Prospect Calibration: Second-year 3-and-D wings

There are multiple ways to assess and convey prospect analysis. There are rookie power rankings, the “rookie ladder”, top players under-23, and stock up/stock down formats. I find all of these too divisive and frankly absurd at this current juncture of the season, with such a limited sample. My goal here every week is to convey to you what I see from prospects 23-or-younger on film, which I’ll do tracking down clips and statistics to corroborate my in-game notes

The intention is for this to read as an in-depth skill breakdown and kind of an observation overview. If you’d like to see a specific player covered, let me know at @colezwicker.

Kelly Oubre’s enhanced role

Still just 20 years-old, Oubre is by far the youngest of the group here, and his shot mechanics are actually coming along quite nicely. His college shooting indicators weren’t especially strong but also weren’t outlier poor, converting 35.8 percent of 95 3-point attempts and shooting 71.8 percent from the foul line on 110 attempts. His stats weren’t great, but his form aesthetically exceed his indicators.

Read More: Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk is finally looking like an NBA prospect

Here, he catches on the hop, and even though he has a slight ball dip his motion is fluid, quick and high enough to shoot over a good closeout by hyper-athletic Victor Oladipo, ending with nice wrist action:

Later in the same game we see a carbon copy of the same motion from the same spot on the floor:

Oubre’s mechanics look consistent, and while he only sports a modest .94 points possession mark off spot-up finishing possessions, good for the 47th percentile, it’s a respectable improvement over last year’s mark.

Oubre is almost entirely a straight-line driver, lacking even average vision, handle and agility. But he’s a plus athlete and has good burst going downhill:

He rarely runs pick-and-rolls, mostly due to personnel fit next to ball dominant guars like John Wall and Bradley Beal, and when he does the reads aren’t complex:

Oubre adds additional value with his athleticism by way of slashing and just using his raw tools to make plays in energetic fashion. He’s an explosive run and jump athlete in space, and his ability to convert speed to vertical pop is a good fit running with Wall in transition:

Playing predominately as an off-ball weakside shooter, Oubre’s ability to create extra possessions is an added bonus. This hustle play to high point the ball with vertical athleticism and tip it out for a 3-point attempt is a valuable possession-extender:

Similarly, Oubre crashing down opportunistically on the weak side with no one boxing him out to convert the putback dunk also helps compensate for his lack of on-ball play:

Defensively, Oubre’s calling cards are his athleticism and 7-foot-2 wingspan. He has the physical tools to really thrive on that side of the ball, like utilizing his length in the passing lane here to create a steal and transition dunk opportunity:

You can see his lateral agility in the following clip, where he sits down and walls off the Omri Casspi drive, and is able to even swipe down to deflect the ball when Casspi brings it down:

You also see Oubre fail to contain the ball in a help situation once Ty Lawson blows by Trey Burke at the point of attack. It’s not Oubre’s man, but in that position he has to show better effort sliding his feet instead of reaching in.

Oubre’s main knock on defense is his general awareness off-ball, as he tends to drift and lose track of his man there, typical of most young wing players. He does show flashes of understanding, like in the following clip where he understands his assignment Andre Roberson isn’t a shooting threat, and crashes down stunting at Russell Westbrook in a prime scoring position under the basket when the Wizards double Jerami Grant:

Oubre definitely has the speed to track off screens. It’s more so the mental game that is holding him back. Here he shoots the gap on the Victor Oladipo pindown, and while Oladipo isn’t a shooting threat really to flare out and knock down the 3, not staying attached chasing Oladipo around the screen leaves Oubre out of position to contain the drive:

Later in the same game, Oubre gets a chance to check Westbrook at the point of attack and demonstrate his on ball prowess. Instead, he dies on the screen:

Overall, Oubre is starting to turn the corner incrementally over his last handful of games. Amassing 24 and 28 minutes against the Sacramento Kings and Oklahoma City Thunder respectively. Oubre is even rebounding at a respectable clip, throwing up 10 and 6 on the glass. Wizards coach Scott Brooks is preaching for Oubre to keep it simple via playing defense, bringing energy and making shots, and Oubre is starting to answer the call. He still floats in and out of games mentally without a killer motor, but the arrow is pointing up. At still only 31.8 percent from 3 for his career, per Basketball-Reference, there is room for sizable growth there especially.

Justin Anderson is seizing opportunity 

Unlike the 20 year-old Oubre with an athletic but not physically imposing build, Anderson is already 23 and is built like hybrid safety at a rock solid 228 pounds.  As an older player, Anderson’s stroke progress is more paramount at this juncture, and the results have been mixed:

Simply put, Anderson does not have a consistently fluid stroke. He deviates between shot arcs, and both his preparatory footwork and fluidity in his stroke just aren’t there on a consistent basis.

