role which is exactly what you want from your punt plays!
James Ennis ($4,000) With Chandler Parson still out with an injury, Ennis will slide into the starting SF role for the Grizzlies in a relatively neutral match-up with the Minnesota Timberwolves. When given the minutes, Ennis has proven to be a valuable contributor as last season with the Pelicans, in 31 minutes a game he averaged 15.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2 assists and 1.3 steals per game. At a near minimum price point, Ennis is another player with guaranteed minutes that gives you the salary savings you will need on this slate!
Nikola Jokic ($6,300) The power forward spot on FanDuel is relatively bizarre as you have Anthony Davis sitting alone over $10k and then everyone else in this $6k range! Jokic stands out as incredibly under-priced considering his role and his performance heading into the season and makes for one of my top plays on the slate.
Jokic enters the season as the starting power forward for the Nuggets and is one of the top nightly double-double threats in the league. Although the sample size is small, as a starting forward last season, Jokic averaged 15 points, 13 rebounds and 4.3 assists while racking up 1.7 combined steals/blocks. Jokic is one of my favorite targets heading into the season and I expect it will not be long before his price point skyrockets!
Serge Ibaka ($4,800) Ok I am sorry but this price point is bananas to me. Ibaka is coming off a preseason in which he averaged 16.8 points per game, 8.8 rebounds and 1 block over 31 minutes. As the starting power forward for the Magic, this seems like a great spot to take advantage of this bargain price, especially on a night where value will be so critical.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,800) The big KAT enters his second season as one of the top players in the league and in his first action of the season we can get an elite talent for under $9k which is a no-brainer for me!
Towns played only 23 minutes a game in the preseason and still managed to average 17.3 points, 9.3 boards and 1.8 assists so imagine what he will be able to do with a full complement of minutes! Minnesota takes on Memphis and opposing center Marc Gasol is expected to be on a minutes limit as he returns from a foot injury. Locking in Towns at this price point not only allows you elite upside but also gives you enough salary savings to pair him with Westbrook or Harden!