DraftKings NBA Picks for November 3
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for November 3
Today is not like any other day. I half expect the world to have ended by the time most of you read this. The Cubs have won the World Series. What’s so special about that? Well, the last time that the Cubs won a World Championship, they beat Ty Cobb. Mark Twain was still alive. Theodore Roosevelt was president. Women couldn’t vote. “Take Me Out To The Ball Game” was written that year. You get the idea. No one alive remembers it. Think about the weight of that. It kind of make DraftKings seem trivial!
We all know it’s not. As my three year old nephew likes to say “basketball is life!” Maybe I will be recommending him in this column one day!
We are back down to five games tonight, cutting the player pool on DraftKings in half. Westbrook is back in action, along with a handful of other stars. Who is worth paying for? Who are the bargains that the price hasn’t adjusted to yet? Let’s see if we can find those and build a winning lineup!
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DraftKings is making one very important change for the 2016-2017 season. For some strange reason, they gave up their only advantage over FanDuel for NBA games. DraftKings decided to lock ALL games when the contest starts just as FanDuel does.
The big difference now between FanDuel and DraftKings is the lineups. FanDuel has one more slot, but you are confined to two of every position except center, where you get one. On DraftKings, you get a starting five plus a G, F, and UTIL. This is still an advantage over FanDuel because we can play two centers even though the roster is smaller!
Sound like fun? If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for a free entry into the Fantasy Football Millionaire contest. We have plenty of advice on the site to help you turn that free entry into a solid bankroll!
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($12,900): Westbrook “only” had 56 DraftKings points last night (the bum!), by far his lowest total of the season. That’s his floor. Fade him at your own risk. I am going to use him in one lineup, but go a different direction in the other.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,000): If you are waiting for Giannis to slow down, it may not happen anytime soon. His lowest output so far this year has been 44.5 DraftKings points against the Pistons. That is a floor of 5x value. If you elect to fade Westbrook on the second night of a back to back, Giannis is a very suitable plan B.
Honorable Mention:
Isaiah Thomas ($7,500): Thomas posted his first double-double of the season last night, and his stats had been very good even before that. His worst game still netted him 35.75 DraftKings points, which was still good for nearly 5x value. Last night he topped 50. You likely wont see that against a Cavs team that has stifled opponents on the perimeter, but 5x value still looks likely.
Elfrid Payton ($6,000): Payton has been a bargain hunter’s delight so far this year. Payton has been over 30 DraftKings points in three of the four games, and even topped 40 once. He has been no worse than 4x value so far. After an up and down rookie season, Payton seems to be thriving with more minutes this year.
Dark Horses:
Kris Dunn ($4,900): Dunn is still insanely cheap for what he does. Dunn picked up 33.5 DraftKings points in his first start, but the Grizzlies also sat Mike Conley. Then again, Dunn only played 29 minutes in the blowout win. Expect to see Dunn more tonight against what should be a tight game with the Nuggets. He should come close to 7x value. You can’t pass that up!
Matthew Dellavedova ($4,700): As long as the Bucks keep playing him 30 minutes a game, Dellavedova is a great DraftKings option. He has averaged 27.3 DraftKings points per game, which leaves him firmly at 6x value.
My pick: Dunn(PG), Dellavedova(G)
Best Bets:
Zach LaVine ($6,200): LaVine has had no less than 31.25 DraftKings points in a game yet this year. His price will catch up, but it isn’t there yet. He is a sure 5x value with his price this low.
Avery Bradley ($5,800): What sore shoulder? Bradley has been a monster on DraftKings so far this season. Bradley has his worst game of the season last night against the Bulls, and he still hit 5x value. That is someone I want on my team.
Honorable Mention:
Evan Fournier ($6,100): If you don’t fully trust Bradley’s shoulder, Fournier could be your other option. Aside from a dreadful shooting game against the Pistons, Fournier has been between 31 and 36 DraftKings points in every game, or between 5-6x value.
Dark Horses:
J.R. Smith ($4,300): Smith is almost entirely dependent on scoring, but he has picked up 31 points (54 DraftKings points) over his last two games. Tonight he will draw a Boston team that got lit up by Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade last night. Smith should drop another 15 or so points and be in the high 20’s for DraftKings, making him a great value.
Tony Snell ($3,400): Snell put up the third double-double of his four year career on Tuesday. There could be more where that came from. Jason Kidd likes the way Snell plays, so if the plays 30 minutes again, it will be hard for him to not reach at least 7x value.
My pick: LaVine(SG)
Best Bets:
Kevin Durant ($10,500): Durant’s former team comes to his new house. You don’t need me to rattle off any stats here. You know he’s going to come to play in this one. But for good measure, he is averaging 54.9 DraftKings points per game over the first four games.
