Clippers superstar Chris Paul found a way to extend his prime

It’s not so easy, statistically, to isolate precisely why the Los Angeles Clippers have elevated themselves from the land of the very good, where they’ve resided for the past few seasons, into a team taken seriously as a championship contender. The top seven in minutes played for the Clippers this year returned from last year’s team. The eighth, Raymond Felton, is not changing anybody’s opinion of Doc Rivers’ team. The team features greater overall depth, but any changes are at the margins.

Moreover, baked into the conception of the Clippers was a simple — perhaps unfair — reality. Chris Paul, who has a strong claim as the best point guard of the past two decades, is simply brilliant. But that hasn’t been enough to propel the Clippers past an array of Western Conference playoff opponents. And with Paul turning 31 in May, the question wasn’t whether he’d decline, but rather when, given his age and the way quickness plays such an integral part in his game.

So it is notable, and paradigm-changing, to see what Paul is doing in 2016-17 so far. He’s become even better, and he’s doing it in a way that should lengthen his peak.

“To me, [Paul’s] progression as a shooter, his ability to shoot the ball, is way underrated” — Kenny Atkinson

Last season, 29.5 percent of Paul’s field goal attempts were 3s. That was on par with the year before, 29.8 percent, and a bit above his career mark of 22.5 percent. Entering Tuesday night’s game against the Nets, however, that figure jumped to 42.8 percent this year.

There are many factors for this — Paul had laser surgery on his eyes this summer, which has helped him see the basket from further away more clearly. And both he and his coach, Rivers, recognized an opportunity to exploit in the way opponents were defending Paul.

“He’s so difficult in pick-and-rolls, teams are trying to mix up coverages,” Rivers said prior to the Clippers’ game against Brooklyn. “And one of the things we noticed was that last year, teams would go under [screens] at times. And this year, he’s making them pay for it.”

The 40.2 percent he’s making from distance entering Tuesday’s game would be Paul’s best 3-point performance since the 2009-10 season. But the significantly greater number of 3s he’s taking pushed his Player Efficiency Rating up to 28.5 so far, which is right in the range of his very best seasons: 2007-08 (28.3) and 2008-09 (30.0). He’s been anything but mediocre since, but his age 24-30 seasons have averaged a PER of 25.6, and topped out at 27 back in 2011-12. Again, these are easy, first-ballot Hall of Fame numbers, but they hadn’t been enough to alter Los Angeles’ trajectory.

The effect is felt in the other locker rooms already. Brooklyn Nets coach Kenny Atkinson said he’s had to gameplan around the new, bombs-away game of Paul this year.

“To me, his progression as a shooter, his ability to shoot the ball, is way underrated,” Atkinson said. “We’ve talked about it at the coaches’ meeting. This team is very pick-your-poison. But we definitely don’t want to give up those open 3s. And we’re going to try like heck not to give him those open 3s. But yes, it’s a concern, and we have a lot of respect from our group for his shooting ability.”

Paul made such a choice early on Tuesday night in the Clippers double-overtime game against the Nets. A switch left Justin Hamilton defending Paul out beyond the 3-point line. Generally, that’s when Paul turns on the jets and leaves a 7-footer behind as he relentlessly pursues the basket. Instead, Paul took the 3-pointer, shooting quickly and over Hamilton. He missed, but what’s notable is the altered process. The same thing happened on the final possession of the first half. A screen freed Paul, and only Hamilton stood between him and the basket. Instead of penetration, Paul checked his feet, saw he was behind the line, and drilled the shot.

“I try to take what they give me,” Paul said following the game. “They go in, I’m going to shoot them. If you go back and watch our game against them last time, they were going under screens a lot, so I was going to take advantage.”

The other Paul change inflating his PER is a steal percentage of 4.6 percent, which not only leads the NBA, but bests any of his four previous seasons leading the league in steal percentage — he topped out at 3.9 in both 2007-08 and 2008-09. The past two seasons, he’d been at 2.8 and 3.1 percent, so this is a huge leap forward in an area Paul already seemed to have maxed out. And it’s a big reason why the Clippers, who’d finished sixth in defensive efficiency last season, ranked second this year entering Tuesday night.

I asked Rivers whether taking some of the wear-and-tear out of Paul’s offensive game is having a carryover effect, making Paul a step faster later in games: “I don’t know,” Rivers said. “I know we probably have more defenders on the floor for him. And he’s not guarding the best player every night, either, which has really helped his defense.”

Paul, too, wasn’t sure if that impact was significant, though it may well have been harder to feel that way after a double-overtime loss on the road. “I don’t know. I just try to take whatever’s there,” a clearly fatigued Paul said. “I guard a lot of opposing point guards, too.”

Whether he was feeling it or not, though, the numbers tell the story of a reinvigorated Paul, especially late in games. Tuesday night was no different.

“My problem was I couldn’t shoot a jumper, so I had to go to the paint. He has the ability to shoot, so he can take advantage of it.” — Doc Rivers

The re-energized Paul jumped into a passing lane and streaked the other way late in the second quarter against the Nets, finding the trailing Paul Pierce with a perfect behind-the-back bounce pass. Pierce, fouled, missed the dunk, falling to the floor. In an instant, Paul was over, and mimicked giving Pierce CPR. Only one of them looked like a veteran player on a road trip, and it wasn’t Paul.

Paul had plenty left in the tank with less than five minutes to go, and the Clippers clinging to a 94-92 lead. Paul responded by calmly stepping to the top of the key and burying a 3. Under three minutes: Paul worked around a screen and buried another to tie the game at 102. At the other end, a Paul tipped pass led to a Nets turnover. Moments later, the Clippers took the lead.

And in the waning seconds of regulation, down three, Paul parked himself in the corner, pump-faked Trevor Booker, and drained another 3-pointer to tie the game at 107 and send it into overtime. It was his go-to shot down the stretch, again and again. He made four of seven on the night.

And on this night, Paul still had plenty of energy by the end of a second overtime, leaping in to grab a defensive rebound, draining a jumper to keep the game close in the final minute.

Whether it helps Paul go deeper into games regularly, Rivers acknowledged that the new Paul should allow him to go deeper into his career, something a 13-year NBA veteran like Rivers understands quite well.

“Yeah, for sure,” Rivers said. “Shooting a jumper is much easier than getting to the paint. My problem was I couldn’t shoot a jumper, so I had to go to the paint. He has the ability to shoot, so he can take advantage of it.”

Rivers’ false modesty is undercut by the numbers, incidentally. He shot 25.4 percent through age-25 from the perimeter, averaging just 0.3 attempts per game. From age 26 on, that improved to 33.7 percent, and he averaged two attempts per game. He topped 35 percent from 3-point range in three separate seasons, and two of those came after Rivers turned 31.

All of which is a useful but a secondary effect of this altered Paul, as Rivers pointed out. What matters is finally making that final leap. And so things like a change in perception won’t much matter to the Clippers if the second round of the playoffs is once again their destination.

So I asked Rivers: Does this version of Chris Paul make the Clippers better?

“Yeah,” Rivers replied without hesitation. “I like this version.” He broke into a big smile, the kind of joy that comes from watching a Hall of Famer evolve every single day. “I like all versions.”

Unless otherwise noted, all advanced stats were gathered from Basketball Reference.

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