The No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers open as a slight favorite over the No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions in Saturday’s Big Ten Championship Game.
A berth in the College Football Playoff could be on the line when the No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers take on the No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions in the 2016 Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday night in Indianapolis.
Wisconsin won the Big Ten West with a record of 10-2, with the only blemishes coming in back-to-back narrow losses against Michigan and Ohio State in early October. The Badgers earned a marquee non-conference win over LSU to start the season and have largely been ranked in the top 10 ever since.
Despite two head coaches making shock departures over the past few seasons, the Badgers have now qualified for the Big Ten Championship Game four times in its six-year history. Wisconsin probably needs some help to make the playoff, but is still in the running with a victory on Saturday.
At the end of September, Penn State was sitting at 2-2 with a loss to rival Pittsburgh and absolute beatdown at the hands of Michigan. Since then, the Nittany Lions have won eight in a row, including a season-defining victory over Ohio State on Oct. 22.
Winning the Big Ten East over Michigan and Ohio State is an incredible feat for a program that may have been pondering the future of head coach James Franklin just two months ago. A Penn State win would certainly give the Playoff committee plenty to think about before selecting the national semifinalists on Sunday.
Oddsmakers predictably expect a fairly low-scoring game, with Wisconsin opening as a 1.5-point favorite.
Odds
Point Spread: Wisconsin -1.5
Moneyline: Wisconsin -125, Penn State +125
O/U: 46.5
The game could come down to which team can overcome a key injury more effectively. Wisconsin quarterback Alex Hornibrook is questionable after leaving Saturday’s game against Minnesota with a head injury, while star Penn State running back Saquon Barkley is expected to play but could be feeling the effects of last week’s foot injury.
If Hornibrook can’t go, the Badgers will turn to backup Bart Houston in his place. Houston started the first three games of the season and was solid in relief against the Golden Gophers, completing nine of 14 passes for 123 yards.
No matter who the quarterback is, Wisconsin’s offense is going to lean heavily on their terrific running back, Corey Clement. A one-dimensional offense could cause some problems against a Penn State defense that has been solid in Big Ten play, particularly against the run with defensive end Garrett Sickels emerging as a force.
On the other side, it’s difficult to see the Nittany Lions moving the ball much unless Barkley goes off. Wisconsin ranks fourth in the nation in scoring defense at 13.7 points allowed per game thanks to the best group of linebackers in the nation and a few playmakers in the secondary.
That puts a lot of pressure on Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley, who put on a show last week against Michigan State. McSorley has a great deep ball and can cause some damage with his legs, but has also been inaccurate as a passer at times this year.
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It could be a long day for both offenses in a game that may be reminiscent of last year’s epic showdown between Michigan State and Iowa. In the end, the Wisconsin defense will prove to be just a little too much for a Penn State team that hasn’t played a really quality opponent in over a month. Wisconsin defensive backs Leo Musso and Sojourn Shelton could force McSorley into some mistakes, which will be critical in such a low-scoring game.
Prediction: Wisconsin 20, Penn State 14