DraftKings NFL Picks: Week 9 Top Plays

DraftKings NFL Picks: Week 9 Top Plays

DraftKings NFL Picks: Week 9 Top Plays is a column that finds the players who are in the best situation to do well that week based primarily off opportunity and match up. You’ll get an insight into the mind of a consistently profitable DFS player and give yourself the best chance at hitting it big on the week’s slate!

I had to take a week off from my DraftKings NFL picks column last week due to work ramping up at school, but I hope you were as profitable as I was last week! Before I start in this week’s slate, I’d also like to give a shoutout to our Fantasy CPR team for killing NBA so far this season. If you like money, start reading the material we put out here for fantasy basketball!

This week’s NFL slate will be interesting for several reasons. Injury situations around the league are leaving a lot of important questions unanswered, but there is potential for major value to open up as the week goes on. The Colts/Packers and Saints/Niners games highlight the slate for fantasy purposes, but there are a lot of options for fantasy potential, making this a great week for GPPs as well. Let’s dig in!

DraftKings NFL Picks: Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers ($7,800): The Green Bay backfield is a mess. Eddie Lacy‘s on the IR, James Starks is out and Ty Montgomery may not play again this week, leaving Aaron Ripkowski, Don Jackson, and Knile Davis to carry the load. Until Starks returns, expect the Packers to lean on the arm of Aaron Rodgers heavily. Rodgers has 94 passing attempts in his last two games, and he’ll likely get Randall Cobb back this week in a prime match-up vs. Indianapolis.

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The Colts have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, which is understandable considering they play at one of the league’s fastest paces. Vontae Davis should shadow Jordy Nelson, but Darius Butler and Patrick Robinson are both juicy match-ups for Randall Cobb and Davante Adams. This game has the highest over/under of any on the slate, and game flow is the only concern for A-Rod as the Packers are 7.5 point favorites.

Josh McCown ($5,400): Yes, you read that right. I’m suggesting that, if you need to spend down at quarterback you should look to the Cleveland Browns. McCown returned from injury last week and was by no means eased back into action as he threw the ball 49 times. The Browns’ incompetence actually benefits McCown because it means they’re almost always playing catch up. The Browns

are calling pass plays 66.5% of the time, which puts them among the league leaders in that category. With Corey Coleman back this week, McCown will have even more weapons to work with.

Dallas ranks 17th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, but they’ll be without Morris Claiborne, who’s been arguably their most valuable corner this season. The Browns are 7.5 point underdogs, but they’re still projected to score over 20 points, so Vegas thinks 3 touchdowns is reasonable this week. At just $5,400, McCown is almost a lock to hit value and even has some upside.

Others I Like: Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Colin Kaepernick, Philip Rivers, Dak Prescott, Cam Newton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Wentz

DraftKings NFL Picks: Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,900): The Cowboys have the second highest team total on the slate with 28, meaning Vegas expects them to score 4 touchdowns against a very bad Cleveland defense. Elliott has been nearly unstoppable, finishing with under 20 fantasy points just once since Week 3. Cleveland ranks 24th at stopping the run, so expect Zeke to run all over them after tough match-ups against Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Green Bay the last 3 weeks.

SideLion Report

With game flow in his favor, Elliott should see over 25 carries this week to go along with some work in the passing game (he has 4 targets in each of his last 3 games). He doesn’t come cheap at $7,900, but this week he seems to have the highest floor/ceiling combination of anyone.

Matt Forte ($6,500): After a stretch where we were unsure if Forte was really the bell cow in New York, last week left us with no such doubts as he carried the ball 25 times compared to just 6 for Bilal Powell. He’s also been getting the goal line work for the Jets with 4 touchdowns in his last 2 games. With Ryan Fitzpatrick struggling, expect the Jets to go to the ground more than normal, which is already 12th in the league (41.36% of plays are run).

I think nearly every week I’ve written this article, I’ve recommended taking whichever running back is playing the Dolphins. They run a lot of Wide 9 defense, which leaves them weak in the middle. Although Miami is listed as 3.5 point favorites, this game should stay close, giving Forte four quarters of opportunity to produce.

Charcandrick West ($4,400): Not only does Charcandrick West have the coolest first name in the NFL (sorry Ha-Ha Clinton Dix), but he’s also an elite value play this week on DraftKings! Jamaal Charles is on the IR and Spencer Ware won’t play this week, leaving West as the undisputed lead back. The Chiefs are already a run heavy team, but with Nick Foles starting this week in place of Alex Smith, they may run even more.

The Jaguars also tend to funnel teams into the run because they have an above average pass defense and below average run D. Opponents are running the ball 44.51% of the time against Jacksonville, which is good for 5th most in the league. With the Chiefs depleted passing game, there’s no doubt the Jags will stack the box against the run, but for the volume West is going to get and his salary, it’s hard to fade him, at least for cash games.

Others I Like: Demarco Murray, Devontae Booker, Le’Veon Bell, Theo Riddick, Darren Sproles, Melvin Gordon

DraftKings NFL Picks: Wide Receivers

Antonio Brown ($8,900): Ben Roethlisberger is expected to return without much for limitation this week, which makes Brown a top option, regardless of match-up. He’s only finished with less than 20 fantasy points twice this season, so he’s worth paying up for. However, Brown is just $8,900 this week, and while that still makes him the most expensive wide out on the board, it’s way too cheap for someone who’s usually priced near $10,000.

Betsided

Although Brown is match up-proof, the Ravens are not going to have many weapons to slow him down with. Jimmy Smith will get the most time against Brown on the left side, where AB lines up on 48% of his snaps. Smith has been exploitable all season and is long removed from his 2014 form. Brown won’t be low-owned, but he’s a prime option if you’re spending up at receiver.

