The NBA extension deadline for fourth-year players ended with a bang Monday, as Steven Adams, Victor Oladipo, Rudy Gobert, Gorgui Dieng and Cody Zeller signed deals that will have them pocketing a combined $406 million over the next four years. With Giannis Antetokounmpo, Dennis Schroder and C.J. McCollum having already reached agreements on extensions earlier this year, teams did well to ensure their 2013 draftees wouldn’t hit the restricted-free-agent market next summer.
The focus now turns to the star-studded 2014 draft class, whose players will become eligible for extensions once the July Moratorium lifts. Complicating matters is the looming new collective bargaining agreement, which could change the rules governing extensions and free-agent cap holds, thus incentivizing (or dis-incentivizing) teams to agree upon extensions before their former first-rounders can reach restricted free agency.
Barring radical changes from the new CBA, a handful of 2014 draftees appear to be locks for extensions, while others may need to prove their worthiness in 2016-17. Here’s a tiered look at who should be expecting a huge payday next fall and which players may be populating the 2018 restricted-free-agent class.
Take all of our money
Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves
Tom Thibodeau couldn’t Weird Science a more perfect fit for his system than Andrew Wiggins. The precocious Timberpup has all of the tools to become one of the league’s best two-way wings, especially under Thibodeau’s tutelage. Wiggins is a lackluster rebounder and hasn’t yet emerged as a prolific passer, but he’s capable of pouring in 25 points on one end while smothering opposing wings with his 7-0 wingspan on the other. If Thibs succeeds in developing Wiggins like he did Jimmy Butler during his days with the Chicago Bulls, the Kansas product will be worth every penny of the max deal he’s sure to sign next fall.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers aren’t beating around the bush: Joel Embiid is the linchpin of their franchise on both ends of the court. Even before Embiid made his regular-season debut, head coach Brett Brown dubbed him the “focal point both offensively and defensively,” comparing his potential two-way impact to Tim Duncan’s.
Though Embiid’s injury history may complicate extension negotiations — the big man suffered a stress fracture in his back during his one year in college and missed his first two professional seasons due to a navicular fracture in his right foot — the Sixers aren’t going to let the self-dubbed “Process” get away. Cooler heads will prevail as the deadline approaches, even if it means handing him a max deal.
Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic
Though the Orlando Magic remain infuriatingly committed to playing Aaron Gordon as a 3 rather than his natural position at the 4, the rangy forward should be a fixture of their young core for years to come. Head coach Frank Vogel had little choice but to shift Gordon down positions after general manager Rob Hennigan traded for Serge Ibaka and signed Bismack Biyombo this offseason, and to his credit, the move should help expand Gordon’s comfort zone (although the Paul George comparisons seem lofty). If the Arizona product does eventually morph into a George-esque player, handing him a max deal will be the biggest no-brainer in Hennigan’s tenure. If not, he’ll still be overwhelmingly favored to receive a sub-max extension next fall.
More likely than not
Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks
If Jabari Parker develops consistent 3-point range or becomes an above-average defender this season, he’ll belong in the previous category rather than this one. Until then, questions remain about his long-term fit alongside the positionless Giannis Antetokounmpo, who likewise struggles from beyond the 3-point arc. Despite those concerns, Parker has the upside of a 20-point-per-game scorer, so the Milwaukee Bucks aren’t likely to let him reach restricted free agency. They may have to hold their nose if he adamantly refuses to sign anything less than a max extension, though.
Julius Randle, Los Angeles Lakers
In mid-October, Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green raised eyebrows when he told Mark Medina of the Orange County Register that Julius Randle “has the potential to be better” than him. Though small-sample-size warnings abound, Randle has flashed a more versatile skill set in the first few games of the 2016-17 season after focusing primarily on scoring and rebounding as a sophomore. If his well-roundedness isn’t just an early-season fluke, the Los Angeles Lakers will likely lock him up as part of its future core alongside Brandon Ingram, D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson.
Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves
Much like Blake Griffin, Zach LaVine isn’t “just a dunker.” In fact, he’s emerging as a lethal complement to Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins in Minnesota, having raised his 3-point percentage from 34.1 percent as a rookie to 38.9 percent last season. With Thibodeau seemingly giving LaVine the green light from deep — he’s gone 11-of-22 on 3-point attempts through three games — he could develop into a prolific scorer who drills multiple long-range bombs each night. There’s little chance Minnesota lets him test the restricted-free-agent market.
Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
After signing Gobert to an extension, the Utah Jazz have some major financial decisions to make over the coming 12 months. Gordon Hayward is certain to decline his $16.7 million team option next summer, making him an unrestricted free agent, while Derrick Favors will become a UFA in 2018. If Hayward leaves, retaining Rodney Hood with an extension should be Utah’s top priority, as the Duke product has flashed enormous scoring upside over the past season and change. Since the Jazz figure to be capped out over the coming years, retaining their own talent is critical, increasing the likelihood of a Hood extension.
