Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 9 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 368.9 a night which means we have needed 6.14x value to win big!
Friday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with nine games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guards
Tim Frazier ($5,500) Looking over the Friday Night slate the one game that stands out the most to me is the Pelicans and Suns as they have the second highest team total (215) and a 1.5 point spread which means the key players should get significant minutes!
So far this season the Suns have given up the second most fantasy points to opposing PG’s (56.94) of any team in the league and with a high scoring game on tap, rolling back our favorite DFS value PG in Tim Frazier is our first plug and play!
Frazier has averaged 30+ FD points so far this season and has 40+ points in 3 of his 5 starts which shows you the upside he is capable of in the right match-up. Frazier is coming off a big time dud in his last game out with only 7.2 FD points so the recency bias may play a role here and allow us to get Frazier at lower than expected ownership.
Eric Bledsoe ($7,900) On the other side of this match-up, I love this spot for Bledsoe who continues to be priced at a very reasonable level considering his role as the leader of the Suns offense.
Bledsoe is able to contribute across the board, averaging 17.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game for 32.64 FD points a contest. In one of the highest scoring games of the night, I love the idea of stacking the two point guards in what should be an up-tempo game that stays close throughout!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards
DeMar DeRozan ($8,500) Throughout this season I have been steady on the Fade DeRozan train as I typically do not look to spend up on scoring dependent options in DFS but I may need to rethink how I view DeRozan.
So far this season, DeRozan is averaging 46.2 FD points per game which is over 14 points highers than the next closest SG on the slate. What has been most impressive is the usage DeRozan is exhibiting so far this season, as he has put up a 38.5 usage rate which is second in the NBA behind Russell Westbrook!
DeRozan is averaging 36.3 points per game which is driving the vast majority of his FanDuel scoring but he is also delivering 5.3 rebound a game to push his totals consistently into the 40-50 point range. Although the match-up with Miami is not ideal, there is no SG on the slate that is producing at this level and for under $9k we can roster an elite talent.
Sean Kilpatrick ($4,700) Kilpatrick has been a favorite DFS value play for me so far this season and with the news that Jeremy Lin will be out, this opens up a tremendous opportunity for Kilpatrick. Isiah Whitehead may get the “start” as the Nets PG at a similar price point but Kilpatrick has already displayed higher upside and allows you to fill the tough 2nd SG position on FanDuel.
Kilpatrick is coming off his first double-double and a monster 41.5 FanDuel performance in his last start and we should expect Kilpatrick to be one of the key play makers for the Nets offense without Lin on the floor. The upside here is very high as his last performance showed and I will look to utilize the Nets back court of Kilpatrick and Whitehead as top value options on this slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forwards
Jimmy Butler ($7,700) No team in the NBA is giving up more points to opposing SF than the New York Knicks and with Jimmy Butler coming to down priced under $8k, this is a great play in all formats on Friday.
Butler has averaged a very steady 33.8 FD points per game this season on the new look Bulls and is leading the team in usage at 24.5%. Butler is a steady multi-category contributor who is still managing to attempt over 14 shots a game so I see Butler as I solid cash game option and the match-up with the Knicks gives him GPP upside on Friday!
T.J. Warren ($5,900) This price continues to be too low considering Warren is averaging 34.4 FD points per game, nearly a $2k discount on Jimmy Butler who is averaging 33.8 FD points this season!
The Suns are projected to score 104.8 points against the Pelicans and will see the projected pace increase which makes slotting Warren in at SF one of the best value plays on the board. Warren has exceeded 40 points in 2 of his 5 games so far this season as a result of his increased scoring to compliment his already strong all around statistical game. Lock in Warren tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forwards and Center
Anthony Davis ($11,200) The Brow is the top priced player and top performing player on the slate averaging 57.7 FD points per game so far this season. The decision to roster Davis is an interesting one on Friday night as he is the only player priced above $10k and has failed to eclipse 30 points in 2 of his last 3 games.
The recency bias may lead to some looking to fade him but we have seen what is capable of doing on any given night and with the Pelicans projected to score the 4th most points on the night in a pace up game, this is a spot where AD could go off!
The volatility is real here so this feels like a night where you plug-in Davis in one/some lineups and play the fade in other GPP lineups so you hedge your bet a bit. There is easily enough value on the slate with guys like Frazier, Kilpatrick and Warren to allow you to pair AD up with other stars so I would make sure you have exposure here but look to balance it across multiple lineups.
Frank Kaminsky ($4,000) The Hornets get to take on the Nets on Friday and with Roy Hibbert already ruled out, we should see extended minutes again for Kaminsky. Frank the Tank has played 24.5 minutes in his last two games and has put up 20.4 FD points and gets to face a depleted Nets team that will have trouble keeping this game close.
I was surprised with Jeremy Lin out to only see this spread at 6.5 so maybe Vegas sees this game staying close, but Kaminsky’s role is essentially game flow proof and I see him getting extended run in this game where the Nets have given up the 4th most points to opposing PF’s.
Alex Len ($4,900) If you are looking to pay down at center so you can fit in The Brow, Len is an intriguing cost saving option for the Suns. Len has put up at least 20 points in 4 of his 5 games and is coming off a 32.7 point performance in his last game in only 21 minutes.
Len would need a similar output to hit 6x value so there is obvious risk here but he gives you guaranteed minutes and a well-rounded fantasy game for a near minimum price point!