Randall Cobb ($6,600): Cobb (unsurprisingly) didn’t play in last week’s game against the Falcons, but I believe he’ll pick up right where he left off before the injury. We already talked about how the Packers will be forced to pass nearly every play, and Cobb is one of the biggest beneficiaries. Before the injury, he had 26 targets in two games. If Ty Montgomery doesn’t play, Cobb could even see some time in the backfield, which would give him potential for 15 touches, a ridiculous number for a wide out.

With Vontae Davis shadowing Jordy Nelson, Cobb is all of a sudden the top option in this offense. He’ll play most of his snaps against Darius Butler in the slot, which is a very winnable match-up. Butler has been battling injuries all year, and was never really a great corner before that either. As long as Indianapolis can keep this game close, Cobb should easily hit value at just $6,600.

Donte Moncrief ($5,800): Moncrief returned from injury last week, and was by no means eased back into things as he got a team-leading 9 targets, including a touchdown. T.Y. Hilton left the game with a hamstring injury and will return this week, but don’t let that scare you away. In the one complete game they’ve played together, Moncrief still managed 6 catches for 64 yards and a touchdown. Moncrief is only getting healthier, so expect his production to keep going upwards.

The match-up with the Packers is a phenomenal one for Moncrief. The Colts line Moncrief up all over the field, but he’ll see the majority of his snaps lined up opposite Ladarius Gunter on the left side. In reality, it doesn’t matter who the Packers stick on Moncrief, because without Sam Shields and Damarious Randall, Green Bay doesn’t have any corners truly capable of shutting down the Colts’ receiving weapons.

Mike Wallace ($5,600): Steve Smith Sr. is unlikely to play on Sunday, and if he does, there will likely be limitations. This leaves the door wide open for Wallace to absorb targets and be the clear WR1 for Joe Flacco. In the last 4 weeks, Wallace has gotten 10, 11, 9, and 13 targets. That many targets for a downfield threat are gold for fantasy purposes. Wallace has put up good value in these games, and this is without scoring a touchdown. I could see regression hitting this week, and if Wallace does find pay dirt, a monster fantasy day is likely.

The Steelers defense is one of the biggest passing funnels in the league. Teams pass the ball 63.8% of the game against them, which is one of the highest percentages in the league. With Ben Roethlisberger back, the Ravens should be playing catch up, so Wallace could be in line for even more targets. Also, the Pittsburgh safeties are below average, so there’s a good chance that Wallace can get behind their defense for a big play.

Others I Like: T.Y. Hilton, Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Ty Montgomery, Michael Thomas, Dez Bryant, Cole Beasley, Corey Coleman, Terrelle Pryor, Tyrell Williams, Kelvin Benjamin, Tavon Austin, Kenny Britt, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Brandon Marshall, Jarvis Landry, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Doug Baldwin, Jordan Matthews, Odell Beckham Jr.

DraftKings NFL Picks: Tight Ends

Greg Olsen ($6,200): Olsen is coming off a disappointing performance against Arizona in which he only got 3 targets, which was good for just one catch. However, don’t let that take you off Olsen this week. In the games leading up to Week 8, Olsen had at least 7 targets in every one of them, including 3 in double-digits. The Cardinals are tough on tight ends, so the matchup was what hurt him, not a change in scheme.

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The Rams have one of the quickest offensive lines in football and use it by blitzing often. With the increased pressure that Newton is likely to face in this game, he is likely to revert back to checking down to Olsen. The Panthers are projected to score 3 touchdowns and a field goal, and I think Olsen has a good chance to be involved in that scoring. Because of last week’s scoring, people could be off Olsen, making him a great low owned GPP play.

Dennis Pitta ($3,800): Aside from Mike Wallace, Dennis Pitta is the other main beneficiary of the Steve Smith Sr. injury. In his last three games, Pitta has gotten 8, 10 and 10 targets. He has one of the biggest roles on his team’s offense of all the tight ends in the league, accounting for 12.42% of the Ravens’ offense. He only has 4 red zone targets this year, but one has to believe that’ll change when we look at the other options Flacco has to throw to around the goal line.

The Steelers funnel the pass, and not only do they funnel teams into passing, but they funnel teams into passing to tight ends. Their safeties and linebackers are below average in coverage, and tight ends have tended to eat them alive. Currently, the Steelers rank 20th in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. Pitta is almost a lock to reach value this week at just $3,800.

Others I Like: Gary Barnidge, Delanie Walker, Antonio Gates, Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham, Ladarius Green, Kyle Rudolph

DraftKings NFL Picks: Defenses

Carolina Panthers ($3,400): I don’t know what Jeff Fisher is doing with this Rams’ offense, and I’m not entirely sure Jeff Fisher knows what he’s doing with it either. Case Keenum has been a dumpster fire this season, and teams are able to just stack the box against Todd Gurley. Carolina has had a disappointing season, but this looks like a good matchup to turn that around. If nothing else, the Panthers might have the safest defense on the slate this week, but with Case Keenum throwing passes, there’s always upside.

Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,300): If you need a punt option at defense, the Jags look like the best option. Nick Foles is starting in place of Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles and Spencer Ware are both out with injury, so I don’t see the Chiefs possessing the most potent offense. The Jags have struggled defensively this season, but much of that can be attributed to the putrid performance of the offense. They have talent, and this could be the week that it starts to come together for them.

Others I Like: Vikings, Chiefs, Seahawks, Dolphins, Cowboys, Jets

Next: FanDuel NFL: Quarterbacks Week 9

Best of luck this week in all your NFL action!