DraftKings NBA Picks for November 16
22 of the 30 NBA teams are in action tonight, so we have one of the larger DraftKings tournaments of the season so far. There are several elite options, so who should we really pay for. We also need to uncover some bargains to afford these expensive players. We will search for those as well.
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DraftKings is making one very important change for the 2016-2017 season. For some strange reason, they gave up their only advantage over FanDuel for NBA games. DraftKings decided to lock ALL games when the contest starts just as FanDuel does. Trust me, this has burned me more than once in the early going so far. I’m sure it has you as well.
The big difference now between FanDuel and DraftKings is the lineups. FanDuel has one more slot, but you are confined to two of every position except center, where you get one. On DraftKings, you get a starting five plus a G, F, and UTIL. This is still an advantage over FanDuel because we can play two centers even though the roster is smaller!
Sound like fun? If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for a free entry into the Fantasy Football Millionaire contest. We have plenty of advice on the site to help you turn that free entry into a solid bankroll!
Point Guards
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($11,900): Detroit looked like a tough matchup. Westbrook still dropped 61.75 DraftKings points against them. He has hit at least 5x value in three straight games, and while his price makes it nearly impossible for you to get 6x, it has happened. In fact, Westbrook has reached 7x value or more three times this season. Few players can do that.
Stephen Curry ($9,400): The Raptors are the worst in the league at allowing points to opposing point guards. Curry has hit 50 or more DraftKings points three times in his last four games. His is virtually a lock for four of five, and is a great fade option to Westbrook.
Honorable Mention:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,000): Giannis is a low-risk option because he contributes across all categories. That is something no other point guard does. He put up a whole bunch of crooked numbers against Memphis on Saturday (27 points, six rebounds, five assists, four blocks, and four steals). That kind of production gives him a high floor. Anything under 4x value is a bust. Giannis has only been under that once all season.
Eric Bledsoe ($6,900): The Nuggets have allowed the seventh most points to point guards this year. Bledsoe is an above average rebounder to go with his passing and scoring skills. He is averaging right at 5x value this season. There is no reason he will be below average against the Nuggets.
Dark Horses:
Dennis Schroder ($6,300): For as great of a player as Giannis Antetokounmpo is, the Bucks have still allowed the seventh most fantasy points to point guards. That looks very good for Schroder, who is growing into his own as the full time point guard with Atlanta. Schroder has been over 6x value in three of his last four games. There is a good chance that it happens again.
Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,700): Mudiay has not been very consistent this year. That said, Phoenix is a DFS player’s paradise. The uptempo game always provides a chance for more points than usual. Mudiay only needs 28.5 DraftKings points for 5x value. He has a great chance of doing that against Phoenix.
My pick: N/A
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($12,200): Harden has been ridiculous against the Thunder in his career. He averages 28.9 points per game against his former team – more than three points higher than against any other team. Expect another huge night for Harden, from a guy that makes huge nights almost routine.
DeMar DeRozan ($8,600): The Warriors have given up the third most points to shooting guards this year. You also don’t need me to remind you that DeRozan has been on fire since the preseason. He had another 46.5 DraftKings points last night against a solid Cleveland defense. Don’t worry about using him against the Warriors.
Honorable Mention:
Devin Booker ($6,500): The dropoff at SG is steeper than at any other position. Booker is a scorer only, which means if he goes cold, your lineup in done. The Nuggets have allowed points by the bushel though, and with Will Barton still out, Booker should see enough open looks to put up value.
Klay Thompson ($6,400): Speaking of streaky, Thompson is notorious for that. He hit a season-high 30 in his last game, but that was against the Suns. Now he gets the team that allows the second most points to shooting guards right after the team that allows the most. Expect another good one for Thompson. The bad news? Even though he sank 30 points, he has just 34 DraftKings points.
Dark Horse:
Kent Bazemore ($5,100): After an atrocious start to the season, Bazemore has picked it up lately. He has 33 or more DraftKings points in three of his last four games. The Bucks are in the middle of the pack when it comes to points for shooting guards, but Bazemore does enough other things that he should be able to make 5x value again.
Jamal Murray ($3,700): It may have taken Murray a little while to get going in the NBA, but his shot has been falling lately. He has hit 25-57 since starting the season 0-16. Murray only needs 18.5 DraftKings points for 5x value, and he is playing a Phoenix team that should give him plenty of open shots.
My pick: Harden(PG), Bazemore(SG), Murray(G)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($10,300): So what if he didn’t hit 60 DraftKings points in a game until last night? The King still averages 5x value. That means he has virtually no chance of being a bust, and he is a sure 50 points. The Pacers have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to small forwards, so it could happen again tonight!
