Atlanta bets on Dennis Schröder with contract extension

Dennis Schröder’s brand new, four-year, $70 million extension sounds like a lot for a player who has yet to be a full-time starter in the NBA. But as it stands, with the cap rise this summer, around $15 million a season is the new going rate for starters who aren’t max level players. Just this past summer, Bismack Biyombo, Evan Fournier and Evan Turner all signed deals that are virtually identical to the deal Schröder just signed.

The experience level is what makes Atlanta’s extension with him different. As Jeff Teague’s backup over the past few years, Schröder hasn’t ever really been in charge of the Hawks’ offense; when he came in the game, he offered a change of pace, not a new offensive foundation. As a starter, the ways he his different than Teague — he’s not as good of a shooter, but a better defender, etc. – are going to make themselves known in more pronounced ways. Those changes — along with losing Al Horford and signed Dwight Howard — are going to alter how Atlanta plays.

Because of the position he plays, a lot of the burden for making the change work falls on Schröder’s shoulders. The talent and tools are definitely there for him to become a clear starting-level point guard on a good team — and perhaps even in All-Star in time — but he hasn’t ever shown the complete package.

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While the Rajon Rondo comparisons are a bit off, Schröder has a Rondo-like tendency to hold the ball a bit too much as the offense moves around him. While he’s not an elite finisher by any means, he’s good enough if he wasn’t undermining himself too often by settling for mid-range jumpers. Defenses also sag off of him, daring him to shoot shots he really shouldn’t be taking at this point. For his career, he’s only a 32.4 percent three-point shooter and a 41.9 percent shooter from the field.

From that spot on the floor, teams are going to ignore him when the playoffs roll around. The current Hawks are going to function differently than they did the last two years, but spacing becomes an issue that wasn’t there before, when you make the types of changes at point guard and center that Atlanta did; $15 million for a point guard who can’t shoot seems like a lot when spacing is what has made your offense special.

The uncertainty of what Schröder will be also clouds any evaluation of this deal. He was set to become a restricted free agent this summer. If Atlanta had wanted to, they could have spent this year evaluating him and then paying him based on a full year as a starter, or letting him walk if he didn’t work.That could have meant paying him a max deal and/or risking a long, drawn out negotiation. For Schröder, he gets real money now — he’s only made $7.5 million to date in his career — and he’ll still be theoretically in line for two more big deals, provided he produces. This extension is a middle ground, a workable solution for both sides.

Look, Schröder could get better and it’s not like he’s a useless player. He has not always been engaged, but he’s an active, smart defender in a league littered with really good point guards. He’s also a really crafty driver who is quick enough to collapse defenses and that could help Atlanta’s possible spacing issues. He’s also quick and could help the Hawks go from 18th in points to possession to the top half in the league by pushing the ball and making the Hawks faster even if they aren’t necessarily as fluid in the half-court.

If he can be a good defender and distributor while improving as a shooter, $15 million could be a bargain for Atlanta. It’s also hard to see an organization as smart as Atlanta moving on from Teague — who was on an affordable contract and produced well for some the Hawks’ best years in recent memory — even if they weren’t convinced Schröder could be their guy.

In truth, this deal comes down to how good Schröder ends up being. It’s fine for now. The better we understand Schröder, the better we’ll understand this deal.

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