DraftKings NBA Picks for November 4
We are back up to nine games tonight, which gives us one of the larger player pools of the week. The Warriors are in the second game of a back to back. Will it affect how they use their players? Should it affect how we build our DraftKings rosters?
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DraftKings is making one very important change for the 2016-2017 season. For some strange reason, they gave up their only advantage over FanDuel for NBA games. DraftKings decided to lock ALL games when the contest starts just as FanDuel does.
The big difference now between FanDuel and DraftKings is the lineups. FanDuel has one more slot, but you are confined to two of every position except center, where you get one. On DraftKings, you get a starting five plus a G, F, and UTIL. This is still an advantage over FanDuel because we can play two centers even though the roster is smaller!
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Best Bets:
Damian Lillard ($9,100): Lillard has missed out on 5x value in his last two games. It wasn’t a shock against The Warriors, but it was a little surprising against the Suns. At any rate, the Mavs were dominated by James Harden earlier in the week, and have had all kinds of trouble with opposing guards. Lillard is a strong bet to be back over 5x value tonight.
John Wall ($8,500): Wall racked up 60.25 DraftKings points on the Raptors Wednesday night, but no one noticed because of the Cubs. Atlanta will do a better job on him presumably, but Wall only needs 42.5 DraftKings points for 5x value. He has well overshadowed that in every game but the opener against Atlanta. That said, he still hit 40.
Honorable Mention:
Chris Paul ($8,600): The Grizzles did a number on the Pelicans’ backcourt last night, but Paul is an elite talent. Paul was one assist away from a triple-double against the Thunder. He and Griffin are starting to mesh together again after a bit of a slower start together. I wouldn’t expect another 50 DraftKings point outburst, but 5x value (43) is very possible.
Goran Dragic ($7,100): Dragic is off to a great start this year for the Heat. Tonight he gets a Toronto team that has been abused by opposing point guards. 6x value it not out of the realm of possibility tonight considering what Wall did to the Raps earlier this week.
Dark Horses:
Tim Frazier ($6,400): Frazier was kept under wraps by Memphis, but he should fare much better against the Suns. They are basketball’s version of the run-and-shoot offense. Frazier should see plenty of good looks and good passing lanes in this one.
Tyler Johnson ($4,600): Johnson has been playing good minutes alongside Dragic, and will also benefit from facing the Raptors. If he plays 30 minutes again like he has been, he is a lock for 6x value, and likely more.
My pick: Dragic(PG)
Best Bets:
DeMar DeRozan ($8,000): Can the Heat slow DeRozan down? No one has been able to yet. I am going to bet no. The only one that can slow DeRozan down is himself. It will likely happen in the middle of a game and without warning, but when his worst game is 42.25 DraftKings points, you almost have to play him for this price.
C.J. McCollum ($6,900): McCollum is mostly a shooter, and he will get a ton of open looks against Dallas. He is a bit of a risk in case he struggles with his shot, but his price is low enough that it doesn’t take one of his best games to reach 5x value.
Honorable Mention:
Klay Thompson ($6,300): The arrival of Durant has cut into his scoring some, but Thompson still gets plenty of looks at the basket. He has taken at least 13 shots in every game. He finally hit some threes last night against Oklahoma City. Thompson will get plenty of open looks against the Lakers as well.
George Hill ($6,200): Hill is also eligible at the point, which is valuable in some circumstances. Hill has shot the lights out early in the year. He is shooting 55% from the floor, and has not been under 29 DraftKings points this year. I would temper my expectations against the Spurs, but he is still a strong candidate for 5x value.
Dark Horses:
J.J. Barea ($4,800): Barea has played at least 27 minutes in every game, and has far eclipsed 5x value in every game except for Utah. That can be forgiven. He is getting good run, and teams have been able to get to the Blazers from the outside. Barea could be a really nice play tonight.
Sean Kilpatrick ($4,400): Kilpatrick lit up the Pistons on Wednesday, and has been getting good run in all games so far. Kilpatrick posted a double-double in 28 minutes against Detroit. It is looking more and more like Kilpatrick is the best option for the Nets, so we will see how he does against the Bulls. I’m not expecting a lot, but he only needs 22 DraftKings points to reach 5x value. He should be able to get that.
My pick: Hill(SG), Barea(G)
Best Bets:
Kevin Durant ($10,100): Durant torched his former team last night. The best part is that he got plenty of rest as this game was out of hand early. Durant has been a monster on the glass and on the scoreboard, so he really hasn’t lost any value since he switched teams. He likely will be the highest scorer of the night.