Kevin Durant ($9,500): Durant doesn’t score as much as he did with the Thunder, and he is not as consistent as LeBron, but he still puts up between 45-55 DraftKings points in nearly every game. If you think James is going to be too widely used, or if you just need the $300 elsewhere, Durant is a solid alternative.
Honorable Mention:
Otto Porter ($6,500): Porter battled poor shooting and foul trouble against the Bulls on Saturday and finished with his worst game of the year. Expect a bounce back to form here against the 76ers. They aren’t the disaster they were last year, but they aren’t that great either.
Tobias Harris ($6,500): His inconsistency is the only thing keeping him from being a really good fantasy option. Harris is mostly a scorer. Thankfully for him the Knicks have allowed the third most points to opposing small forwards. Another game over 6x value is not out of reach.
Dark Horses:
Trevor Ariza ($5,600): Ariza’s across the board production makes him virtually bust-proof. He started slow this year, but Ariza has topped 5x value in five of his last six games. The Thunder are middle of the pack against small forwards, but Ariza’s defense is what makes him really valuable. He has three or more steals in five of his last six as well.
Vince Carter ($4,300): What is this, 2006? Carter has at least 20 DraftKings points in each of his last five games, and he has topped 30 twice in the last three. Carter is on fire right now, but can he keep it up against the Clippers, who are the stingiest team in the league to opposing small forwards? He only needs 21.5 DraftKings points to hit 5x value, but I’m not sure he can get it here no matter how hot he is.
My pick: Ariza(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($10,900): Davis went from on fire, to ice cold, to the model of consistency, all in the span of three weeks. Davis has had between 49 and 56 DraftKings points in each of his last six games. That is just shy of 5x value, but if you want a sure 50, Davis will give it to you. Most of his peers can’t say that.
Draymond Green ($8,200): Statistically, Toronto is strong against opposing power forwards. You know what? I don’t care. Green’s skill set is tied to his ability to get crooked numbers in every category. He is no reliant on scoring, and is the best passing power forward in the game. He does everything well. Green has yet to finish under 35 DraftKings points in a game this year.
Honorable Mention:
Kevin Love ($7,800): Love put up 48.25 DraftKings points on a supposedly strong Toronto front, making it the third time he has topped 40 in the last four games. Love has reeled off five straight double-doubles, and wont slow down against a Pacers team allowing the sixth most fantasy points to small forwards.
Dark Horses:
Patrick Patterson ($4,200): Rookie Pascal Siakam can’t stay out of foul trouble, so Patterson still logs more minutes than the named starter. Patterson has also put up between 20 and 27 DraftKings points in each of his last five games. Did we mention he gets the Warriors tonight, who have allowed the most fantasy points to power forwards so far this year? This could be a better than normal game for Patterson.
Jared Dudley ($4,000): Dudley has racked up 91 DraftKings points in his last three games after a slow start. What changed? He was moved to the bench, and it has caused Dudley to explode. Expect that trend to continue, which makes him criminally underpriced and the best bargain on the board right now.
My pick: Patterson(PF), Dudley(F)
Center
Best Bet:
DeMarcus Cousins ($8,900): This is the lowest I ever remember seeing his price. Cousins has been between 46 and 55 DraftKings points over each of his last four games. I don’t expect him in that range tonight. I expect him way over. The Spurs have allowed the second most fantasy points to centers on the season. Cousins is going to be a great bargain at this price!
Honorable Mention:
DeAndre Jordan ($6,600): The Grizzlies have been abused on the interior this year. That alone makes Jordan an intriguing pick if you can afford him. Jordan has come up big in good matchups so far. Tonight should be no different. The Grizzlies have allowed the third most fantasy points to centers.
Marc Gasol ($6,200): If you prefer to go consistency over upside, Gasol is your man. Gasol has not been below 28 DraftKings points in a game yet this year, and has been over 6x value four times already. It could happen tonight against the Clippers.
Joel Embiid ($6,100): Everyone knows that Embiid in on a strict minutes cap, but it hasn’t really mattered. He has been over 5x value in each of the last five games. He should be tonight as well. The cap will continue for a while, but it also caps his price, which is beneficial to us.
Dark Horses:
Jonas Valanciunas ($6,000): So much for Lucas Noguiera. Valanciunas charted 36 minutes to Noguiera’s ten last night. That makes Jonas a great bargain with his price right here.
Clint Capela ($5,100): Capela has yet to play more than 28 minutes in a game this season, but much like Embiid, he is producing anyway. Capela has topped 6x value in three of the last four games, and is a strong bet to do so against the Thunder again tonight.
My pick: Cousins(C), Gasol(UTIL)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, our DFS NHL picks, and plenty of NFL advice heading into your weekend. We will also have the college football picks against the spread. You don’t want to miss any of this!