Who will overtake Kevin Garnett as the NBA’s all-time top earner?

To state something obvious: the NBA has not had a problem with cash flow for some time. Even though today’s contracts are liable to make us lifelong fans dizzy — lifelong fans who have made a hobby out of tossing around millions of dollars, in conversation — the player who has squeezed the most career salary out of the league started doing so way back in the nineties: Kevin Garnett.

On his way to having one of the few 21-season careers in league history, The Big Ticket pulled down a total of $326.3 million in NBA salary. After a modest rookie deal (three years, $4.6 million), Garnett started raking in the serious bucks at the time he hit the legal drinking age, getting signed to a six-year extension worth $120 million — a number that will still rattle your noggin two decades of inflation later. Another nine-digit extension kicked in after Garnett’s age-27 season, after he had been named to the All-Star team for the seventh of 15 times in his career. The per-year take-home dipped only slightly when Garnett moved to Boston for the most inspired ball of his career. He maintained an above-average salary on a handful of shorter deals all the way to the bitter end — salaries that Garnett earned, providing elite defense even in his 38 short games last year.

Right behind Garnett is Kobe Bryant, who clocked in at $323.3 million — probably a rounding error worth of difference between the two dudes. Kobe, yes, has more rings and would probably be picked before Garnett in a hypothetical time-machine game of all-timers. But by pulling in over $100 million in his last four, legacy-threatening seasons, Bryant both earned every dollar — other teams profited at the gate from that farewell tour, remember — and also kind of fluked into second place. For the sustainable way to make $300+ million, we’ll look to Garnett’s career.

There are three elements to Garnett’s career that seem absolutely essential to any active player who is going to break his record:

Start early

Garnett is proof positive that artificially deflated rookie contracts needn’t stop a player from eventually becoming team ownership potential. The first handful of seasons aren’t going to be immediately impressive — but that second contract, hopefully coming to you well before your 25th birthday, must be a doozy. Garnett had earned $125 million by the end of the ninth year in his career, at age 27. This is still a hugely impressive number today: Kevin Durant concluded his ninth NBA season last year, at age 27, with $105.6 million in salary. Even the Slim Reaper is behind pace.

Have a longevity-conducive style

Breaking Garnett’s record is going to require being something close to an All-Star player in your late thirties. It’s hard to keep that up if your game is Iverson-ian, all quickness and agility — the first things Father Time robs. Hard also if you are Stoudemire-ian, all leaping and sledgehammer dunks. For the last third of his career, Garnett was, really, one of the best rim protectors in the league, a role he held down with intelligence and awareness instead of athleticism and explosiveness. That’s how you earn in your thirties. Also important is maintaining good health — which is probably the main reason that Shaq was “limited” to $286.3 million.

Do not be a San Antonio Spur

Tim Duncan did play two fewer seasons than Garnett. Still, that doesn’t account for why The Big Fundamental is nearly nine figures behind The Big Ticket, at $236.3 million. Uh, yeah, talk about unselfishness. Let’s also remember that Kawhi Leonard is earning less than Ryan Anderson and Allen Crabbe this year.

Here is who will and will not end up breaking Garnett’s record. Check back in 15 years to see that all of my predictions have come true:

NOPE

There are no about-to-retire players who are threatening Garnett’s mark. Only eight players went into this season with even half of Garnett’s career earnings in the bank. Most of them are moments away from retirement, like Dirk Nowitzki ($216.6 million), Joe Johnson ($192.5 million), and Paul Pierce ($190.5 million). What’s surprising, though, is that there are some players who we probably still consider young who are already eliminated from contention. A partial list of the hundreds of NBA players who will retire with less dinero than KG, sorted by how much money they will have once their current salaries expire:

Carmelo Anthony

$255.2 million through 2019 — has player option for 2018-19

Anthony will be 35 with $80 million to make up to catch Garnett. This will be a hard gap to make up because by that time the Knicks will be a pile of rubble and Phil Jackson will have recently been chased out of town by a pitchfork-wielding mob. Anthony will get close but not quite, and will continue on his path of being more inspiring as a social activist than as a basketball player.

Mike Conley

$208.1 million through 2021 — has player option for 2020-21

It is awesome that, for this brief moment in time, Mike Conley is the recipient of the largest contract in NBA history. Alas, he was doomed by a relatively small second contract. When his mega-deal ends, Conley will be 34 and needing to make up more than $100 million on Garnett.

James Harden

$179.9 million through 2020 — has player option for 2019-20

Harden is one of the toughest calls of any player. I’m going to say no because I wonder, like Iverson, if he can hang on through those late thirties years. As Harden would probably tell me, though, those who mind don’t matter.

