Your 4 Game Slate today in NBA Fanduel consists of:
Los Angeles Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves – O/U: 216, MIN – 4.5
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers – O/U: 216, POR -5.5
Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors: – O/U: 230, GSW -16
Orlando Magic @ Oklahoma City Thunder: O/U: 203, -9
I always start by laying out what Vegas projects for every NBA game on the night before building a lineup in DFS. It’s just how I get an idea of where the value is on the night depending on the teams playing and how the game environment effects every player’s usage and production, by first looking for games with the highest O/U and the lowest spreads.
Games where the spread is low and the O/U is high, typically will correlate to your best players having to be on the floor for longer, getting more opportunities to score and accumulate FDP in other stats. So these are games where I usually feel comfortable about rostering a premium priced player.
In games with high O/U’s and high spreads, I’m usually reaching deep into these rosters for capable scorers who can make something happen with the teams second unit. Grabbing a moderately priced (< $7,500) starting guard, with another reliable backup guard priced around $4,500 or less, isn’t a bad strategy, since presumably one of the two or both will always be on the floor generating FDP. In games where there are moderate O/U’s (205-195) and small spreads, I lean more toward investing in premier big men to be the most effective, and games with low O/U’s and high spreads I fade altogether.
Certainly you should always check on individual defensive matchups and team comparison stats if you have a hunch about a player or exploitation, but checking the odds first thing in the morning is a great way to get a Cliff-notes style rundown of what outcomes to expect on the night. There is a balance involved also, the tricky part is knowing when to swap good value for great value even if that means alternating 4 or 5 different roster spots.
The following picks are where I interpret the some of the most value to be today, according to Vegas’ projections.
PG – Stephen Curry PHO@GS $8,900
Vegas is projecting the O/U on the Warriors/Suns game tomorrow to be a stunning 230, so there are a ton of points to go around. The spread is also gigantic with the Warriors being favored by 16. It is very likely that Curry may be pulled by the end of the third quarter, but that’s typically the kind of scenario where he’s already barraged a team from deep and put the game out of reach.
So even with the game not projected to be a competitive one, I’m still not betting against his $8,900 (projected 44.5 FDP) salary. In what should be a defensively underwhelming, transition heavy game for the Warriors. I think Curry will approach close to his value easily, in a worst case scenario. Best case scenario is that he gets a hot hand and opts to toy with the Suns from beyond the arc for most of the game, because I personally think with the cast of scorers Phoenix has, this game may not get put away until well into the 4th.
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PG – Russell Westbrook ORL@OKC $11,600
If an $11.6k pricetag seems outrageous for Westbrook and would seem to jam your salary cap for the night, thousands of players are probably having the same reaction. Don’t forget he chipped in 57.9 FDP in his first game of the season at Philly, 80.6 FDP in his second game of the season at home against the Suns (Granted, last in the league in Opponent PPG), and 67.2 FDP in his third game of the season against the Lakers at home. Against teams the Thunder are healthy favorites against, Westbrook tends to show up.
I’m going to go with Westbrook here on the premise that his ownership percentage will be low because of his unattractively high salary. Yet, I think there are so many bargains in the Suns/Warriors game that you can manage to plug in those holes for <$4k, and get all the benefits of Westbrook’s seemingly constant production when he’s on the floor. He scores 29% of his team’s points, so in a game where there aren’t many to go around, I think Westbrook opts to keep the ball more and blow right past the likes of Elfrid Payton on many possessions. My main concern however is that the Thunder are favored by 9, so depending on how this game unfolds, Westbrook may see more bench time than anticipated if it gets out of hand for the Magic.
SG – Evan Fournier ORL@OKC $5,700
Speaking of Orlando at OKC, versus Utah at home the other night Evan Fournier put together a solid line of 21 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 turnovers, and also 3 steals for 34.8 FDP. He’s the Magic’s leader in points and minutes per game on the year, so I like him to play huge in this matchup if Orlando is to have a chance at the Thunder in their house. Fournier only needs to chip in 28.5 on the night for him to get your money’s worth, and his $5,700 salary is low enough to keep a lot of flexibility in your cap. His stock is on the rise and I’m getting in early.