50-50
Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley are each set to become unrestricted free agents after the 2017-18 season, and both are due for a fat raise after being comically underpaid on their current contracts. Extension talks for Marcus Smart, therefore, will come down to general manager Danny Ainge’s long-term plans for Boston’s backcourt. If he decides to cash in on his treasure trove of assets and trades, say, Bradley, Brooklyn’s 2018 first-round pick and Jae Crowder for a superstar, a Smart extension becomes far more likely. Otherwise, it’s a true 50-50 proposition for now.
Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic
According to Chris Mannix of The Vertical, former Orlando Magic head coach Scott Skiles “wasn’t enamored with some of Orlando’s young talent, in particular Elfrid Payton,” which led in part to his abrupt resignation this past May. Hennigan gave a vote of confidence in Payton, however, when he traded a package including Victor Oladipo to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Serge Ibaka. It’s now up to the Louisiana-Lafayette product to justify that faith, as his lack of shooting range complicates Hennigan’s efforts to build a playoff-caliber roster. If Payton remains a low-efficiency 3-point shooter this season, Hennigan must weigh whether he’s Orlando’s floor general of the future or a sunk cost.
Clint Capela, Houston Rockets
According to ESPN.com’s Tim MacMahon, “Houston Rockets management repeatedly pushed for Clint Capela to get more playing time at the expense of Dwight Howard last season,” so it appears as though general manager Daryl Morey and team owner Leslie Alexander are already sold on the 22-year-old. If he doesn’t run away with the starting center gig this season, though — his primary competition is the 34-year-old corpse of Nene — it could raise questions about Capela’s long-term fit in Mike D’Antoni’s pace-and-space system. The likelihood of him receiving an extension will boil down to how he fares under D’Antoni and whether he falls out of favor with face-of-the-franchise James Harden.
Let’s see how you do this year
Dante Exum, Utah Jazz
Between posting a sub-40 percent shooting average as a rookie and missing his entire sophomore campaign after tearing his ACL, Dante Exum is firmly in “prove it” territory in 2016-17. His fate will likely come down to what happens with George Hill, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent after the season. If Hill leaves, Utah will have far more incentive to ink Exum to an extension, but if he re-signs, the Jazz may feel comfortable letting the Aussie floor general test the market as a RFA.
Doug McDermott, Chicago Bulls
Don’t look now, but Doug McDermott might be coming into his own as a scorer. Given the spacing concerns with the Chicago Bulls’ starting backcourt, head coach Fred Hoiberg needs some reliable 3-point shooters off the bench, and the aptly named McBuckets has been pouring in points through the first week of the 2016-17 campaign. If he builds upon his hot start, the Bulls may be incentivized to open extension negotiations next summer, but it’s too early to put him in the 50-50 category at the moment.
T.J. Warren, Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns are knee-deep in a youth movement, and T.J. Warren wants to join the party. The NC State product missed the final two months of the 2015-16 campaign after breaking his foot, but he’s hit the ground running this year, pouring in 21.3 points per game across Phoenix’s first four contests. P.J. Tucker will be an unrestricted free agent next summer, meaning Warren should maintain his grasp on the starting small forward gig, but a likely top-five pick could spell doom to his extension hopes if it brings Jayson Tatum or Josh Jackson into the fold.
Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets
Jusuf Nurkic seemingly fell into the doghouse of Denver Nuggets head coach Mike Malone for much of 2015-16, but the Bosnian Bear has quickly worked himself back into favor. A dominant preseason has carried over to the first week of the regular season, giving Denver a bruising frontcourt presence alongside Nikola Jokic, the darling of Basketball Twitter. Provided he stays healthy, Nurkic should work himself into the 50-50 category for extension odds.
Gary Harris, Denver Nuggets
If the Nuggets want to keep Gary Harris around long term, they sure do have a strange way of showing it. After spending two of their three first-round picks on Jamal Murray and Malik Beasley in June, Denver’s backcourt spots suddenly look overly crowded, especially with Will Barton signed through 2017-18. Harris will need to bounce back quickly from the groin strain he suffered during the preseason to have any chance of inking an extension next fall.
Kyle Anderson, San Antonio Spurs
Kyle Anderson doesn’t jump out as an obvious extension candidate, but San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich appears infatuated with him, telling reporters, “He’s got a good basketball head on him. He’s never going to score a whole lot, but he plays a good basketball game.” Slo-Mo may be the second coming of Boris Diaw in San Antonio — a player who fills in the gaps without lighting up the scoreboard. The Spurs will likely let him become a restricted free agent, but an impressive 2016-17 campaign could change that calculus.
Sorry, but no
Nik Stauskas, Philadelphia 76ers
Noah Vonleh, Portland Trail Blazers
Bruno Caboclo, Toronto Raptors
Shabazz Napier, Portland Trail Blazers
Josh Huestis, Oklahoma City Thunder
Can’t be extended
Dario Saric, Philadelphia 76ers (signed rookie contract this year)
Adreian Payne, Minnesota Timberwolves (option declined)
James Young, Boston Celtics (option declined)
Tyler Ennis, Houston Rockets (option declined)
Mitch McGary, Oklahoma City Thunder (waived)
Jordan Adams, Memphis Grizzlies (waived)
C.J. Wilcox, Orlando Magic (option declined)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Sacramento Kings (abroad)
P.J. Hairston, free agent (waived)