Kentucky’s X-factor: Derek Willis is an avalanche waiting to be unleashed

In cryptography, the avalanche effect refers to a small change to the input of an algorithm that results in a large change to its output. Changing one number in the input code, for example, can yield vastly different results on the back end. More commonly, we might know of the butterfly effect — a small event with reverberating effects on other, subsequent events.

Avalanches are better metaphors than butterflies. The actual events — either induced by natural events or caused by human hands — are destructive. They fundamentally change the environment below them by sweeping over the landscape with some combination of snow and air at a rapid pace. The result is often a new terrain unlike what lied in that space before.

For the Kentucky Wildcats, Derek Willis can be the avalanche.

That is recognizably an aggressive proclamation to make regarding a player who came into college ranked outside of the top 100 in the Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) and who opened last season by playing single-digit minutes in five straight games after scoring in double figures against the Wildcats’ first two opponents.

Role players like Willis aren’t often identified as game changing. That phrase is almost exclusively reserved for superstars — seniors who have a profound statistical impact like Buddy Hield or Denzel Valentine and nationally recognized freshmen like Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram. This season, it will be used to describe those in the National Player of the Year Race — Grayson Allen, Markelle Fultz, Josh Hart. Dig a bit deeper, though, and Willis’ avalanche effect becomes clearer.

According to Hoop Lens, Kentucky’s offense scored 1.23 points per possession (PPP) last season when Willis was on the court. No other Wildcat produced a higher score. With Willis on the hardwood, Kentucky’s offense went from very good (the Wildcats ranked 12th nationally in points per possession) to great. Indiana led the country in 2015-16 in PPP at 1.17; Willis’ Kentucky lineups outperformed that number by 0.06 PPP. The 6-foot-9 forward finished ranked sixth nationally in offensive rating, according to KenPom, and would have ranked in the top 10 in the country in true shooting percentage had he played enough minutes to qualify. The conclusion to draw from those statistics is pretty simple: Willis was one of the most important role players in the nation last season.

Willis’ offensive game primarily revolves around his ability to stretch the floor from the power forward spot. As a junior, he converted 44.2 percent of his three-point attempts while taking nearly three times as many three-pointers (120 attempts) as two-point shots (48 attempts). Only one other player on Kentucky’s roster converted better than 35.0 percent of their three-point attempts last season, which makes Willis’ contributions even more valuable as he was one of the Wildcats who could help open up space on the offensive end and allow point guard Tyler Ulis to take advantage of getting into the paint.

Having a power forward who can shoot fundamentally changes the nature of how an offense must be defended because it allows the offensive team to force opposing defenders into difficult decisions regarding which shot to give up. With Willis on the court, opponents have a choice to make — either collapse down into the paint against a post up or a penetrating guard and allow Willis an open look, or stay with Willis along the perimeter and allow a high-percentage shot close to the rim.

Here’s a good look at what happens when Willis’ defender closes down in the paint. Against Kansas, the 6-foot-9 forward got a wide open look because Perry Ellis dove off of Willis to help double team an Alex Poythress drive against Landen Lucas:

For the Wildcats, that’s an incredibly efficient possession — creating an open three-point look for a better than 40 percent outside shooter. The other way in which Willis affects the offensive end is a bit more complicated to diagnose. Because of his knock down shooting, Willis requires the attention of defenders any time he is one or two passes away from getting the ball. Think of it as his gravitational pull; a force that keeps opposing defenders from drifting too far outside his orbit. In the below clip, we can see the phenomenon in action:

As Ulis turns the corner and gets into the lane, he has a free drive to the hoop for a layup. Willis is stationed in the corner at the top of the screen, once against guarded by Ellis. Ellis could slide inside and cut off Ulis’ penetration, but if he does, then the point guard will kick it out for an open corner three-pointer. Ellis darts in, but hesitates and turns back to Willis, meaning that Kansas center Cheick Diallo has to rotate off of Poythress to stop the drive, giving a smart point guard like Ulis an open pass for a Poythress dunk that Diallo is just too late to stop.

Willis’s offensive exploits are incredibly important, but there’s a reason that he didn’t play more than 20 minutes per game last season. Playing for a coach that prides himself on the defensive efforts of his players, Willis struggled to find his place on that end of the floor. The 6-foot-9 forward struggled with getting in the right positions, he lacked the physical strength to constantly stay in a defensive stance and his attention to detail often came and went as a defender. John Calipari went so far as to describe coaching Willis on defense as “teaching a different language to him.”

For the sharpshooter to stay on the floor, he’ll have to improve his defense as a senior, something he understands well.

“At times I felt like I hurt the team defensively,” Willis said after Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament loss to Indiana. “I feel like that’s what I need to take a lot more pride in this summer: figure out how to play defense.”

The good news is that Willis has the physical tools to be a quality collegiate defender. At 6-foot-9, he’s tall enough to guard most power forwards and can even battle against some college centers. He also has a 7-foot wingspan, meaning he should have the length to bother offensive players and help contain guards if he gets switched onto them along the perimeter. Willis has at least started to think about defense during the offseason.

“There will be days I’ll have a couple breakdowns and it’s in my head: ‘My God, I’m not playing any defense,'” he told reporters last month. If Willis can stay engaged and at worst become a passable defender, then his value on the court skyrockets because of how important he is on the other end.

Assuming his defense has improved over the summer, it will be up to Calipari to define a role for Willis on a loaded 2016-17 Kentucky roster. In addition to talented returners Isaiah Briscoe and Isaac Humphries, the Wildcats will also have their usual cadre of five-star freshmen available. The frontcourt, in particular, figures to be a bit crowded. Calipari has already praised Humphries as Kentucky’s most improved player entering the season. Top 10 freshman Bam Adebayo figures to earn the starting job at center as a physically imposing, high energy big man who should excel in Calipari’s offense. Wenyen Gabriel and Sacha Killeya-Jones, meanwhile, are both five-star, top 25 recruits who can slot in at the power forward spot creating a solid competition with Willis for playing time.

Kentucky’s guard rotation is just as talented, but is missing the type of shooting that Willis can offer. Isaiah Briscoe is back for his sophomore season, and while there are rumblings of an improved jumper, he attempted just 37 three-pointers as a freshman despite playing in over 75 percent of the team’s minutes. Freshman point guard De’Aaron Fox also isn’t known for his three-point shooting despite the fact that he’ll immediately be handed the keys to the offense on day one. Freshman shooting guard Malik Monk is the Wildcats’ best perimeter scoring option, but he’s a streaky shooter who hasn’t shown he’s consistent enough to rely on for an entire season.

Still, that wealth of talent will give Calipari plenty of options, which is important when trying to construct the highest performance rotation. Putting together a rotation and specific lineups within it is like putting together a puzzle or trying to crack a complicated code. Calipari will have at his disposal a number of potential inputs to help him and pressing the right buttons is something he’s historically done well. In 2014, he introduced college basketball to “the tweak” that led an eight seed to the national title game. In 2016, he once again released a “tweak” in Lexington that helped propel the Wildcats to a share of the SEC regular season title. Now, he’ll have the opportunity to do it again as he tries to decode Kentucky’s best lineup. The big question remaining is whether or not he’ll unleash the avalanche that can help reshape the way that the Wildcats play on offense.