SG – CJ McCollum DEN@POR $7,400
Minus his 12.8 FDP clunker against the Clippers and the league’s best defense, CJ McCollum has been averaging a solid 50 FDP in 3 of his last 4 games. His price continues to rise, yet he keeps outperforming it, and he may realistically be a $7,900-$8,100 player. Also noteworthy about the game tonight is the fact that Al-Farouq Aminu is out. So picking up some of what Aminu usually brings to the table against a weak defensive team like the Nuggets should give McCollum the green light to continue to dominate the NBA like he has this past week.
SF – Wilson Chandler DEN@POR $5,200
I think Wilson Chandler has the best chance to be the sleeper of this pack. Coming off of missing a few games typically results in lower ownership percentages. In a game such as this, with a modest spread, I can see Chandler doing a lot for the Nuggets on offense.
He’s still an effective scorer, and against this team with no Will Barton back yet, I think he soaks up a healthy dose of minutes and opportunities to contribute and be effective. Chandler is currently 3rd in points per game and 4th in rebounds per game, so those are both encouraging signs for this matchup with Portland who, is last in the league in total opponent rebounds per game. Gary Harris does pose a threat to Chandler’s value, but I think anyone that springs for Harris over Chandler is just forfeiting one of two very valuable shooting guard slots on the day.
SF – PJ Tucker PHO@GS $3,900
The spread and the pace of the game in Phoenix vs. Golden State, points to an all-hands-on-deck approach from the Suns and lots of stats trickling down to the Suns bench players. PJ Tucker isn’t a great scorer, but his career averages of 7.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.2 steals are hopefully indicative of a healthy stat line across the board at the end of this game.
PF – Jared Dudley PHO@GS $3,700
My entire lineup and outlook on today is built around Dudley and Tucker for a combined $7,600 (38 FDP). Dudley is my cheapest player in my lineup in a game with the highest O/U and spread on the night. He and PJ Tucker are two very viable options that have a modest amount of value. In a game that is sure to consume everything the Suns have to offer in scoring, and 56.7 total FDP over his last 2 games, I’m confident Jared Dudley is a worthwhile low-risk pick in a volatile high-tempo game. I think it’s highly unlikely that the veteran doesn’t play a moderate part in the Suns effort to help pull off the massive upset. My hope is where Tucker or Dudley come up short, the other will pick up the slack meeting the combined necessary mark in FDP of 38.
PF – Julius Randle LAL@MIN $6,300
This pick is probably the most uncreative of any in my lineup. I feel like Randle’s ownership will be high, and his output could be iffy, but he chipped in an interesting line for himself last night at New Orleans outside of his speciality of just rebounds and points, adding 8 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks to his 8 points and 11 rebounds. HIs 8 dimes were his highest mark on the year in that category, so it’s an encouraging sign for his value as a utility player, but he’s no Draymond yet. So again, expect any points he does rack up against the Timberwolves to be in the field of points and rebounding out of sheer necessity.
C – Nikola Vucevic ORL@OKC $7,100
Orlando at OKC is the lowest O/U on the day, so in this game I invested into Orlando’s two leading scorers because it’s unlikely any of the supporting cast is going to have a huge share of the scoring when there isn’t a whole lot to go around to begin with. I’m not optimistic about Vucevic’s ownership percentage being low, but I can’t bet against what he can do in this matchup against the Thunder at home.
The Thunder are a team below average in rebounding, and 18th in the league in points per game, as opposed to 2nd in the league last year (Which should surprise nobody with Kevin Durant gone, but just keep in mind that they aren’t a shade of the highly efficient offense they were last year). I like what Vucevic can do against Steven Adams, and at the tempo this game is projected to be and Oklahoma City’s 47% floor %, the game should fall right into his hands.
Next: NBA FanDuel Picks And Pivots November 13
Good luck out there. Make sure to check out our NFL DFS lineups before the games lock!