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Falcons at Buccaneers: Game preview, odds, prediction

By John Buhler

Dec 6, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) runs with the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Atlanta Falcons 23-19. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 6, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) runs with the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Atlanta Falcons 23-19. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football in Week 9. Here is a game preview, the betting odds, and a prediction.

Thursday Night Football in Week 9 features a pair of NFC South rivals. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host the Atlanta Falcons for an 8:25 p.m. ET kickoff at Raymond James Stadium. The NFL Network will have the Nov. 3 telecast.

Atlanta enters its Week 9 road date with the Buccaneers at 5-3. The Falcons lead the NFC South by 1.5 games over the Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints. Atlanta has one of the most explosive offenses in football and is slowly, but surely improving defensively. The Falcons have the look of an NFC Playoff team.

Tampa Bay fell in overtime to the Oakland Raiders in Week 9 to fall to 3-4 on the season. The Buccaneers struggle to play consistently in all three phases of the game. If the Buccaneers do beat the Falcons, they will have won four straight over their NFC South rival. Tampa Bay beat Atlanta in Week 7, 31-24 at the Georgia Dome.

Odds

Point Spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Moneylines: Atlanta -180, Tampa Bay +160

Over/Under: 51.5

According to OddsShark.com, the Buccaneers are getting 3.5 points at home from the visiting Falcons. The associated moneylines are as follows: Atlanta -180 and Tampa Bay +160. This game’s over/under comes in at 51.5.

Here are some betting trends to keep in mind with the Falcons: 1. Atlanta is 5-2 against the spread and straight up this season. 2. The Falcons have gone over in seven of their last eight games. 3. They are 5-0 against the spread and 4-1 straight up in their last five road games.

Here are the trends to know with regards to the Buccaneers: 1. Tampa Bay is 3-8 straight up and against the spread in its last 11 games. 2. The Buccaneers have gone over in seven of their last 10 games. 3. They are 0-5 straight up and against the spread in their last five home games.

The parlay for this game is pretty straight forward: swallow the 3.5 points and take the Falcons with the over. Here’s why:

Though both teams played in emotional games on Sunday, the potential letdown factor won’t rear its ugly head in this game for both teams. Tampa Bay is more likely to feel that because of the soul-crushing way it lost in overtime last week to the Raiders.

Atlanta is looking at this one on Thursday as a bit of a revenge game. Dirk Koetter has gone 3-0 against his former team since relocating to the Buccaneers organization in 2015. It’s only exacerbated by former Falcons head coach Mike Smith calling the shots with the Tampa Bay defense.

The Falcons are going to win this game decidedly for several reasons. Atlanta has an elite, well-rounded offense that will exploit Tampa Bay defensively. The Buccaneers are lousy at home. Atlanta has the more reliable kicking game. Matt Ryan is playing like an MVP, while Jameis Winston has largely regressed in year two.

However, the biggest differences from these two rivals’ previous meeting this season are Atlanta’s improving pass rush and Tampa Bay’s weakened rushing attack. Vic Beasley and Adrian Clayborn are playing well of late on the Falcons’ defensive line. Tampa Bay is leaning on former Falcon second-stringer Jacquizz Rodgers to pound the rock without Doug Martin or Charles Sims available.

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This one is not going to be close, as Atlanta moves to 6-3, while Tampa Bay falls to 3-5.

Pick: Falcons 34, Buccaneers 23

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