The New Orleans Pelicans and Anthony Davis do not need more Omer Asik

At the end of the day the New Orleans Pelicans don’t really matter that much in the 2016-2017 season. New Orleans is at best the seventh or eighth best team in the Western Conference and, at worst, one of the three most terrible teams in the suddenly weak West. Really, the only reason to pay attention to the Pelicans most nights is the fact that Anthony Davis is an alien.

I used to run FanSided’s Pelicans blog, Pelican Debrief, so my Twitter timeline on a nightly basis is full of Pelicans fans and bloggers. Which means just about every time the Pelicans lose the same arguments get brought up. And the most common arguments center around one man — Omer Asik.

Since he has arrived in New Orleans, Omer Asik has been a divisive figure. In his first year in New Orleans, Asik, who stands 7-feet tall and only takes shots at the rim, had his shot blocked more times than he dunked. With his complete inability to do anything on offense, Asik has become a scapegoat for plenty of team droughts at that end of the floor. On the other hand, that same year the Pelicans defense saw significant positive differences with Asik on the floor.

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After a down 2015-2016 season that seemed tied to injuries, Asik is back to being an on/off positive for New Orleans. Combine that with the fact that the Pelicans are struggling and the Asik needs to play argument takes flight.

But like most things, it is not that simple. Based on plenty of other available data there is another conclusion to make. If the Pelicans are going to reach their ceiling, both for this season and beyond, Omer Asik needs to play less. The most important part of this argument is simple. For New Orleans to reach their best Anthony Davis needs to be at his best. While that doesn’t seem like a controversial statement regarding one of the league’s five best players, it is very important.

And we have seen what the best version of Anthony Davis plays like. That guy flies down the middle of the lane out of the pick-and-roll, and pops for open 3s when defenses collapse to prevent a rim run. And when defenses close out too hard on Davis thanks to the threat of the 3? He blows past slow big men and creates points for someone thanks to an open lane.

That version of Davis, one with plenty of space to work, seemingly makes for an unstoppable offense. After all, defenses try to take away layups and open 3s and a Davis with an open lane almost automatically generates one of those two things.

Unfortunately, playing Anthony Davis with Omer Asik eliminates that space and Davis’s numbers prove it.

All of the following stats come from stats.nba.com. 

As a whole Davis has taken 28.3 percent of his shots this season within five feet and shot a nice 69.9 percent from that range. Taking things a step further, Davis has taken 25.8 percent of his shots from the restricted area in total and shot 68.1 percent on those shots.

But put Asik on the floor and things change. With his big Turkish friend sharing the court, Davis suddenly sees his shots within 5 feet drop to 20.3 percent of his attempts. And not only does Davis lose those shots at the rim, he shoots worse (66.7 percent) on the ones he gets. Shots in the restricted area show the same difference. With Asik on the floor Davis sees his attempts (18.9%) and field goal percentage (64.3%) drop.

The why isn’t hard to figure out. Defenses just don’t respect Asik, who has to be near the rim to have any value. That means as Davis attacks the rim there is already a defender around to meet him.

And it isn’t just this season. Here are the same numbers from the 2015-2016 season.

And here they are in Asik’s first and best season in New Orleans, 2014-2015.

So yeah, in every single year the Davis/Asik pairing has existed Anthony Davis has been a worse offensive player with Omer Asik on the floor.

Now, if the Davis/Asik pairing made up for it on defense, things would be different. And so far the pairing has made New Orleans a bit better on that end all three years. But honestly the differences aren’t that significant and come mostly in one area.

Per that same NBA stats data, Davis and Asik combined really matters most in preventing free throw attempts for opponents. As for other numbers, there has not been a drastic difference. In fact, in many areas the Pelicans defense has been better with Davis and no Asik as opposed to playing both. For instance:

• In all three years the Pelicans have given up a lower percentage from 3-point territory with Asik on the bench.
• The biggest difference in opponents field goal percentage with Asik and Davis vs Davis and no Asik is 0.4 percent in 2014-2015.
• In 2014-2015 New Orleans gave up 3.1 offensive rebounds per 48 minutes more with Davis and no Asik vs. Davis and Asik. Last year it was less than one. This year the Pelicans give up less than 1 more.
• Opponents have averaged more assists per 48 minutes against Asik/Davis than Davis and no Asik all three years.

The big difference comes in opponents free throw attempts per 48 minutes against Davis and Asik lineups. Those pairings have been great at lowering those attempts over all three years when compared to Davis playing with Asik. The pairing also lowers the amount of opponents shots and field goal percentages within five feet and in the restricted area.

Part of this is Asik who does do a good job of getting in the way at the rim. Part is also the fact that non-Asik lineups for two years included Ryan Anderson who couldn’t guard you. But part is also on Davis, who has not yet developed into the defender everyone expected. Davis still gets caught too often ball watching and falling asleep and missing rotations. While some of that is related to trying to catch his break after carrying the New Orleans offense every night, it still matters and impacts a defense.

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Taking all the data into account does paint a very clear picture. For Anthony Davis and the Pelicans to reach their peak he probably needs a center next to him. But that center needs to be able to move around and spread the floor so Davis can command the paint on offense.

Omer Asik isn’t that guy. We have two plus seasons of data now telling us that Anthony Davis is a better player without Omer Asik. And that the Pelicans are not much different with Omer Asik on the bench while Anthony Davis plays.

If the Pelicans are going to be bad at least let Anthony Davis flourish. He deserves that. And so does everyone else who has to watch that team every night.