The San Antonio Spurs’ strange home-road splits
By John Buhler
At first glance, it seems that the San Antonio Spurs are going to be just fine without Tim Duncan as their centerpiece. The Spurs are 15-4 in their first 19 games of the 2016-17 NBA season which puts them in second place in the NBA, only a game back of the Golden State Warriors (16-3), and on pace to win 65 games this season. San Antonio has carefully passed the torch from Duncan to Kawhi Leonard in another seamless transition on another leg of the never-ending Popovichian-Spurs relay.
The Spurs feel like a lock to have one of the best records in the NBA this year. In the early part of the season, San Antonio, Golden State, the Cleveland Cavaliers (13-4), and the Los Angeles Clippers (15-5) look to be the four teams most likely to vie for the 2016-17 NBA Championship.
Then again, no perfect team in the NBA exists this season. Golden State will have its issues with rim protection based on last summer’s roster construction. Los Angeles has never been to the Western Conference Finals and that wears on the Clippers constantly. Does Cleveland have the right mindset to repeat as NBA Champions? The Spurs aren’t elite at home…the Spurs aren’t elite at home?
Read More: Matt Barnes and Boogie Cousins behave during postponed game
Yes, the Spurs have not been totally buttoned-up at the AT&T Center this year. While San Antonio has gone a perfect 11-0 on the road this season, the Spurs are just 4-4 at home so far. They lost three of four games at one point in early November to the Utah Jazz (Nov. 1, 106-91), the Clippers (Nov. 5, 116-92), and the Houston Rockets (Nov. 9, 10-99). All three of those teams are likely to reach the 2017 Western Conference Playoffs and could win a playoff series. However, the Spurs’ most recent loss at home to the Orlando Magic (7-12) was not in that vein. San Antonio fell at home to the lowly Magic, 95-83 on Tuesday, Nov. 29.
The Spurs have been phenomenal away from home this season, but why have the been so inconsistent at home? Is it something tactical the opposition is exploiting or is it something psychological with the Spurs?
One could look to the head-to-head matchups in the four losses at home for the Spurs this season to find some understanding. Utah and Los Angeles can be physical on the glass and are stout defensively. These are two certain playoff teams that even great ones lose to on occasion. Houston plays at a break-neck speed offensively. Maybe an up-tempo pace of the Rockets isn’t ideal for an aging Spurs team anyway? The Magic may have a frontcourt logjam, but can occasionally exert its dominance on the glass. Orlando is not a playoff team, but the Magic can win games with defensive prowess in this league.
When looking for trends in the Spurs’ strange home/road splits this season, there’s not a lot of striking data that reveals what ails San Antonio at the AT&T Center. When comparing team performances in win/loss splits, obviously everything is going to look worse in the loss category. However, one thing does seem to stand out about the Spurs when they play at home: they struggle to score.
In the Spurs’ eight home games this season, they are averaging only 99.8 points per 100 possessions, about on par with the Memphis Grizzlies anemic’ full season mark . On the road, San Antonio is more inclined to let it rip offensively, as the Spurs are averaging a league-best 114.8 points per 100 possessions.
Related Story: Chris Paul found a way to extend his prime
It’s easy to look at those numbers and assume some sort of pressure or tightness at home, maybe rebuilding a post-Duncan legacy is a little harder when your own fans are watching? But the Spurs have proven over the year to be psychological granite. They’ve played some very good defenses at home and so maybe this is just a statistical fluke that will even out throughout the season.
They better hope so, or home court advantage in the playoffs isn’t going to mean much.