Could Nicolo Melli earn a chance in the NBA?

This past summer, there was an influx of European talent to the NBA the likes of which we haven’t seen in a long time. While European imports are nothing new, this summer saw several players come over, through the draft, stash rights, and outright free agency. Dario Saric headlined the group, but players like Davis Bertans, Sergio Rodriguez, and Mindaugas Kuzminskas came over after strong Euroleague campaigns to fill out rosters around the league. It’s clear that teams are looking to Europe as well as the D-League as a method of finding cheap bench depth.

Looking forward to this year’s free agency, identifying who those types of players will be is a bit more challenging. This year’s Euroleague talent is not quite at the same level from an NBA perspective, and finding guys who will fit well in NBA systems is tough. The yearly rumors will likely circle around Real Madrid’s Sergio Llull and CSKA Moscow’s Milos Teodosic, as they always do. But if you’re looking for an under-the-radar player who could fit as a Bertans or Kuzminskas-type signing, look no further than Brose Bamberg’s Nicolo Melli.

Melli is an Italian-born power forward who has spent the last six seasons playing at the top level of European basketball, first at EA7 Milano and now for Brose Bamberg. He’s grown up through the last few seasons, from bit player in 2011-2012 into a very solid starting four. Having lost former Pitt Panther Brad Wanamaker over the summer, Brose has struggled so far this season. But even though they’re 2-6 in Euroleague play, Melli has done a great job of helping to shoulder some of the load as his team adjusts. He’s currently averaging 12 points, eight rebounds, and two assists per game in Euroleague play, and he’s often a focal point of the Brose offense, even if he doesn’t score a lot. Perhaps more importantly, though, this season has let Melli showcase why at 25-years old, he could be primed for a jump to the NBA.

Much like his fellow Italians Danilo Gallinari, Marco Belinelli, and Andrea Bargnani, Melli will get his foot in the NBA door with a dynamite shooting stroke. He wasn’t always good at this, mind you: he hit just 29.6 percent of his 3s from 10-11 to 12-13. But in 13-14, he hit 37.8 percent, and his numbers have gotten better as his stroke has improved. Last year he arrived, shooting 45.3 percent on 3-pointers for the season.

This year, he’s somehow taken his shooting to another level. He’s hit 14-of-24 3-pointers in eight games, which is a blistering 58.3 percent pace. He’s not a guy who will go on hot streaks and get his 3s in stretches: instead, he’s a threat for getting shots in the flow of an offense, comfortable shooting out of pick-and-pops or off of spot-up opportunities.

Melli’s mechanics have come a long way since his days at Milano, and as his game has grown, shooting has become more and more of an emphasis for him on the court. Melli can also be versatile out of those pick-and-pop opportunities, attacking if he has a mismatch or hitting cutters with his solid court vision:

Bamberg does an excellent job of showcasing Melli’s post game, another strength that could provide him with a unique role at the NBA level. In coach Andrea Trinchieri’s post-centric offense, Melli often is the focal point of offensive sets, operating from a post-up slightly outside the paint along the baseline. From here, Melli has a lot of opportunities to hit his go-to moves: A spin move that creates an open lane to the basket, or a soft turnaround jumper:

However, the real bread-and-butter for Melli is passing out of these looks. Melli’s an excellent passer, with great court vision and solid technique. He posted a 17.1 percent assist rate last year, and is at 13.5 percent this year. A lot of those assists will be cross-court skip passes that you just have to marvel at, like this:

With this skill set, it’s not hard to envision a role for Melli in the NBA. Even though he’s a little undersized to be a full-time NBA four, he’s adequately athletic enough to handle minutes at the three, and a team could use him similarly to how Detroit uses Tobias Harris, or how Washington uses Markieff Morris. In some lineups he can roam around the 3-point line as a shooting threat, and in bench-heavy units that may lack a proven perimeter creator, he can initiate from the post or elbow thanks to his passing. It’s a niche role, but that niche is one that many teams, particularly ones with young developing point guards, may find useful.

The one major drawback to Melli is that he’s not the most fluid athlete, and the competition jump from Europe to the NBA may be hard for him to overcome. He fits into that dreaded tweener forward category, too small to fully battle at the four, but too slow to really be safe at the three. While he’s a solid rebounder in Europe (27.4 defensive rebound rate), that may not be the case in the NBA, where he might be on the perimeter more defensively guarding threes and stretch fours, and will have the same size issues.

But Melli can compensate for his expected defensive issues, thanks to his defensive IQ and effort. He’s not your typical Italian horror show of apathy on defense (Hey, Belinelli!), and communicates switches and rotations well on the defensive end. He doesn’t get fooled by dribble moves, and can comfortably show and recover in the pick-and-roll.

Nicolo Melli is a name that should be on NBA radars heading into the summer of 2017. At 25-years old, he’s right at the start of his prime, and he’s a player who has a lot of NBA-level offensive skills, headlined by a three-point shot that he’s raining down at a career-high rate this year. He’s also going to be a free agent this summer, which means NBA teams won’t have to worry about negotiating a buyout.

If Melli is interested (And after his experience with the Italian national team next to some of Italy’s biggest NBA stars, why wouldn’t he?), an NBA team should be able to find a spot for him. If he keeps his torrid shooting up, and Bamberg continues to struggle, he should be one of Europe’s most sought-after free agents in June.

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