Here, he does a good job hauling in an off target pass using a shuffle step to create a semblance of rhythm:

On a similar play, this time catching on the hop, Anderson shoots a flat ball:

Here, he kicks his left leg out on the release, which could create a balance issue, even though he converts the shot with good wrist action:

This is probably the most fluid Anderson’s shot has looked, quickly relocating after the dribble-drive behind the arc and showing the full package: catching on the hop, a high release point and good elevation shooting right over Anthony Brown’s closeout:

Anderson has made just 32 of 129 career 3s, good for a dismal 24.8 percent. As only a career 35.7 percent 3-point shooter on 272 attempts in college, it’s unlikely that Anderson ever gets to league average from 3 as a pro, but even ascending into the lower 30s would be an enormous win.

As predominately a defense and energy contributor, less is more with Anderson. No one is confusing him with a playmaker, but in a limited straight line role he has enough juice burst-wise to get into the lane and has recently flashed the ability to make drop-off looks like this:

Here, the San Antonio Spurs have LaMarcus Aldridge on Anderson, and the latter blows by an inexplicably hard closeout with a fantastic first step for another nice drop-off look to Dwight Powell:

Anderson is a dynamic athlete north-south, and can really convert speed to powerful vertical explosion. Solomon Hill in the following clip essentially doubles Harrison Barnes off Anderson one pass away, and Anderson catches the ball already moving, leaving Hill in his wake:

Anderson doesn’t have great touch around the basket, but he’s flashed a runner on occasion that gives him a non-dunk finishing avenue in his arsenal:

And again (with a weird Space Jam magnetic roll):

Defense is where Anderson really makes his money as his combination of size, strength and athleticism allows him dynamic switching versatility. It’s rare that Kawhi Leonard doesn’t try to post up similarly sized players in the post, and on numerous occasions in that Spurs game, Kawhi wanted no part of Anderson’s strength there.

Anderson’s speed and athleticism is best showcased in his ability to navigate around screens and contest, even though he fouls in the following clip:

He’s just a tremendously physical and tough defender who accepts defending elite wings and has the tools to match. That’s not to say there are only positives though. Here, he tags Tristan Thompson on the roll as he should, but gets completely turned around and loses LeBron James on the cut:

Anderson has the speed, acceleration and length to cover ground and challenge shots effectively on closeouts, but his technique isn’t always consistent. Here, he leaves his feet, and even though he tries a last ditch attempt backhanded contest, Danny Green gets off an open look:

Changing direction quickly trying to close out full speed is probably the single hardest movement an NBA player has to refine, and Anderson still isn’t there:

You can again see his speed to stay on Green’s hip here shading baseline, but Anderson is expecting Bogut to Ice with baseline contain, which he doesn’t get:

Overall, Anderson is a good bet to be a “D-but-no-3” player who can impact a game through raw energy and defensive toughness and versatility. If he can get his shot into the lower 30s, the Dallas Mavericks definitely have something.

Anthony Brown’s second chance

After shooting a woeful 20 of 70 (28.6 percent) from 3 as a rookie for the Los Angeles Lakers, while not showing any ball skills of any kind, the Lakers waived Brown and his guaranteed second year salary this offseason. Brown proceeded to get drafted first overall in the recent NBA D-League draft, and due to injuries the desperate New Orleans Pelicans picked up the once promising 3-and-D prospect on a calculated two-year contract.

Brown got his first real burn against the Spurs and Lakers over the last week, and the results were predictably mixed. In his career at Stanford, Brown shot a very promising 40.3 percent from 3 on a healthy 541 total attempts and doubled down with a decent 75.1 percent free throw clip on 410 attempts. His shooting struggles last year could potentially be an outlier.

Brown actually has good mechanics, showing smoothness, a high release point and good wrist action:

Due to last season’s range ineptitude he’s also not respected, and will have an opportunity to convert open looks (this might have been a blown switch):

Brown has basically nothing off the bounce as a handler or passer, the former encapsulated in the following clip:

Thus, shooting and defense, the latter where he was promising as a rookie, will be paramount. Speaking of defense, Brown has decent speed and athleticism on that end to pair with above average length to contest:

You can see the common theme of struggling to close out to shooters changing direction apply to Brown here:

Brown doesn’t have Anderson’s strength or Oubre’s length, so he’ll struggle more to be an impactful defender without that enhanced versatility. You can see his lack of strength here with Lou Williams not getting dislodged at all going right through Brown for the finish:

The sample size is still incredibly small for Brown with only a few games under his belt, but he has the opportunity to seize a rotation role in New Orleans. His progress will be monitored closely.