Pacquiao vs Vargas: 5 keys to victory for Manny Pacquiao

Manny Pacquiao officially ends his brief retirement this Saturday when he faces WBO welterweight champion Jessie Vargas at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Although Pacquiao enters the bout as a significant favorite, he cannot afford to overlook Vargas.

The ultimate purpose of Manny Pacquiao’s return to boxing remains unclear, but it could be for any number of reasons. Perhaps Pacquiao (58-6-2, 38 KOs) simply wants an influx of cash and misses the attention that comes with being an active prizefighter, or maybe he’s actually motivated to use his bout against Jessie Vargas as a springboard to more marquee, legacy-enhancing opportunities.

Many fans wanted to see Pacquiao jump back into the fray against WBC/WBO 140-pound champion Terence Crawford, and for good reason. Crawford is a top-10 pound-for-pound fighter, and his style would gel with Pacquiao’s. A Crawford fight, though, is a massive risk.

Despite the fiasco that was Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Manny Pacquiao, there’s a cohort of people who want to see a return bout and hold out hope of a Mayweather comeback. While this was never a realistic option for Pacquiao’s November fight date, the spectre of Mayweather, unfortunately, still looms large.

When Jessie Vargas’ name was first mentioned as a potential opponent, fans and pundits collectively groaned. Now, Vargas (27-1, 10 KOs) is indeed a quality fighter with a solid amateur pedigree, but his claim to having earned the Pacquiao fight boils down to a thin resume with two standout results: nearly — but not quite — stopping Timothy Bradley Jr. in the final round of a fight he was clearly losing, and an excellent knockout win of contender and 2008 Olympian Sadam Ali.

With that, here’s how Manny Pacquiao produces the expected and beats Jessie Vargas.

5) Set a brisk early pace

Heading into his title fight against Sadam Ali, CompuBox numbers revealed that Jessie Vargas’ punch output reflected welterweight averages. On a per-round basis, Vargas throws 57.3 punches and lands 18.4; the numbers for a typical 147-pounder are 57.6 and 17.8, respectively. As such, Manny Pacquiao will want to take Vargas out of this comfort zone.

By setting a brisk early pace, Pacquiao will play to his strengths: combination punching and calculated aggression. Vargas has never been in a fight of this magnitude, so if Pacquiao is assertive from the opening bell he will accomplish one of two important things.

First, Pacquiao could force Vargas to up his punch output in an attempt to keep up with him, which will only create more openings for Pacquiao to land power shots. Of course, this outcome carries the danger of Pacquiao eating significant return fire, but he’s clearly the better boxer and mover, so he should be able to win most of the meaningful exchanges.

The second potential outcome is that Pacquiao taking Vargas into deep waters early drowns the young champion, which would be ideal for Pacquiao — but unfortunate for fans. Vargas may simply be unable to match Pacquiao’s offensive variety and output, and be handcuffed as a result. Either way, Manny Pacquiao needs to make Jessie Vargas feel that the’s entered uncharted — and frightening — territory.