DraftKings NBA Picks for November 5
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for November 5
About half the league is in action with seven games tonight, which gives us a nice sized player pool. The Hawks are on the end of a back-to-back, so look out for resting players. Do we dare play any of them in our DraftKings lineups?
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DraftKings is making one very important change for the 2016-2017 season. For some strange reason, they gave up their only advantage over FanDuel for NBA games. DraftKings decided to lock ALL games when the contest starts just as FanDuel does.
The big difference now between FanDuel and DraftKings is the lineups. FanDuel has one more slot, but you are confined to two of every position except center, where you get one. On DraftKings, you get a starting five plus a G, F, and UTIL. This is still an advantage over FanDuel because we can play two centers even though the roster is smaller!
Sound like fun? If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for a free entry into the Fantasy Football Millionaire contest. We have plenty of advice on the site to help you turn that free entry into a solid bankroll!
Best Bets:
James Harden ($11,600): Harden has abused everyone so far this year. He is averaging 62 DraftKings points per game, while not being held under 45. He also has 144.25 DraftKings points over his last two games. Atlanta will probably hold him out of the 70’s, but I would bet he is at least at 50.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,500): His low mark this year was 44.5 DraftKings points. Giannis is on quite a run right now, and is a solid play in all formats. He has been over 50 DraftKings points in his last two games, and is a constant threat for 50 at all times.
Honorable Mention:
Chris Paul ($8,100): Paul shredded Memphis last night with 27 points, 11 assists, six steals, two blocks, and four rebounds. With John Wall resting tonight, Paul is the clear-cut best option for those of us not wanting to spend big. The Spurs have had some trouble in the perimeter since Tony Parker isn’t the player he once was. With Aldridge and Gasol clogging the middle, Paul could be forced into a big scoring game again.
Kyrie Irving ($7,600): James and Love have been the headliners in Cleveland so far, but Irving has quietly put up an average of 39 DraftKings points per game so far this year. That is 5.5x value. He should have little problem reaching that against the Sixers, even if he rests in the fourth quarter of a blowout.
Dark Horses:
Sergio Rodriguez ($5,300): Rodriguez has been one of the best cheap plays so far this year. He has not had below 22 DraftKings points, and is the unquestioned starter until Jerryd Bayless is healthy. His ceiling seems to be 35 DraftKings points, but there is nothing wrong with that for this price.
Aaron Brooks ($3,000): Brooks has been right at 5x value in the two games he has played so far. He is cheap, so don’t expect 20 DraftKings points unless someone gets hurt, but he is a scorer when on the floor. You can do much worse.
My pick: Harden(PG), Rodriguez(UTIL)
Best Bets:
Dwyane Wade ($6,300): Wade was on fire last night against the Knicks. That kind of explosiveness at this price is hard to find. Who knows if it carries over to tonight or not, but the Bulls played the Pacers last week, and Wade ended up with 27.75 DraftKings points. That puts him right at 5x value.
Evan Fournier ($6,100): Fournier was on fire against the Kings on Thursday. Tonight he gets a Washington team that has given up a lot of fantasy points to SG’s. Expect Fournier to be comfortably over 30 DraftKings points for the third straight game.
Honorable Mention:
Eric Gordon ($5,600): Gordon has been playing consistent minutes alongside James Harden, and putting up consistent production. He has averaged 27.75 DraftKings points so far this year, leaving him right at 5x value.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,900): KCP has quietly posted over 30 DraftKings points in each of his last three games. Now he gets a Denver team that was torched on the perimeter by Zach LaVine on Thursday night. He is a lock for 6x value, which is a rare thing.
Dark Horses:
Tim Hardaway Jr ($3,600): Hardaway does little more than score, which makes him a big risk. In the four games this season, he has scored over 20 points in two of them. The other two? He has 12 points combined. So do you feel lucky?
Malcolm Brogdon ($3,500): The Bucks were a perfect landing spot for the former Virginia star. Brogdon is a very polished defensive player, a quality coveted by Milwaukee. He has played 24 minutes in each of the last two games, and racked up 60.5 DraftKings points in that span. He is a fantastic bargain right now.
My pick: Caldwell-Pope(SG), Brogdon(G)
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($9,700): The King has not scored under 40 DraftKings points so far this year, and has flirted with 60 twice. He doesn’t have the high ceiling that he once had, so his chances of 6x value are pretty slim at this price. However, he is a constant threat to hit 5x. Just be aware that he could see extended rest if this game turns into a blowout, which is likely.
Kawhi Leonard ($8,800): This is the second game of a back to back set for the Spurs, so there is a chance that this could be Kawhi and the best take on the Clippers. At any rate, Leonard has been immune to the veteran rest in back to backs so far. That will likely continue, but check the lineup to make sure. Surprisingly enough, Leonard picked up his first double-double of the season last night. That hasn’t stopped him from bring a monster thus far in DraftKings though. He is averaging 48 DK points per game, or 5.4x value.
