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FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots November 5

By Brian Tulloch

November 3, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) shoots a technical foul shot as Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) looks on during the second quarter at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
November 3, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) shoots a technical foul shot as Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) looks on during the second quarter at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /
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Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup! 

The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.

One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.

A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.

Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!

To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.

This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.

Over the first 10 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 367.5 a night which means we have needed 6.1x value to win big!

Saturday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 6:00PM EST with eight games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!

FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guards

Russell Westbrook ($11,800) The Saturday night player pool on FanDuel is very interesting as we have two players priced over $11k and all the rest under $10k which sets up an interesting roster construction from a stars/scrubs approach.

Westbrook is one of the few players in DFS where if I see him on the slate, I click his name and try to work a roster around him. Tonight is no different and you will see as we walk through the picks that we have enough value already known to build a talented and complete roster to supplement his upside.

Westbrook is averaging 58.7 FD points per game (highest on the slate) and is averaging 34.2 points, 10 assists and 9.6 rebounds per game. He is coming off back to back “down” games where he put up 45.7 and 42.2 points. There is no safer cash game PG and the upside here is GPP winning every time he takes the floor. Just lock in Russ tonight and I would only recommend a strategic fade in large field GPP’s where you have multiple entries.

Kris Dunn ($4,900) One of the advantages of playing DFS consistently is that you can walk into slates targeting players you have used in recent days with knowledge you have already obtained. After slotting Westbrook into my lineup, I immediately clicked on Minnesota hoping that FanDuel had not raised Dunn’s price too much.

Well friends, FanDuel has kept Dunn’s price at $4.9k which makes him a lock and load cash game play and perfect partner with Westbrook. Dunn has averaged 27.65 FD points per game as the starter which exceeds 5.6x value at this price point and he remains one of the best value plays on the board.

Dunn will likely be highly owned(30%+ on Thursday) so I can see the same strategic fade approach in large field GPP’s but the foundation of Westbrook and Dunn gives you an incredibly high floor and a ceiling that could far exceed 6x value. This combination will be in the vast majority of my lineups on Saturday!

FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,700) As I mentioned in the open, there are only two players priced above $10k on FanDuel tonight but they are the two players that you have to start any serious roster construction with and with enough value, a Westbrook/Harden combination will likely out score any duo you can find in the NBA!

Start your rosters tonight with Westbrook/Dunn/Harden and you still have over $5,200 per player to build your lineup around!

Harden is averaging 56.6 FD points per game and has eclipsed the 60 point mark in 3 of his 5 contests so far this season. The Rockets – Atlanta have the highest combined team total (219) on the night and with the Hawks coming off a game Friday night, this should be a spot for Harden to exploit. Start your rosters tonight with Westbrook/Dunn/Harden and you still have over $5,200 per player to build your lineup around!

Bradley Beal ($5,300) The early injury news that opens up some serious value for us on Saturday night is that John Wall will sit for the Wizards on the tail end of a back to back. Wall leads the team with a massive 33% usage rate so there will be a significant void to fill and the Wizards complimentary stars sit at their usual price points but will  be tasked with carrying significantly more of the offensive workload.

Beal is one of my favorite targets on the board as the sheer volume of opportunities should be off the charts on Saturday night. Beal is already averaging 14.5 shots per game and is second on the team in usage behind Wall so without the Wizards star in the lineup this should be a great spot for Beal to break out!

FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forwards

Wilson Chandler ($4,900) With the news that Will Barton and Gary Harris will miss another game on Saturday we should expect to see Chandler’s role in the Nuggets offense increase as it did on Thursday.

Chandler has played 30 minutes+ in 3 of his 4 games this year and last game without Harris/Barton, Chandler racked up 19 points and 6 rebounds for 26.2 FanDuel points. At this price point, with a similar output Chandler would exceed 5.3x value as he did on Thursday and makes for a safe cash game salary saver with clear 6x upside!

Tony Snell ($3,800) I am going back to the well with Snell (get it?) after two straight games playing massive minutes at a near minimum price point. Snell has played 33 and 29 minutes in his last two games and is averaging 23.6 FD points which exceeds 6.2x value at this price point.

Snell is one of the best value plays on the board with his guaranteed minutes and his recent production and I love the idea of a “double-punt” at SF where I can lock in 5-6x value and allow me to spend up for the top end stars on this slate.

FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forwards and Center

Gorgui Dieng ($6,100) After three straight games with 35+ FD points, Dieng had a tough game on Thursday as he struggled with fouls and ended the night with only 7.8 FD points. Recency bias is a great thing to exploit in DFS and I expect owners who got burned to look in other directions but this is a great spot to stay on Dieng.

Dieng remains locked into major minutes for the Wolves having played 34-35 minutes a game in his first three and even with foul trouble was able to play 28 on Thursday. Dieng is averaging 11.3 points, 9.3 boards, 2.0 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.3 steals in 32.5 minutes per game on the season and at this price point is a great building block around the high-end stars!

Markieff Morris ($5,500) Heading back to the Wizards, I love the idea of pairing Beal and Morris together as I expect they will carry the majority of the offensive load for Washington without John Wall. Morris is averaging over 30 minutes a game and has two 35+ FD performances which make him a great upside play in a game where we can expect him to shoulder much of the load left by Wall’s 33% usage sitting on the bench!

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,000) Centers against Detroit is a spot I immediately look on every slate and considering the Pistons just gave up 34 and 11 to Brook Lopez, I expect this to be a great spot for Nurkic and the Nuggets!

Nurkic has been a stud this year, averaging 35.8 FD points per game this season which is just a shade behind Dwight Howard and Karl-Anthony Towns but he sits over $2k lower in price than those guys. From a point per dollar perspective this is one of my favorite plays as he allows you to easily build around your Harden/Westbrook core with a high upside center!

Next: DraftKings NBA Picks November 5

Best of luck on Saturday night in the NBA and we will see you back here for Sunday’s NBA Picks and Pivots!