Pacquiao vs Vargas: 5 keys to victory for Manny Pacquiao

2) Calculated aggression

Round six of the fourth fight between Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez can serve as a cautionary tale for what Pacquiao must avoid as he continues fighting well into the twilight of his boxing career. Pacquiao got knocked out because he recklessly pursued a stoppage after a scintillating round five, and he got dropped after lunging in with mere seconds left in the sixth stanza — a grave tactical error.

Manny Pacquiao is a far more intelligent fighter than he showed in that moment. But over the past few years, there has been much discussion about how Pacquiao hasn’t scored a stoppage since a 2009 TKO of Miguel Cotto. Some argue that Pacquiao has lost his edge, while others expect him to somehow revert to his old form. Both perspective lead to pressure.

Because Jessie Vargas is such a massive underdog, fans will be expecting something explosive from Pacquiao. What Pacquiao cannot do is get reckless and desperately seek a knockout. Indeed, Pacquiao should test Vargas early and see if the young champion can keep pace, and he should obviously seize the initiative if he hurts Vargas.

However, Pacquiao is now vulnerable enough where a regular dose of five-to-eight-punch combinations are a thing of the past. A more cerebral approach grounded in the wealth of Pacquiao’s experience is what will trouble Vargas most, and that — which includes the feints and angles already mentioned — is what will create the moments Pacquiao can capitalize on. Attempting a blitzing or quick bludgeoning actually works against Pacquiao at this stage.