Honorable Mention:
Rudy Gay ($6,800): Of course, the night I laud Gay for being so consistent, he drops a 23 DraftKings point dud against the Magic. The going could be similarly slow against a pretty good Bucks team, but they aren’t as strong against the SF as they were last year because of the loss of Khris Middleton.
Tobias Harris ($6,200): Harris has provided a lot of bang for the buck in DraftKings this year. He has averaged 33.6 DraftKings points per game, keeping him a constant 5.2x value. Denver isn’t a strong defensive team, so expect another strong outing from Harris.
Dark Horses:
Marcus Morris ($5,700): Morris has scored over 20 points in each of the last two games. He has emerged as the guy who is helping replace Reggie Jackson‘s scoring output. He is also a solid rebounder, so Morris should provide solid value in any given game, especially at this price.
C.J. Miles ($3,900): Miles continues to get around 25 minutes a game with Rodney Stuckey sidelined. He only picked up 5x value against the Bulls on October 29 when his shot wasn’t falling. He has been at at least 5.5x in every other game. Miles is a very good value play to you can afford a star.
My pick: Leonard(SF), Harris(PF), Miles(F)
Best Bets:
Blake Griffin ($7,500): Griffin is one rebound shy of posting a double-double in every game this season. His field goal percentage is a few points below his career average, so once he gets that back up, he will be back to elite value. Right now, he is still providing very solid value. Griffin is averaging 42.9 DraftKings points per game.
Kevin Love ($7,400): Love has been a force all season with Cleveland playing very well as a team. The only team to hold Love under 35 DraftKings points was the Magic, who have proven to be one of the better defensive teams around. My only issue with Love is that this could be a blowout, limiting his ceiling, but at this price, he is far less of a risk than his teammates.
Honorable Mention:
Myles Turner ($7,100): Consistency has been a problem for Turner, who has seen his DraftKings points totals decrease in every game so far. That said, he put up 33.5 against the Bulls last week. If he can do that again, he is a decent value.
Serge Ibaka ($5,600): After a slow start to his Orlando career, Ibaka has picked it up lately with 82.5 DraftKings points over his last three games. That makes him a solid 5x value, just be aware he is playing against a solid Washington front. The saving grace for Ibaka is that most of his stats are defense based.
Dark Horse:
Dario Saric ($4,700): Saric couldn’t buy a bucket in his first few games, but now he seems to be getting more comfortable in the NBA. Saric has picked up 28.25 and 26.75 DraftKings points respectively in his last two games. That is a fantastic value for under $5,000.
Jon Leuer ($4,000): Leuer has been the first off the bench for the Pistons in every game so far. He has responded with a 21 DraftKings points per game average. That leaves him a shade above 5x value.
My pick: N/A
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,200): Cousins has ramped up his production lately. Why? He stayed out of foul trouble. In the games he has dominated this year, he has had three or fewer fouls. In the ones he has not, he has had 44 or less DraftKings points. Of course, it’s hard to predict when Cousins will get in foul trouble of not, making him a volatile play at a high price.
Dwight Howard ($8,000): Ho-hum, Howard was a dominant force again last night. It’s old news this year. Tonight he will face stiffer competition against Houston, but he will want to play well against a team that didn’t use him to his full potential last year. I expect Howard above 40 DraftKings points tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Andre Drummond ($7,700): Drummond had a horrid night against the Nets on Wednesday. The good news for us is that it drops his price ahead of another tasty matchup against the Nuggets. Perhaps the most concerning think about his clunker against the Nets was that he only hauled in six rebounds in 25 minutes. I expect Drummond to bounce back in a big way tonight.
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,500): The Denver frontcourt is crowded, but so far Nurkic has been able to keep up his good performances. The inconsistent play of Nikola Jokic and the unwillingness of the Nuggets to use Kenneth Faried all but assures Nurkic of a solid foundation.
Dark Horses:
Greg Monroe ($5,700): Monroe was a beast against the Pacers on Thursday. He picked up 16 points and 16 rebounds in only 26 minutes. If he can get that kind of workload consistently, Monroe may be the best value on DraftKings until his price adjusts.
Tristan Thompson ($4,900): Thompson had a big game against Boston on Thursday, but he had to knock down six of seven shots to reach his scoring potential. The fact remains that Thompson is an afterthought on the offensive end, but he has had double digit rebounds in every game. That gives him a solid 4.5x floor with the potential for what we saw on Thursday.
My pick: Monroe(C)
Next: FanDuel NBA Picks November 5
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, our DFS NHL picks, and plenty of NFL advice heading into your weekend. We will also have the college football picks against the spread. You don’t want to miss any of this!