Paul George ($8,400): Aside from an off game against the Bulls, George has been nearly on par with LeBron for $1,200 less. George has scored over 20 points in every game, and narrowly missed a double-double twice. He has scored more than 40 DraftKings points in every game except for the one against Chicago. Milwaukee is a solid team, but George shouldn’t have a big problem topping 40 again.
Honorable Mention:
LeBron James ($9,600): His all-around stats are outstanding, and James is a constant triple-double threat. He doesn’t regularly hit them like Westbrook does, but he is always right there. He showed in the opener against the Knicks that he can be a dominant force when needed. Will the Cavs need it tonight against Boston?
Rudy Gay ($6,500): Gay is a model of consistency that gets far too little recognition in the world of daily fantasy sports. When you have a guy who will get you a sure amount of points at a mid range price, he can be the key to winning you money. Gay is in a contract year, and gets an Orlando team that has had issues guarding the SF slot. Gay is in for another 35 DraftKings points at least.
Dark Horses:
Matt Barnes ($4,000): As Barnes showed on Tuesday, if his shot isn’t falling, he can hurt you. That said, he still plucked eight rebounds, and he is usually a reliable scorer on the second team. Barnes has been as high as 36 DraftKings points this year, and he has not played less than 23 minutes in a game. He will get his chances.
C.J Miles ($3,600): Miles was very good against the Lakers with Rodney Stuckey out. Stuckey will be out likely until the end of the month, so Miles should continue to see 20-25 minutes a night. He is mostly a shooter, but he is a very good one. He doesn’t miss much.
My pick: Gay(SF)
Best Bets:
Draymond Green ($7,800): How low of a risk is Green? He failed to reach double digits in any one category, including points, on Tuesday, but he still netted 40 DraftKings points. He does a little of everything, which makes him one of the least risks available. If you decide to pass on all three big ticket PF eligible guys, Green is a solid replacement.
Gorgui Dieng ($6,700): Dieng has not been held under 36 DraftKings points yet, and the only reason he was that low on Tuesday is because his team was ahead by a lot. Dieng is averaging 6x value. That shouldn’t change tonight against Denver.
Honorable Mention:
Myles Turner ($7,300): Turner struggled with his shot and fouls against the Lakers, which limited his effectiveness. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he has been performing well above his salary. I do prefer Dieng though because the Bucks have the athleticism to frustrate him.
Kevin Love ($7,100): So long as LeBron is in a sharing mood, Love should be able to keep up his scoring. He needs to rebound better to get the most out of what you pay for him, something he has not done in the last two games.
Dark Horse:
Amir Johnson ($3,900): Brad Stevens finally gave Johnson 30 minutes against the Bulls due to the absence of Al Horford. He responded with 47 DraftKings points. The Celtics seem committed to their youth up front, but I would be willing to bet that Amir gets some love tonight against Cleveland for his huge game last night. Will Horford out again, Johnson could have a good night, just don’t expect this big of a line against a good Cleveland defense.
My pick: Dieng(PF), Johnson(F)
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,600): The problem here is that Cousins needs 53 DraftKings points to reach 5x value. The only time he has done that was in the opener against the Spurs. So why is he up here? The Magic have been everything but against opposing centers. Cousins could feast on their interior, making him an intriguing play.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($7,900): The outstanding play of Gorgui Dieng has taken a chunk out of Towns’s production, but now that his price has fallen this low, Towns is approaching a place where he could finally reach 5x value.
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Vucevic ($6,400): Vucevic had a great preseason, and it has carried over into the regular season. He has averaged 37.6 DraftKings points per game, which is 6x value on average. The caveat here is that he has had one game under 30, but that was against the defending Champs, who seem to have an elite defense.
Greg Monroe ($5,400): Monroe has played just 18 minutes in each of the last two games for the Bucks, but he has 50.5 DraftKings points in those two games. His low usage rate has affected his price, but not really his production. Monroe is still a strong bet to flirt with 6x value.
Dark Horse:
Kosta Koufos ($3,400): His production is consistent whether he starts or comes off the bench. Koufos is averaging a shade above 5x value, but he has been closer to 6x over the last two games. The Magic aren’t particularly strong up front, so Koufos could be a sneaky play tonight if you are willing to take a risk.
My pick: Cousins(C), Vucevic(UTIL)
Next: FanDuel Picks For November 3
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, our DFS NHL picks, and plenty of NFL advice heading into your weekend. We will also have the college football picks against the spread. You don’t want to miss any of this!