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Sprint Cup AAA Texas 500 at Texas: Preview and prediction

By Ted Fleming

Sep 30, 2016; Dover, DE, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Ryan Blaney (21) waits for qualifying to begin for the Citizen Soldier 400 at Dover International Speedway. NASCAR cancels the session due to weather conditions. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 30, 2016; Dover, DE, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Ryan Blaney (21) waits for qualifying to begin for the Citizen Soldier 400 at Dover International Speedway. NASCAR cancels the session due to weather conditions. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /
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The AAA Texas 500 is the next to last chance for a driver to advance into the Championship Round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup and with Jimmie Johnson already locked in that leaves seven to fight it out for the remaining three slots.

With the smallest track on the NASCAR circuit at Martinsville in their rear-view mirror, the Sprint Cup Series moves to a place with a little more room to maneuver at Texas Motor Speedway for the AAA Texas 500 on Sunday afternoon.

When the field takes the checkered flag around 5:00 p.m. ET, one driver from Joe Gibbs Racing will likely see his championship dreams come to an end although with one event left in this final segment of the Chase, a win could save a season when they head to Phoenix next weekend. All four JGR cars advanced to the Round of 8, but with Jimmie Johnson winning a week ago, there are only three spots left for the final event of the season at Homestead-Miami on Nov. 20.

Sunday’s field is set with non-Chase driver Austin Dillon on the pole. Those who are still Chase eligible will line up like this:

  • Joey Logano – 2nd
  • Kevin Harvick – 3rd
  • Matt Kenseth – 7th
  • Carl Edwards – 9th
  • Kurt Busch – 10th
  • Denny Hamlin – 17th
  • Jimmie Johnson – 19th
  • Kyle Busch – 24th

There is a slight chance of sprinkles on Sunday and could cause some minor delays in the action although there is nothing to suggest the race will be postponed or shortened.

TMS is one of the newer tracks hosting its first sanctioned race on April 5, 1997 when Mark Martin won a Nationwide Series event and a day later Jeff Burton captured the first ever Sprint Cup race at the 1.5 mile quad oval.

Top 10 Driver Ratings (Career) at Texas:
Jimmie Johnson……….. 107.8
Matt Kenseth…………… 104.9
Kyle Busch……………….. 102.9
Carl Edwards……………… 97.6
Greg Biffle………………….. 96.4
Chase Elliott………………. 94.9
Tony Stewart……………… 94.3
Jeff Gordon………………… 93.5
Dale Earnhardt Jr………. 93.2
Martin Truex Jr ………….. 91.7

Next: Best NASCAR Championship Seasons

WHAT TO LOOK FOR:
Actor Dennis Quaid is the AAA Texas 500 Grand Marshal while Texas Rangers manager Jeff Banister will be the Honorary Pace Car Driver.

TRACK INFO:
Location – Fort Worth, Texas
Capacity: 128,000 (Permanent)
Track: 1.5 mile quad oval
Race Record: Greg Biffle, 160.577 mph (April 2012)

CHASE BREAKDOWN:
Segment 1 – Chicagoland (COMPLETED), New Hampshire (COMPLETED), Dover (COMPLETED)
Segment 2 – Charlotte (COMPLETED), Kansas (COMPLETED), Talladega (COMPLETED)
Segment 3 – Martinsville (COMPLETED), Texas, Phoenix
Segment 4 – Homestand-Miami Speedway

PREDICTION:
With nothing to lose after his win at Martinsville, Jimmie Johnson has moved to the favorite to win the championship in two weeks, however, there is no reason for the Hendrick Motorsports driver to lay it all on the line knowing he is already locked in to make a run for his seventh title. One driver that was eliminated from the Chase would like to have something to build on for 2017 and that is his teammate: Chase Elliott.

LONGSHOT:
Richard Childress Racing has gone a long time between wins and Austin Dillon has positioned himself to end the drought by winning the pole. Unfortunately, RCR will have to wait at least another week because this driver has been close without getting a cigar and this could be his time to get his first Cup win: Ryan Blaney.

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