Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 11 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 365.2 a night which means we have needed 6.1x value to win big!
Sunday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 6:00PM EST with four games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guards
First off, you will notice the Sunday slate start times are a bit staggered as we have a lone 12PM EST start time game and another at 3:30PM EST. My biggest concern with playing the all-day slate is that we have a lock 6 hours before the main games kick-off and that is too much lineup risk to account for if players end up sitting therefore I will look to target the main slate only.
Isaiah Thomas ($8,100) At the point guard position there is one player who will be locked into my lineups across all formats as IT2 has one of the best pure match-ups on the board. The Celtics come into the day with the second highest team total on the board at 109.3 points and Thomas gets to face the Nuggets who are dead last in DvP against opposing PG’s.
Thomas is a great cash game foundation as he has scored no fewer than 33 FD points in any game but also has GPP upside with 45+ points in 2 of his 5 games so far this season. This is a great spot for Boston as a whole as they not only have a high projected total but they should see a pace up game against an up-tempo Nuggets team which makes IT2 a key play to lock in at a reasonable price.
Ty Lawson ($4,900) From a cash game perspective, I love the consistency and guaranteed production we continue to get from Ty Lawson at a sub $5k price point. Lawson has played 30+ minutes in 5 of his 7 games this season and has been able to put up 20+ points in every one of those games. This is a simple minutes=production kind of play with the kind of solid floor we look for in cash games.
From a GPP perspective the match-up against Toronto is not ideal so I would not look here for upside. I would look towards Phoenix-Lakers which has the highest combined team total at 218.5 and with a 2 point spread this game should stay close allowing D’Angelo Russell ($6,100) & Eric Bledose ($7,500) to play major minutes in a high scoring game!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,900) No player on this slate has averaged more FD points per game (47.6) than The Alphabet so far this season and with a sub $10k price on a short slate he is a must play for me in all formats.
Giannis has put up between 42.6 – 52.9 points in each game he has played which shows you the consistent floor you can build around while capturing 50 pt GPP upside. His ability to rack up stats across the board – 22.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.7 steals – makes him a monster for DFS as he has the ability to rack up FanDuel points through a variety of paths.
DeMar DeRozan ($8,800) The man is absolutely on fire right now, averaging 45.1 FD points per game while averaging 35.8 actual points per game. From a cash game perspective, DeRozan is an easy play as he has put up 40+ FD points in every single game this season with an improved aggressive offensive attack that has made him one of the most consistent scorers in the game.
From a GPP perspective though, I am completely fading the Raptors star! Think about this – 80% of his 45.1 FD average is coming from his actual scoring which means he does essentially nothing outside of points! DeRozan is only averaging 5 rebounds and 2.6 assists so if his shot is not falling, his production will fall off a cliff! Right now DeRozan is shooting 55.1% and considering he is a career 44% shooter you know the correction is coming and he will be an automatic GPP fade for me every night!
If you are looking for a tournament pivot, I love the all around game of Avery Bradley ($6,800) who like Thomas, is in a high projected scoring game and faces a Nuggets team that is 27th in the league in DvP versus opposing SG’s. Bradley’s ability to contribute across the board, including two of his last three games with double-digit rebounds, gives him elite GPP upside and will be my perferred target when fading DeRozan.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forwards
Jaylen Brown ($3,800) With Jae Crowder out with an injury, Brown stepped into the Celtics lineup in his last game in a tough match-up with the Cavaliers and put up 19 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals for a whopping 35 FD points in 35 minutes which equates to 9.2x value!!!
This is an easy plug and play for me assuming Brown remains in the lineup (and why would Brad Stevens choose to sit the electric young talent after his last game). I expect he will be the chalk value play at SF but let other players get cute and lock in a guy at a near minimum price point with elite upside who plays for a team with the second highest team total on the board!
T.J. Warren ($6,300) Small forward is probably the most straight-forward position on the day as we can lock in Brown and Warren across all formats for a very reasonable price!
Warren has taken his game to a new level this season, averaging 34.5 FD points per game which is 5.5x value at this price point! Warren has taken on an expanded role in the Suns offense this year, averaging 17.7 shot attempts per game which is nearly double what he averaged last season and his ability to deliver rebounds and steals makes him a great all around play that allows you a solid cash game floor with GPP upside to pair with the expensive guards on this slate.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forwards & Center
Larry Nance Jr. ($4,100) First off, look at that dunk he threw down on the Warriors the other night. WOW! Secondly, realize that Nance has put up three straight games of 27.8, 28.9 and 29.5 FD points which hits 6x value on each occasion. To be able to roster a value play who is consistently hitting 6x value and plays on the team with the highest team total on the night makes this a must play for me in all formats!
Amir Johnson ($4,400) If you are looking for a value target to pair with Nance, look no further than Amir Johnson of the Celtics. With Al Horford out with a concussion, Johnson has stepped into an expanded role the last two games and has averaged 31.5 FD points per contest. The Nuggets front court has exceptional offensive upside but they have struggled on the defensive end and Johnson should continue to log major minutes at a value price point.
From a GPP perspective I would look to pivot to Julius Randle ($6,300) who is coming off a huge 20 point, 14 rebound effort against the Warriors and should be able to exploit a Suns front court that is 21st in the league in DvP against opposing PF’s.
DeMarcus Cousins ($9,700) In cash games, I am all for locking in the safety of Boogie Cousins at a relatively weak center position as he has averaged just under 40 FD points per game so far this season. The match-up here is not ideal as the Raptors are stout defensively against opposing centers (9th in DvP) and the Kings are playing on the second night of a back to back. Cousins only logged 28 minutes on Saturday so unless we hear otherwise, he should be locked into his usual minutes and makes for a steady play at a weak position.
In tournaments, the only other option in my mind is to pivot to Jusuf Nurkic ($6,000) who is averaging just 5 points less than Boogie for almost $4k worth of savings! Nurkic continues to be a double-double machine as he is averaging 15.2 points and 10.6 boards per game and with the savings you get from dropping down you can afford to pay up at other spots to differentiate your lineup!