DeMar DeRozan

$177.4 million through 2021 — has player option for 2020-21

DeRozan faces the same issue as Conley — facing too steep a slope after that second deal.

Kevin Love

$171.2 million through 2020 — has player option for 2019-20

Believe it or not, Love is also in the same boat as Conley and DeRozan. His second contract, signed with Garnett’s very same Timberwolves, was four-years and $60.8 million.

Damian Lillard

$153.7 million through 2021

Lillard’s downfall is those pesky four years of college. At the end of his age-27 season (2017-18), Lillard will have banked about $70 million, well-behind Garnett’s $125 million at the same age.

Bradley Beal

$145.8 million through 2021

An average of 62 games played through his first four seasons? Beal, of all people, has everything aligned in his favor — except, it appears, the ability to take his career well beyond 15 seasons.

Kyrie Irving

$116.5 million through 2020

See: Iverson, Harden.

Stephen Curry

$56 million through 2017

Even though Curry is about to get some bonkers amount of money, he has already been effectively eliminated for the same reason as Conley, DeRozan, and Love. Damn those wobbly ankles.

YEP

It’s not like that Nope list is full of slouches. It’s full of MVP candidates, champions, eventual Hall of Famers. In addition to having that upper-echelon talent, the players who are situated to actually out-earn Garnett have also had the salary cap planets fortuitously align in their favor:

LeBron James

$269.5 million through 2019 — has player option for 2018-19

I do believe, in all sincerity, that James stands next to Curry as the most underpaid players in the league — even as he is getting paid $4.4 million more than the next-highest-paid players this season. However, this year actually marks the first time that James has been the highest-paid player in the league, and he wasn’t even the highest-paid player on his own team until Cleveland 2.0. (He was tied with Chris Bosh on the Heatles.)

In the summer of 2019, James will be 34 and, I believe, barely be slowing down in any visible way. From there it’s probably just another two or three years to bust Garnett’s record. Unless James wants to leave the game on top, MJ-style, his phenomenal conditioning will allow him to bust the record, with all those postseason minutes on top and everything.

Russell Westbrook

$161.7 million through 2019 — has player option for 2018-19

The “Individual Season” chapter of the record books has been on notice since last July. Things are going to get weird.

Kevin Durant

$159.9 million through 2018 — has player option for 2017-18

Even though I am less excited about the meme-ready Warriors than most people (for reasons elaborated here), there’s no way he doesn’t eventually get it done — as long as those feet are okay. Actually: it would be satisfying if he didn’t break the mark because he kept signing one-year deals to jump onto different championship contenders.

Anthony Davis

$150.3 million through 2021

Even though Davis lost all that money from not making the All-NBA team last season, he still has a big leg up on Garnett’s early-career earning pace. Davis’ team situation also looks a heck of a lot like Garnett’s once did in Minnesota — but it just doesn’t quite feel like Davis is full of all that same passionate loyalty about the Pelicans.

Andre Drummond

$137.8 million through 2021 – has player option for 2020-21

Drummond’s draft position and initial rookie contract is the only thing that’s keeping him from tying Davis. And who knows, Drummond has a player option and could make up a lot of the difference in 2020-21, when both men will be just 28. Despite the brutally obvious weakness at the free throw line, I still feel like this is going to happen because Drummond is learning, incredibly, as he goes. Those rebound numbers are something to look at now — and that will be the case even more so once Drummond is maneuvering around with veteran savvy.

Paul George

$101.6 million through 2019

George’s game is so readily complimentary with just about everybody that you can basically see that day when he unites with another superstar or two and, Ray Allen-style, helps that team win the championship. What also helps is that George started at college in his age-18 season, effectively putting him on the same career path as any one-and-done player. This dude is going to be around for a while.

Blake Griffin

$95.3 million through 2017 – not counting 2017-18 player option

Really: I’m saying Griffin will cross the threshold but not Lillard or Harden? That’s correct — although a lot of that has to do with Griffin’s phenomenal timing into next summer’s kinda sparse free agent class, when he will sign a contract that will absolutely flip your lid. Regardless of what colors Griffin is wearing 12 months from now, I think his game will age fantastically as he mellows out from cathartic dunker into a floor-stretcher who can also be a keen distributor from the post.

Karl-Anthony Towns

$25.66 million through 2019

There’s going to be more than one player out of the last four drafts who busts through Garnett’s mark — especially if somebody discovers a way to bubble-wrap Joel Embiid’s feet while he moves around at full speed. But there’s only one dude so far who you can say, with confidence, will be absolutely flush with money: KAT.

It certainly won’t hurt that Garnett will one day own the Timberwolves, and would be eager to snap a conference table or flip over a postgame spread while screaming about reasons that the team should pay his young pup.

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