Kawhi Leonard ($8,300): If you are looking to fade Durant, Leonard is a must play. He may be even if you don’t fade Durant. Leonard put up 47.25 DraftKings points on the Jazz on Tuesday. Not much has changed in three days. Just the venue. He should still be good for at least 5x value.
Honorable Mention:
T.J. Warren ($6,300): Warren has been lighting up the scoreboard all season, topping 40 DraftKings points in all but one game. The Pelicans are beat up on the perimeter, so expect another big night from Warren at a bargain basement price.
Justise Winslow ($5,600): Winslow does enough besides score that he should be able to get you around 5x value even if his shot isn’t falling. You shouldn’t have to worry about that much tonight against the Raptors. He should see plenty of open shots.
Dark Horses:
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($5,400): MKG took more shots in the opener (18) than he has in the three games since (14), but he still is a really good rebounder and will get his share of steals. That gives him a solid floor, and as he showed in the opener, there are times when he can give you a lot more. He could tonight against the Nets as well.
Otto Porter ($4,800): It has been Porter that has been the offensive force for the Wizards. Porter sank 11 of 13 shots on Wednesday. He will be hard-pressed to do that against the Hawks, but 5x value is all but a certainty. He has 23 rebounds in three games.
My pick: Leonard(SF), Warren(F), Porter(UTIL)
Best Bets:
Draymond Green ($7,800): Green has put up between 35 and 40 DraftKings points in each of the last four games, which means he is right around 5x value. He should have no problem reaching that against the Lakers tonight.
Anthony Davis ($10,900): Davis was just 3-13 from the floor in a disastrous outing against the Grizzlies earlier this week, but he should bounce back some against the Suns. The fact remains that Davis doesn’t have a whole lot of help on this team right now, so teams are going to key on him, making him a bit of a risk at this price. That said, the matchups for Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge are not good ones.
Honorable Mention:
Julius Randle ($6,100): Randle held his own against the solid interiors of Indiana and Atlanta. He get a more friendly matchup against the Warriors tonight, and he only needs 30.5 DraftKings points to make value. To put this in perspective, Domatas Sabonis was 6-12 from the floor last night against the Warriors.
Taj Gibson ($5,700): Gibson lacks the upside that most DFS players look for, but he is a constant 5.3 to 6x value. I will take that any day. He should get that without a problem against the Knicks.
Dark Horse:
Nikola Mirotic ($5,500): Mirotic has nailed seven threes over his last two games, and seems to be heating up. He has the upside that Gibson lacks, but the Bulls could decide to use both of them on the floor a lot against the Knicks and former teammate Joakim Noah. Both of them could be nice value plays tonight.
Frank Kaminsky ($4,100): Kaminsky is getting a solid 25 minutes per game with Roy Hibbert out, and is doing well with his chances. Frank the Tank has put up 5x value in both of his games this season, and should have no problem picking that up against the Nets tonight.
My pick: Gibson(PF)
Best Bets:
Hassan Whiteside ($8,400): Whiteside made me look like a fool on Tuesday because he played almost the entire night in foul trouble, which limited his minutes and production. I don’t hold grudges though. Not when Whiteside gets to take on an offensive-minded center and overall weak interior of the Raptors tonight.
Dwight Howard ($7,700): Howard has been a force around the rim for the Hawks, posting a double-double in all but one game. In his defense though, he only played 19 minutes against the 76ers because the team didn’t need him. Other than that, he has played more than 30 minutes and put up more than 40 DraftKings points in every game.
Honorable Mention:
Marc Gasol ($6,700): How safe of a pick is Gasol? Well, he was a miserable 3-18 from the floor against the Pelicans on Tuesday, but he still racked up 39.75 DraftKings points. He still hit 6x value while only hitting three shots. He may be the safest player on the board tonight.
Marcin Gortat ($5,900): Gortat is not a flashy player, but he is one of the more consistent plays around. Gortat has hit at least 5.5x value in every game except for when he had to tangle with Dwight Howard. And who does he get tonight? Dwight Howard. I would be that he doesn’t struggle as much this time around, but don’t expect 5.5x value either. He should be right around 5.
Dark Horse:
Alex Len ($4,000): Len has seen his minutes increase over the last few games to a point where he is in the running for your DraftKings roster. He put up a huge line against the Blazers on Wednesday. That should lead to more chances against the Pelicans tonight, though Tyson Chandler is still starting.
My pick: Gasol(C)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, our DFS NHL picks, and plenty of NFL advice heading into your weekend. We will also have the college football picks against the spread. You don’t want to miss any of this!